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The GFS hasn't consistently shown the same outcome but it has consistently shown the same idea and now that I've taken a brief look at the other models, those show the same idea too. There are a few tweaks but the same idea is there on the models I can read (the only one I can't is the Euro as I don't pay for it).
The GFS shows the disturbance in the west just sitting there until Thursday and then instead of it really fully coming east, a piece of it breaks off and it starts interacting with a piece of energy in the GOM. It eventually converges into a good looking system but it's a little stringy at first.
I wonder what would happen if the disturbance in the west was able to fully come east and ended up phasing with the disturbance we're seeing in the GOM?
The GFS shows the disturbance in the west just sitting there until Thursday and then instead of it really fully coming east, a piece of it breaks off and it starts interacting with a piece of energy in the GOM. It eventually converges into a good looking system but it's a little stringy at first.
I wonder what would happen if the disturbance in the west was able to fully come east and ended up phasing with the disturbance we're seeing in the GOM?
JtSmarts said:Shawn said:FLO said:Shawn said:FLO said:
Find it hard to believe we get over an inch of liquid as all snow. The para gfs from 06z shows around half an inch as snow for a chunk of us.. but.. The cut off line of snow is getting very close though. Here:
Yea I am losing faith. CAE is always on the wrong side of that snow line, so I expect nothing less.
Well, temps may not be handled completely right by these models so there's that. CAE seemed confident last night that the guidance was a bit warm. I've learned to use Newberry as a dividing line over the years. Sadly.
Newberry almost always hits the jackpot.
Exactly, 20 miles to my N.
Shawn said:Just wait until ground temps & wet rainy ground talk starts up soon.
LOL yup been with a few here since the John Oldshue/Daniel Lamb days 15+ years ago...damn I feel old lol
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH TRACKING TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FRI AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST SAT WITH SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OUT OF EASTERN GULF TO EAST COAST.
PREFERENCE: 12Z UKMET/NAM/ECMWF (REP. 00Z ECENS MEAN) CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE
19Z UPDATE: THE 12Z ECMWF REMAINS THE MOST AMPLIFIED AS THE TROF CROSSES THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHEAST...YET HAS TEMPERED TOWARD THE ECENS MEAN AND THE 12Z UKMET OVERALL PROVIDING SOME REDUCED SPREAD AND A FLATTER SOLUTION TO THE DEVELOPING SURFACE WAVE OFFSHORE ON SAT. THE 12Z GEFS ALSO TRENDED FAVORABLY COMPARED TO THE GFS TOWARD A MORE AMPLIFIED AND NEARER COAST PRESENTATION. WHILE IT REMAINS FLAT COMPARED TO THE MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE THIS IS PROVIDING SOME CONFIDENCE TOWARD SOMETHING OF A MORE COMMON SOLUTION. THE 12Z UKMET MUCH LIKE THE 00Z AND THE 12Z NAM ARE MOST MIDDLE GROUND TO HAVE SOME CONFIDENCE IN KEEPING WITH THE PREFERENCE. A BLEND OF THE 12Z NAM/ECMWF/UKMET BEST REPRESENTS THE PREFERRED 00Z ECENS MEAN. CONFIDENCE REMAINS SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE AS THE SPREAD REMAINS MODERATE AND VARIABLE.
PREFERENCE: 12Z UKMET/NAM/ECMWF (REP. 00Z ECENS MEAN) CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE
19Z UPDATE: THE 12Z ECMWF REMAINS THE MOST AMPLIFIED AS THE TROF CROSSES THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHEAST...YET HAS TEMPERED TOWARD THE ECENS MEAN AND THE 12Z UKMET OVERALL PROVIDING SOME REDUCED SPREAD AND A FLATTER SOLUTION TO THE DEVELOPING SURFACE WAVE OFFSHORE ON SAT. THE 12Z GEFS ALSO TRENDED FAVORABLY COMPARED TO THE GFS TOWARD A MORE AMPLIFIED AND NEARER COAST PRESENTATION. WHILE IT REMAINS FLAT COMPARED TO THE MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE THIS IS PROVIDING SOME CONFIDENCE TOWARD SOMETHING OF A MORE COMMON SOLUTION. THE 12Z UKMET MUCH LIKE THE 00Z AND THE 12Z NAM ARE MOST MIDDLE GROUND TO HAVE SOME CONFIDENCE IN KEEPING WITH THE PREFERENCE. A BLEND OF THE 12Z NAM/ECMWF/UKMET BEST REPRESENTS THE PREFERRED 00Z ECENS MEAN. CONFIDENCE REMAINS SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE AS THE SPREAD REMAINS MODERATE AND VARIABLE.
Xtreme weather said:Shawn said:Just wait until ground temps & wet rainy ground talk starts up soon.
LOL yup been with a few here since the John Oldshue/Daniel Lamb days 10-15 years ago...damn I feel old lol
Sure do wish "oldshue" would come back around. If I remember correctly, thats how his screen name read.....just "oldshue"
Storm5 said:
I bet that is ZR or IP. One thing the GFS has shown is cold temps below 900mbs. If the models are not resolving the low level cold right, the northern portions of the precip shield may get a good hit with ice. I'm talking about a Euro type look.
Storm5 said:
because if a watch or advisory is issued then that gives people more confidence that something will happen. If they wait until the last minute to issue one, then it makes people wonder if there's any confidence in what may happen.