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Wintry 1/7/17-1/10/17 Winter Storm

Storm5 said:
same result for those of to the west as 00z . but I'll take that run .

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Baby Steps, Colder and slower one yard at a time they say
 
Still not there, but closer. still have some time
 
Storm5 said:
same result for those of to the west as 00z . but I'll take that run .

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It's a step better for those to the west. But Still doesn't get cranking until just east of AL and GA.
 
very little for north georgia. Nothing like the gfs

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Nothing like being the 78 hour bullseye
 
Can us nervous Nellies get a map? Thanks!
 
Big hit again for much of NC with RDU not quite as much as prior run. Charlotte more on this run.
 
actually ends up ok for NE georgia

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Snow map please and 1000-500mb maps from 12z Euro

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Storm5 said:
very little for north georgia. Nothing like the gfs

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Just a degree or two away from glory. Hopefully the colder trend continues with the EURO. Precip shield is a little more north than 0Z and puts ATL closer to the heaviest QPF. Great trends. I would say 1-3" in Atlanta with isolated spots of 4-5". Winter storm watch will be needed IMO.
 
It appears, step by step the Euro is trending south. I bet that we find a middle solution between models by tomorrow.
 
Euro shifts south, GFS north...NAM still scratching its head.
 
ecmwf_tsnow_raleigh_15.png
:)
 
RichardJacks said:
As we go through the next 24 hours, I think it will be important to watch the actual s/w as it slides down the west coast...the more rounded and tilted it looks, the better for Alabama, prob GA too.
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Thank you.  It's hard to tell what's going on because most people don't tell where they are from.  You can't follow the play by plays.  Storm 5, ACCU35.  RollTide. Parker, a few others but it's tough.  So I thank you again.
 
EURO gives Atlanta just a little over 1/2 inch of QPF. If it's cold enough that would be about 4-5 inches of snow. QPF is now very similar to the GFS. Get the 850's and surface temps a little colder around Atlanta and you get the GFS solution basically.
 
modelwatcher said:
Storm5 said:
very little for north georgia. Nothing like the gfs

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Just a degree or two away from glory. Hopefully the colder trend continues with the EURO. Precip shield is a little more north than 0Z and puts ATL closer to the heaviest QPF. Great trends. I would say 1-3" in Atlanta with isolated spots of 4-5". Winter storm watch will be needed IMO.
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I'm not sure FFC will be convinced just yet. Maybe tomorrow.


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A few days ago, I mentioned that the models will be fluctuating with the position of low. That's normal from modeling, see it all the time.

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GEFS shift north seems bigger than the Euro's shift south....
 
OK what about map for little west too
 
For the Chattanooga folks...

I'm hoping the hi-res models that aren't quite yet in range bring us some love, but this is the stark model reality right now...

DDXpogoCvCM7xMsq6
 
bricks heart won't be handle the mixing issues that are right at his doorstep ..... omgd I don't know if I could handle brick getting a few inches while to his nw gets crushed

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HixsonWX said:
stormcentral said:
Lol WTVC channel 9 calling for a dusting KCHA & SE TN ?
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Unfortunately, that is what most of the guidance I've seen is pointing to... Even the Euro is not showing the "up to" 3 inches that WRCB is saying. I'm hoping the Hi-Res models save us, but right now I'm having a hard time getting on board with anyone that  says more than an inch for CHA. Obviously, things can still change and I hope they do!

EDIT: out of the American models I've seen so far, the NAM 4km is the big winner for Chattanooga with a whopping 0.725"...

6 members of the GEFS mean give us snow.
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Maybe the GFS is on to something....I think.
 
I think the GFS will stay the course and the Euro will continue to come South. I have nothing to base this on other than my heart.
 
ecmwf_ptype_th_raleigh_13.png


Phew that was a close for RDU lol...
 
Euro definitely ticked a little SE that run...
 
Storm5 said:
bricks heart won't be handle the mixing issues that are right at his doorstep ..... omgd I don't know if I could handle brick getting a few inches while to his nw gets crushed

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That is am impressive warm surge at 850....looks like I might go to a mix for a while
 
I am loving that little spot of 3" or so in my area lol. Better run I believe.
 
precip was a little further north this run I'm my area . I'll take since the euro has been the furthest south and shutting us out run after run

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