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Wintry 1/7/17-1/10/17 Winter Storm

Who cares about the global models ? This is a America sang it and we have to support our own model the GFS.


 
swbamaweatherguy said:
Does anyone have the Map for ice off the 12z GFS


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Wow, GEFS with 14 good storms here, and 8 big ones.
 
SoutheastRidge said:
Who cares about the global models ? This is a America sang it and we have to support our own model the GFS.
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This seems appropriate here.... "Make Models great again" haha
 
Can someone post the gefs please?
 
586d2d289818b_ScreenShot2017-01-04at12_11_54PM.png.6d3c28e18618d777b47979ec2326173e.png
 
ARCC said:
Just a warning, the map from the 12z GFS that Storm posted earlier which had just north of Montgomery getting 4-6" was showing ZR and IP. Don't put too much stock in the snow totals if you can't see the soundings. Ok there is my most pessimistic post today, enjoy.
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when did I post a map showing those amounts. I posted the gfs run from pivotal and the gefs mean

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ARCC said:
Just a warning, the map from the 12z GFS that Storm posted earlier which had just north of Montgomery getting 4-6" was showing ZR and IP. Don't put too much stock in the snow totals if you can't see the soundings. Ok there is my most pessimistic post today, enjoy.
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At this point in time what is your thinking for our area.
 
I think when all is said and done, there will be more interaction between the shortwave and the GOM...Just my opinion
 
The 0z Euro has a more aggressive look on the Euro than GFS. The Euro also has the shield of the moisture more north. We should see a similar run today on the Euro or better.

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do we have idea of the general start time snow etc will start on Friday?
 
the elephant in the room that no one wants to talk about is the huge model war between the gfs/gefs vs euro/eps....we see it almost every winter. will mean victory or heartbreak for many .



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tarheels2 said:
do we have idea of the general start time snow etc will start on Friday?
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That's what I'm wondering too, for N GA for me though.
 
Channel 2 here is showing snow with the arctic front Thursday Night for parts of North Ga then the second bigger round Friday evening and Saturday. Very interesting.


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Storm5 said:
the elephant in the room that no one wants to talk about is the huge model war between the gfs/gefs vs euro/eps....we see it almost every winter. will mean victory or heartbreak for many .



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And with the consistency of the GFS, I think in the end it will be the winner. It s just not backing down.

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Is it the overall strength or lack of strength of the energy that causes it to be a late bloomer? Basically meaning it takes the weaker piece of energy longer to get organized when it reaches the gulf?
 
Boy if the GFS ends up being wrong on this it would be a huge setback for that model and I dont think I would ever trust it again
 
Storm5 said:
the elephant in the room that no one wants to talk about is the huge model war between the gfs/gefs vs euro/eps....we see it almost every winter. will mean victory or heartbreak for many .



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Team GFS!
 
Euro about to run. Im gonna say its stays more of the same, and we stay in a battle
 
GFS has been consistent the past couple of days. But it also showed over a foot of snow here a couple days ago, and then did it's going south and back north dance.
 
Will the Euro having many holding hands or raising pitch forks...
 
SoutheastRidge said:
Boy if the GFS ends up being wrong on this it would be a huge setback for that model and I dont think I would ever trust it again
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yeah especially since it has been so consistent. if it turns out to be wrong... then it has been consistently wrong... and is therefore garbage
 
mydoortotheworld said:
SoutheastRidge said:
Boy if the GFS ends up being wrong on this it would be a huge setback for that model and I dont think I would ever trust it again
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yeah especially since it has been so consistent. if it turns out to be wrong... then it has been consistently wrong... and is therefore garbage
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If it verifies does that mean we should never trust the Euro again since it is showing the opposite?
 
Xtreme weather said:
Will the Euro having many holding hands or raising pitch forks...
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lol

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here comes the euro

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I made a mistake a looked at the 12z NAM raw for BHM, depressing...but also I remember what this past weekend looked like at times and we got 3" of rain
 
Anyone else having problems posting pictures from Tapatalk? I wanted to post the latest update from Nashville.


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mydoortotheworld said:
SoutheastRidge said:
Boy if the GFS ends up being wrong on this it would be a huge setback for that model and I dont think I would ever trust it again
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yeah especially since it has been so consistent. if it turns out to be wrong... then it has been consistently wrong... and is therefore garbage
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It actually changed significantly Monday night so it's only been consistent for a day
 
I really hope Corey got his dancing on today
 
Will the snow they are talking about for norther Alabama,N Ga. and Ten Thursday night
. effect anything
 
FLO said:
mydoortotheworld said:
SoutheastRidge said:
Boy if the GFS ends up being wrong on this it would be a huge setback for that model and I dont think I would ever trust it again
Click to expand...

yeah especially since it has been so consistent. if it turns out to be wrong... then it has been consistently wrong... and is therefore garbage
Click to expand...
If it verifies does that mean we should never trust the Euro again since it is showing the opposite?
Click to expand...


Euro will be hard to budge from its throne after it nailed Hurricane Sandy.


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A guy on our board posted this. Sorry if it was already posted here.


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SoutheastRidge said:
Boy if the GFS ends up being wrong on this it would be a huge setback for that model and I dont think I would ever trust it again
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You do know that models are guidance and not forecasts?   They are tools one uses to make a forecast, they are not gospel.
 
I think this storm has sped up! Aren't most models showing a Friday daytime start, esp AL, GA
 
ATLWxFan said:
FLO said:
mydoortotheworld said:
SoutheastRidge said:
Boy if the GFS ends up being wrong on this it would be a huge setback for that model and I dont think I would ever trust it again
Click to expand...

yeah especially since it has been so consistent. if it turns out to be wrong... then it has been consistently wrong... and is therefore garbage
Click to expand...
If it verifies does that mean we should never trust the Euro again since it is showing the opposite?
Click to expand...


Euro will be hard to budge from its throne after it nailed Hurricane Sandy.


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Hurricanes and winter storms are two different things

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Tarheel1 said:
I think this storm has sped up! Aren't most models showing a Friday daytime start, esp AL, GA
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Watch it roll in right around rush hour for ATL.  Gonna be taking MARTA on Friday one way or the other.
 
bouncycorn said:
WPC says toss the ukie
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they are tossing the 00z run. not the ukie in general

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Tarheel1 said:
I think this storm has sped up! Aren't most models showing a Friday daytime start, esp AL, GA
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It has sped up some, less interaction with the northern stream.

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