Wintry 1/7/17-1/10/17 Winter Storm

[olhausen]

I can't download my profile picture from Tapatalk for the life of me. Every time I try it says download failed. I checked other sites to make sure it wasn't Tapatalk and they worked fine so it's definitely southern wx. My profile picture comes out sideways when trying to Download from the site instead of Tapatalk.


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[SD]

Now I know how Ronda Rousey felt on Friday. You see the punch coming and there isn't a thing you can do to stop it

 

[Ghicks]

I need my Prozac

 

[Arcc]

Come on y'all, its still four days out. This ain't supposed to fall apart until day three.

 

[Parker]

We are gonna be fine guys!!

 

[Brick Tamland]

Hope this is just a garbage run.

 

[Shawn]

Now I know how Ronda Rousey felt on Friday. You see the punch coming and there isn't a thing you can do to stop it

Atleast we had more than 48 seconds of excitement.

 

[Webberweather53]

Yea that's a big shift. A few models thus far have gone more towards the Euro, hopefully the infusion of some upper air data into this tomorrow will give us a better idea of what the northern stream disturbance is doing and its one of the only legitimate shots we have of reversing this trend, we saw what happened this trough over the Pacific NW was sampled over the southern Yukon earlier this past week, granted we probably won't see that kind of change here, but you get the point. oth, the Euro solution really isn't too bad, at least over the Carolinas, and it's dangerously close to something formidable over more of the SE US. As I mentioned earlier, issues with isentropic lifting will be another major stumbling block guidance will have to contend with even inside day 2-3... 

18z NAM

0z NAM

 

[Bsudweather]

I sure wouldn't put much stock into the NAM 4-5 days out

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[skbl17]

The 0z runs will be very, very interesting. CMC runs in about an hour.

 

[Metwannabe]

I don't know but to me this NAM run just looked wonky.... maybe it's a trend but looks like trash to me. Channeling my inner JB, garbage in garbage out

 

[Psalm 148:8]

Come on y'all, its still four days out. This ain't supposed to fall apart until day three.

Good to see ya !  Yea....i will give it another day or two before I cliff dive....with a parachute that is

 

[HartselleWeather]

Why are some much panic in the nam espically at the long range part of the nam.. No panics guys

 

[GeorgiaGirl]

The NAM is pretty unreliable outside of 48 hours but the issue is...the Euro has been showing the northern stream being too strong and shearing out this wave too much for the Gulf to be able to recover it for several runs.

Gotta hope that the Euro is at least a little out to lunch. Y'all did say that the system looked very close to releasing before it just got too sheared out on it's latest run (a while ago now). So maybe it is able to make it in a future run.

 

[Webberweather53]

Yea that's a big shift. A few models thus far have gone more towards the Euro, hopefully the infusion of some upper air data into this tomorrow will give us a better idea of what the northern stream disturbance is doing and its one of the only legitimate shots we have of reversing this trend, we saw what happened this trough over the Pacific NW was sampled over the southern Yukon earlier this past week, granted we probably won't see that kind of change here, but you get the point. oth, the Euro solution really isn't too bad, at least over the Carolinas, and it's dangerously close to something formidable over more of the SE US. As I mentioned earlier, issues with isentropic lifting will be another major stumbling block guidance will have to contend with even inside day 2-3... 

18z NAM

0z NAM

The NAM itself doesnt run out to 4-5 days, after 84 HR it becomes the DGEX and we know that model is lol

 

[Shawn]

Btw guys, the multi quote system is currently not working (and likelly wont) in the quick reply box. When you hit "reply" on someones post, it will take you to a new post screen and work.

 

[Storm5]

True the system is still 3 to 4 days out but the energy interaction is the key and that happens around hour 48. so it's not smart to just dismiss runs. that don't show us what we won't the important part to all this starts within 2 days

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[whatalife]

I don't know but to me this NAM run just looked wonky.... maybe it's a trend but looks like trash to me. Channeling my inner JB, garbage in garbage out

What looked wonky to you?


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[Webberweather53]

The "panic" is in the shorter range of the NAM where it's actually reliable (< 48 HR)....

 

[deltadog03]

It does/should just at least make you think its possible that outcome happens...I look at the H5 map and its like...hmmmm...I have ever really seen energy stretch out like that before? I mean, I can't remember seeing a H5 map like that with the energy...I prob have and don't remember.