Shawn said:
Aha.... that explains it. Thanks
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Aha.... that explains it. Thanks
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
metwannabe, couldn't quote your post for some reason, but someone at the there board said the same thing about that NAM run.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
The NAM at 66 just looked strange and unrealistic. The heights are flattened out and I think you see both our system and the northern stream fused together then. Does it even start coming down from there in the rest of the NAM?
bingo , sometime wishcasting overtakes realityWebberweather53 said:
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Cad Wedge NC
Member
Nope, we can't just toss this NAM run. It might just have legs.
whatalife said:
I didn't like it Lol.... no seeing such a strong s/w intact @48 then elongated and just stretched apart so quickly, idk I'm no met just the overall look so drastically different and it's the NAM
W
WeatherLC
Guest
Isn't the problem here that more models are starting to agree with one solution (EURO) vs the NAMS reliability? If the GFS was the one against us getting a storm, would we still be putting stock into it?
sigwx
Member
So it is all about the NAM............ NAMit
whatalife
Moderator
metwannabe said:
It does become very elongated that's for sure.
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Webberweather53 said:
Agree and during the first 48hrs it wasn't as good as before but wasn't horrible either, definitely more Euro like but then after that just gets obliterated
NCSNOW
Member
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I could go through lot of history suprise NC hits bigger than forecast due to isentrophic lifting like webber alluded to, but we can save that till the Thurs , Friday discussions. Just another card to play, argue for more snow after it gets established precisely what we are dealing with.
Caution don't think the euro has every thing pegged precisely to the exact point 5 days out. It'll have some more tweaks itself. Think ukmet is where all this ends up at when the smoke settles if u put a gun to my head right now.
Caution don't think the euro has every thing pegged precisely to the exact point 5 days out. It'll have some more tweaks itself. Think ukmet is where all this ends up at when the smoke settles if u put a gun to my head right now.
I will say this...the NAM is doing an absolutely AWFUL job right now in the short term. Does it mean anything? Heck IDK.... the 6 hour rain totals.. (0z to 6z) so about another 3 hours worth...it has me only getting maybe .30" of rain at most....I am at .85" since 6pm or so.... storm total just over 6"
Nam0806
Member
Storm5 said:
I'd agree with you, and I'm not necessarily wishcasting, but can you define "reliable" within 48 hours?
Of course, the current guidance is all we have to go by at this point, and this is what the NAM is showing. We'll see how much it changes over the next few runs, but since this was a massive change from the prior runs, I'm more inclined to follow other runs to see how much they agree before giving more credence to this solution.
NCSNOW said:I could go through lot of history suprise NC hits bigger than forecast due to isentrophic lifting like webber alluded to, but we can save that till the Thurs , Friday discussions. Just another card to play, argue for more snow after it gets established precisely what we are dealing with.
Caution don't think the euro has every thing pegged precisely to the exact point 5 days out. It'll have some more tweaks itself. Think ukmet is where all this ends up at when the smoke settles if u put a gun to my head right now.
I'll see your isentropic lift and raise you Gulf convection!
Cad Wedge NC
Member
We better hope the models ingest some data tonight to change the trend. Because right now, it doesn't look good for us. I will not throw in the towel on this one just yet. However, if the GFS shows a Euro-like solution tonight, it might be time to call in the dogs.
I disabled the "quick reply" until we get the multi-quote system fixed so users won't have problems. Just hit the "New Reply" button instead if you're on the website/PC. : You can still click reply on someone's post and it will quote.
You can still click reply on someone's post and it will quote.Cary_Snow95
Member
The para nam looks good Lmao
DadOfJax
Member
NorthGAWinterWx said:
It's not 4 or 5 days out. Its within 48 hours of the potential s/w interaction with the northern stream...so very much in the wheelhouse of the NAM...especially since it looks almost identical to the Euro. People here with decent (or more) knowledge has said this all day....the Euro is king for a reason, and I have a good feeling we are about to be reminded why.