Wintry 1/7/17-1/10/17 Winter Storm

[Shawn]

it appears the euro is slower bring precipitation in here.  doesn't really get here until after midnight sat am...all others are showing friday afternoon.  I think the euro is only have a little overrunning precipitation back toward TN and northern ms and al....euro really doesn't push much of that, but really starts to crank it once the low gets going.  Still some big questions on what is going to happen.  GFS builds in a high and delivers more cold down before hand, plus flatter so the cold can push.  EURO starts that, but since its stronger overall, it starts tilting everything from NE to SW and the cold push stops until the low gets going.  By that time, its almost game over for all outside of NGA MTNS, upstate and NC.....just how I see it right now.

I agree Chris, i suspect the slower solution on the euro is one likely reason why it was a tad colder across the SE US, allowed the oncoming arctic airmass to settle in a bit more

ya, agreed....I am still torn on the slower solution vs faster one.  VERY tough call.  I favor the euro because its the euro...however, the GFS is better in progressive patterns.  with a more amped solution, and once that flow starts to tilt, if your not on the cold side, your likely not going to get much snow.  with a flatter gfs like solution the cold can push, but it will shut yall out somewhat in NC (I mean, it still snows, just not like the euro showing) since we won't have a storm really trying to crank and get close to the coast for yall.

I definitely am as well, more torn now in seeing the CMC/ECMWF/UKMET look just a hair flatter, but in the short range the vort max in the west is amplifying a bit more, and that could eventually offset some of the flattening we've seen in those models of late. I think somewhere between the I-95 and I-85 corridors in NC is sitting pretty atm...

 

[Shawn]

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[Shawn]

SREF Member MBP4 gives CHA 9 inches! Grasping at straws... lol...

 

[Shawn]

@webberweather53 what are your thoughts on BHM to ATL area?

 

[Shawn]

Webber, are you confident that areas north and northeast of ATL will at least see some flurries ?

 

[Shawn]

Webber, are you confident that areas north and northeast of ATL will at least see some flurries ?

Not Webber, but yes

 

[Shawn]

I'll take the 12z runs for AL again dusting to 1" looks good be happy lol

Are you still in Calhoun?

Yes

Cool....here's hoping we at least get the 1"

Right next door in Cleburne County.

 

[Shawn]

Rather have no watches/advisory/warnings best winter precip....vs them and get nothing lol

I think that is what caused the nightmare in 2014 for Atlanta. Lack of preparedness and over conservative views on snow caused people to be stuck in traffic for excessive amounts of times and also had kids stuck in school overnight.

Goes to show just how fickle and how little skill we have in dealing with wintry events in the Deep South who knew .10 or less of precip would have caused such major issues. Lesson learned from that event was the accretion process that was experienced in AL and GA during that event. BMX will probably go with a watch this afternoon or evening and if nec. Upgrade to WWA tomorrow sometime.

 

[Shawn]

SREF Member MBP4 gives CHA 9 inches! Grasping at straws... lol...

I will pay whatever is needed for this outcome...

 

[Shawn]

FFC upped my accumulation to 2.1" from 0.7" earlier. I think they are growing in confidence, but they haven't updated their AFD yet. Obviously amounts and the overall forecast can change, but it's just an observation of the forecast.

Did you get that from a map they put out ?

I clicked on my area off the website and looked in the hourly forecast. The window for greatest snow ATM is from 7pm Friday to 1pm Saturday.

Shows 2.1" here also. I would take 2" and be happy until next winter.

Same for me two miles west of PDK

 

[Shawn]

it appears the euro is slower bring precipitation in here.  doesn't really get here until after midnight sat am...all others are showing friday afternoon.  I think the euro is only have a little overrunning precipitation back toward TN and northern ms and al....euro really doesn't push much of that, but really starts to crank it once the low gets going.  Still some big questions on what is going to happen.  GFS builds in a high and delivers more cold down before hand, plus flatter so the cold can push.  EURO starts that, but since its stronger overall, it starts tilting everything from NE to SW and the cold push stops until the low gets going.  By that time, its almost game over for all outside of NGA MTNS, upstate and NC.....just how I see it right now.

I agree Chris, i suspect the slower solution on the euro is one likely reason why it was a tad colder across the SE US, allowed the oncoming arctic airmass to settle in a bit more

ya, agreed....I am still torn on the slower solution vs faster one.  VERY tough call.  I favor the euro because its the euro...however, the GFS is better in progressive patterns.  with a more amped solution, and once that flow starts to tilt, if your not on the cold side, your likely not going to get much snow.  with a flatter gfs like solution the cold can push, but it will shut yall out somewhat in NC (I mean, it still snows, just not like the euro showing) since we won't have a storm really trying to crank and get close to the coast for yall.

I definitely am as well, more torn now in seeing the CMC/ECMWF/UKMET look just a hair flatter, but in the short range the vort max in the west is amplifying a bit more, and that could eventually offset some of the flattening we've seen in those models of late. I think somewhere between the I-95 and I-85 corridors in NC is sitting pretty atm...

I would agree with that...if there is any delay in the precipitation getting here that would be great as the cold can push in more....EURO was colder this run for sure...same with the GFS...

 

[Shawn]

For the Marietta, GA, area, does 70% chance for 1"+ and 20% chance for 3"+ sound reasonable as of now? Any opinions?

 

[Shawn]

@ SER & rhart

It's probably a pretty good bet if your at or NE of ATL near I-85 that you'll at least see a trace of snow, inch or two certainly a reasonable possibility esp the further NE you go towards Greenville-Spartanburg...

 

[Shawn]

I think somewhere between the I-95 and I-85 corridors in NC is sitting pretty atm...

Hopefully along US 1. 

 

[Shawn]

Thanks Eric. Personally, I am very torn here around Columbia, SC. There's going to be a dividing line somewhere close from the data I have looked at. Selfishly hoping for a slower onset of precipitation, weaker.

 

[Shawn]

Not looking worth a flip for northwest AL. Looking for a northwest trend that doesn't seem to be coming.

 

[Shawn]

For the Marietta, GA, area, does 70% chance for 1"+ and 20% chance for 3"+ sound reasonable as of now? Any opinions?

I would guess lower for both and include the possibility of under 1". Just based on what the models seem to be showing right now


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[Shawn]

Here is a quote from Birmingham's Mickey Ferguson this morning: "A lot of questions to answer. Here's the first: Winter Storm? I don't think this system qualifies for a Winter Storm based on this morning's model data. Now, will we get some snow? That is a possibility. It could also be mixed with rain initially and then change over to light snow. But I just don't see the potential that we experienced with our last major winter storm event. But we said that last time, didn't we? Still it's my humble opinion that this will not be a major winter event."

 

[Shawn]

While out to lunch I noticed the roads are now salted up here. Unfortunately I'll have plenty of cold air but not a lot of moisture up here. Still I've seen many times where I can squeeze out an inch with light snow showers off and on throughout the day do to my elevation being at almost 1,000 feet. I'll just have to hope that first wave over performs cause it doesn't look like the second wave is going to be anywhere near my area.

Hi, off topic but I am attempting to fix your avatar.  Seems it's not on the server anymore.  Do you know which one it was?

Thanks for pointing that out Shawn as I didn't even notice it. I reloaded it and it seems it's fixed now

 

[Shawn]

So is the Gatlinburg area shut out?

 

[Shawn]

@ SER & rhart

It's probably a pretty good bet if your at or NE of ATL near I-85 that you'll at least see a trace of snow, inch or two certainly a reasonable possibility esp the further NE you go towards Greenville-Spartanburg...

Wow, you are a lot more conservative than a meteorologist in ATL on the other board (Cheeznado). He is 100% confident ATL will have accumulating snow with 1-4", with the higher totals north and northeast of atl.

 

[Shawn]

Who posted the Cobb algorithm site last night I need it.

 

[Shawn]

Montgomery in house model I guess rpm shows freezing line just to Montgomery north east.

 

[Shawn]

I'm down with the 12z eps

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[Shawn]

I like the chances of at the very least, what WPC is predicting as the low track to be close to right.

 

[Shawn]

12z eps

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[Shawn]

EPS is much better.

 

[Shawn]

Cobb bufkit still giving .5-1" for central AL

 

[Shawn]

FFC AFD out via Twitter ... reading now.

 

[Shawn]

Looks like the EPS increased some.

 

[Shawn]

FFC AFD out via Twitter ... reading now.

Leaning GFS and GEFS ...

 

[Shawn]

EPS means trying to get the 1.5-2 inch line down to Atlanta lol. I like that it's trending snowier for the area though.

 

[Shawn]

Looks like the EPS increased some.

Looks great for your are brick

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[Shawn]

FFC leaning towards GFS saying the Euro is trending closer to the GFS. Looks like widespread 2-3" or more in most of North GA.

 

[Shawn]

Confidence for this event is increasing, with low to medium
confidence on location and accumulations, and medium confidence on
timing. Several of the 12z model runs are beginning to indicate
the potential for light winter precip to begin Friday morning
(potentially before sunrise) across generally north Georgia. Amounts
should be light. Rain chances will increase from the south
through the day Friday as surface low feature lifts out of the
northern Gulf of Mexico. Cold temperatures will continue to drop
across north Georgia, combining with this moisture to promote a
transition from rain to snow, generally Friday evening. A switch
over to all snow is expected overnight and early Saturday for
areas generally north of a line from Columbus to Macon to
Swainsboro. Currently, the greatest potential for accumulating
snow is along and north of this line, with the swath of highest
accumulations extending from the AL/GA line (along the I-20
corridor) through the metro Atlanta area and into northeast GA
(including the NE GA mountains). In this area, 2-3 inches of snow
are possible with isolated higher amounts. Expect this snow,
particularly across north GA to be dry in nature, and have opted
to go with a 8 to 1 ratio of water equivalent to snow. Future
forecast packages may opt for an even higher ratio, producing
additional snow accumulation. A few things to note: due to the
position of the moisture, far NW GA is only expected to see around
1 inch of accumulation or less, and in portions of central
Georgia where snow is forecast, extended periods of rain or
rain/snow mix would result in lower snowfall accumulations.

Vertical profiles are suggesting a thick saturated layer overnight
Friday into Saturday morning, all below 0C. The combination of
this deep moisture layer and the nearly dry adiabatic lapse rates
suggest that the environment may support bands of heavy
precipitation, at times convective in nature. As of now, have
kept precipitation wording to either rain or snow, but will need
to monitor how future models are handling the evolution of the
event.

 

[Shawn]

@ SER & rhart

It's probably a pretty good bet if your at or NE of ATL near I-85 that you'll at least see a trace of snow, inch or two certainly a reasonable possibility esp the further NE you go towards Greenville-Spartanburg...

Wow, you are a lot more conservative than a meteorologist in ATL on the other board (Cheeznado).  He is 100% confident ATL will have accumulating snow with 1-4", with the higher totals north and northeast of atl.

I wouldn't say that but I'm definitely thinking somewhere along the lines of 1-3" ish. It probably sounded like I was being much more conservative there, so pardon me for the misconstrued connotation

 

[Shawn]

FFC says 2-3 for ATL metro I-20 and north.


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[Shawn]

Looks like the EPS increased some.

Yeah Rdu still fairs well. Def shifted SE though with the mean. GFS is gonna give some too i believe

 

[Shawn]

For all new members in here, once again welcome. Just to let you know some of us has been on here for a long time and are willing to answer any Questions you may have about weather or this potential winter storm. There are many on here who is very knowledgeable about westher, particularly 3 guys that I give credit too, 3 guys that mentor me from the start, when I started this forum years ago. SD, Storm5, Delta. These guys are the pros, please respect them as they will guide you through your learning.

 

[Shawn]

For the Marietta, GA, area, does 70% chance for 1"+ and 20% chance for 3"+ sound reasonable as of now? Any opinions?

I would guess lower for both and include the possibility of under 1". Just based on what the models seem to be showing right now


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 Thanks. You obviously don't trust the GFS solution. I had 30% chance of under one inch at Marietta. Maybe it is really closer to 50%. Maybe 10% chance for 3"+ is more reflective of the model consensus.