Wintry 1/7/17-1/10/17 Winter Storm

[Bsudweather]

I'm not gonna be a bit surprised if the GFS comes in with another big hit and no shift toward the others, then I think you see tonights Euro look different as well. Three strong runs in a row of pretty much the same idea, even days ago GFS was showing it. That tells me it may be onto something more that the other models.

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[Webberweather53]

The euro camp verbatim is still very close to producing several inches of snow across at least portions of the carolinas and potentially more of the SE US, even its solution bears watching... A minor shift NW &/or mishandling of isentropic upglide (as is usually the case) would make the difference for many on this forum...

 

[Nam0806]

I sure wouldn't put much stock into the NAM 4-5 days out

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Yup, me either

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It's not 4 or 5 days out. Its within 48 hours of the potential s/w interaction with the northern stream...so very much in the wheelhouse of the NAM...especially since it looks almost identical to the Euro. People here with decent (or more) knowledge has said this all day....the Euro is king for a reason, and I have a good feeling we are about to be reminded why.

I'll be interested to see what the GFS says about this in about 45 minutes.

 

[Storm5]

The "panic" is in the shorter range of the NAM where it's actually reliable (< 48 HR)....

bingo , sometime wishcasting overtakes reality

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I'd agree with you, and I'm not necessarily wishcasting, but can you define "reliable" within 48 hours?

Of course, the current guidance is all we have to go by at this point, and this is what the NAM is showing. We'll see how much it changes over the next few runs, but since this was a massive change from the prior runs, I'm more inclined to follow other runs to see how much they agree before giving more credence to this solution.

I agree with your point 100 percent about waiting on other guidance . But we are not talking about the long range NAM here. The key to this whole thing starts happening around day 2 with the stream interaction . Is the NAM right ? probably not but it showed interaction very early on so It can't be dismissed .



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[GeorgiaGirl]

I wouldn't put much stock into the NAM outside of two days but the problem is how consistent the Euro has been at saying that this will be a very minor to non event.

The Euro/Canadian/UKMET has consistently said a non event-minor event because of the northern stream being too strong. The UKMET is the closest to being okay and folks have said it's often hinted at the Euro's changes, so maybe it ends up being okay.

And I think there was something else that said the Euro hasn't been that great in the medium range lately.

 

[Metwannabe]

There's a para NAM?  What the what?! Lol

Anyway I hate to be a pessimist but don't forget although today's 18z gfs was great it did take a small step towards the Euro just things to monitor until models get a better handle on it and that might not be until we are in the HRRR range

 

[Nam0806]

The "panic" is in the shorter range of the NAM where it's actually reliable (< 48 HR)....

bingo , sometime wishcasting overtakes reality

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I'd agree with you, and I'm not necessarily wishcasting, but can you define "reliable" within 48 hours?

Of course, the current guidance is all we have to go by at this point, and this is what the NAM is showing. We'll see how much it changes over the next few runs, but since this was a massive change from the prior runs, I'm more inclined to follow other runs to see how much they agree before giving more credence to this solution.

I agree with your point 100 percent about waiting on other guidance . But we are not talking about the long range NAM here. The key to this whole thing starts happening around day 2 with the stream interaction . Is the NAM right ? probably not but it showed interaction very early on so It can't be dismissed .



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Oh no, I agree with you too. I do believe the overnight runs and tomorrow will be the most telling because of this fact.

 

[Storm5]

There's a para NAM?  What the what?! Lol

Anyway I hate to be a pessimist but don't forget although today's 18z gfs was great it did take a small step towards the Euro just things to monitor until models get a better handle on it and that might not be until we are in the HRRR range

Yeah there is

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[SD]

There's a para NAM?  What the what?! Lol

Anyway I hate to be a pessimist but don't forget although today's 18z gfs was great it did take a small step towards the Euro just things to monitor until models get a better handle on it and that might not be until we are in the HRRR range

If we are relying on the HRRR we are doomed. I'd rather just check the woolly worms

 

[Metwannabe]

There's a para NAM?  What the what?! Lol

Anyway I hate to be a pessimist but don't forget although today's 18z gfs was great it did take a small step towards the Euro just things to monitor until models get a better handle on it and that might not be until we are in the HRRR range

Yeah there is

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And apparently it looks like the GFS, so there's that

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[deltadog03]

The euro camp verbatim is still very close to producing several inches of snow across at least portions of the carolinas and potentially more of the SE US, even its solution bears watching... A minor shift NW &/or mishandling of isentropic upglide (as is usually the case) would make the difference for many on this forum...

Thats a very good point..For me its hard to trust a model that can't handle the next 12-24 hours right....

 

[CobraMedic]

We all know the drill by now. No model can be throw out, until we start seeing some consistency and agreement between models from run to run. No need to rush to that ledge yet.

 

[Metwannabe]

There's a para NAM?  What the what?! Lol

Anyway I hate to be a pessimist but don't forget although today's 18z gfs was great it did take a small step towards the Euro just things to monitor until models get a better handle on it and that might not be until we are in the HRRR range

If we are relying on the HRRR we are doomed. I'd rather just check the woolly worms

I don't mean the long range HRRR just the short range, you know first hour or two when I can look out my window and figure it out lol

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[Cad Wedge NC]

The "panic" is in the shorter range of the NAM where it's actually reliable (< 48 HR)....

bingo , sometime wishcasting overtakes reality

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I'd agree with you, and I'm not necessarily wishcasting, but can you define "reliable" within 48 hours?

Of course, the current guidance is all we have to go by at this point, and this is what the NAM is showing. We'll see how much it changes over the next few runs, but since this was a massive change from the prior runs, I'm more inclined to follow other runs to see how much they agree before giving more credence to this solution.

I agree with your point 100 percent about waiting on other guidance . But we are not talking about the long range NAM here. The key to this whole thing starts happening around day 2 with the stream interaction . Is the NAM right ? probably not but it showed interaction very early on so It can't be dismissed .



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If we are going to have a significant winter storm, this system has got to spawn a gulf low. That's the deal.... One thing the Euro might be missing is the baroclinic zone along the gulf and along the eastern seaboard. This can cause a storm to bomb given it has a good track and speed. That's the only positive thing I can see at this time. We have to get the energy down there intact.

 

[Nam0806]

There's a para NAM?  What the what?! Lol

Anyway I hate to be a pessimist but don't forget although today's 18z gfs was great it did take a small step towards the Euro just things to monitor until models get a better handle on it and that might not be until we are in the HRRR range

I'm not sure, but I've seen this happen too much. There's an extreme run, then a slightly less extreme run, and then the downward trend begins. Does that happen this time? I'm not sure, but it is something worth watching over the next few model runs. 

Like I said earlier, temper expectations, but if you're a snow lover, don't give up hope yet.

 

[accu35]

In just a few minutes, my stomach and nerves will start action up, and it's just models,lol

 

[deltadog03]

The GOM will provide some nice warm temps for some intensification if we have the spark for it..

 

[DadOfJax]

Im curious as to what the excuse will be IF the GFS has the s/w completely interacting with the northern stream at 00z. Hoping it holds its ground...but I dont like the chances.

 

[Shawn]

There will be no excuse. We will just accept it as a weaker, sheared out mess. I tried to prepare people for it earlier.

 

[Deleted member 418]

Im curious as to what the excuse will be IF the GFS has the s/w completely interacting with the northern stream at 00z. Hoping it holds its ground...but I dont like the chances.

Can we think positive please?