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Wintry 1/7/17-1/10/17 Winter Storm

It's the NAM, but fwiw the NAM looks closer to the GFS than the Euro at 72.

NAM:

namconus_z500a_us_49.png


GFS:

gfs_z500a_us_13.png
 
JtSmarts link said:
[quote author=Webberweather53 link=topic=80.msg7305#msg7305 date=1483383130]
Who else remembers this bad boy on this date back in January 2002? I was a lil' munchkin back then and have a very vague memory of the event...

accum.20020102.gif
Click to expand...
Thanks, Stormlover.  First one I've seen that I understood to look like that.  Have family that lives there in Huntsville, they would be happy. 

That was some of the most beautiful snow I've ever seen. We had about 6 inches in Irmo, SC and it was my birthday.
[/quote]
 
SD link said:
[quote author=Webberweather53 link=topic=80.msg7305#msg7305 date=1483383130]
Who else remembers this bad boy on this date back in January 2002? I was a lil' munchkin back then and have a very vague memory of the event...

accum.20020102.gif
Click to expand...
This was a good one the first round made me think we had failed but the second round made up for it

Sent from my SM-G928V using Tapatalk


[/quote]

Dang I was 20 at the time, you'd think I would remember it but don't fully recall this one attm.... 
 
chapelhillwx link said:
It's the NAM, but fwiw the NAM looks closer to the GFS than the Euro at 72.

NAM:

namconus_z500a_us_49.png


GFS:

gfs_z500a_us_13.png
Click to expand...
Also, the NAVGEM is closer to the GFS and the JMA is closer to the EURO. Models are really split on handling this shortwave. Could go either way, it's that close.

GFS/NAM/NAVGEM VS EURO/CMC/JMA on handling of shortwave the next 72 hrs
 
So far, our model camps are:



Amped: GFS/GEFS/NAM

Kind of in the middle: UKMET

Prog/suppressed: ECMWF/GGEM

Waaay inland: JMA
 
I am not doing this right.  Someone just make a thumbs up or like button.  :-*  Thanks for creating this new forum.  It will take me a year or two to learn how it works.  Bare with me.  Thanks again. 
 
chapelhillwx link said:
So far, our model camps are:



Amped: GFS/GEFS/NAM

Kind of in the middle: UKMET

Prog/suppressed: ECMWF/GGEM

Waaay inland: JMA
Click to expand...
That's correct. So basically the US vs the world lol

Sent from my SM-G928V using Tapatalk
 
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Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
 
SD link said:
[quote author=chapelhillwx link=topic=80.msg7339#msg7339 date=1483384646]
So far, our model camps are:



Amped: GFS/GEFS/NAM

Kind of in the middle: UKMET

Prog/suppressed: ECMWF/GGEM

Waaay inland: JMA
Click to expand...
That's correct. So basically the US vs the world lol

Sent from my SM-G928V using Tapatalk


[/quote]
SD link said:
[quote author=chapelhillwx link=topic=80.msg7339#msg7339 date=1483384646]
So far, our model camps are:



Amped: GFS/GEFS/NAM

Kind of in the middle: UKMET

Prog/suppressed: ECMWF/GGEM

Waaay inland: JMA
Click to expand...
That's correct. So basically the US vs the world lol

Sent from my SM-G928V using Tapatalk


[/quote]
SD link said:
[quote author=chapelhillwx link=topic=80.msg7339#msg7339 date=1483384646]
So far, our model camps are:



Amped: GFS/GEFS/NAM

Kind of in the middle: UKMET

Prog/suppressed: ECMWF/GGEM

Waaay inland: JMA
Click to expand...
That's correct. So basically the US vs the world lol

Sent from my SM-G928V using Tapatalk


[/quote]
It seems we have a model war.
 
SD link said:
[quote author=chapelhillwx link=topic=80.msg7339#msg7339 date=1483384646]
So far, our model camps are:



Amped: GFS/GEFS/NAM

Kind of in the middle: UKMET

Prog/suppressed: ECMWF/GGEM

Waaay inland: JMA
Click to expand...
That's correct. So basically the US vs the world lol

Sent from my SM-G928V using Tapatalk
[/quote]
watched these battles for years.....they don't end well

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
 
Dsaur link said:
[quote author=Deltadog03 link=topic=80.msg7296#msg7296 date=1483382961]
[quote author=Dsaur link=topic=80.msg7286#msg7286 date=1483382734]
Sure would like to see that low crossing further south, else that will have to be a mighty cad to keep it from cold rain down here.  Further away from that heat pump the better.  This far out it's screaming iffy..but hey, that's the south, and if we ain't got iffy down here, we ain't got much, lol.  Remarkable Goofy has held on all this long a while, and plenty of time for a southward trend and sleet for Tony :)  I haven't had a good sled in 11 years.  It's time I saw another 4 inches of sleet with some snow on top.  Meanwhile, I just poured out 2.4 inches of the anti drought.  Over 70 days of nothing and now over 8 inches of liquid gold since the abrupt cessation of the Nothing.  Amazing weather we are having.
Click to expand...
I love the EURO track...haha
[/quote]  Hey, Chris!  Trouble is they nearly always blend if we get a storm...so do they blend enough for you and me???  Cad will help me but not you, if it's strong enough....and Macon needs a good event...just not a repeat of that selfish 73 storm, lol.  This needs to spread the love, not box it up like that one did :)  For all my winter zen I've gained in my old age, that one still sticks in my craw.  I got the ice storm from hell in 73, and you got 16 inches of snow a bit later...oh, the humanity!!
[/quote]

I agree!!  GFS does drive some good ZR in here for a bit.  My guess that wedge would def be stronger than modeled if that was right.  EURO is not far off for sure, but really like the High thats built in on the GFS
 
Storm5 link said:
[quote author=SD link=topic=80.msg7342#msg7342 date=1483384736]
[quote author=chapelhillwx link=topic=80.msg7339#msg7339 date=1483384646]
So far, our model camps are:



Amped: GFS/GEFS/NAM

Kind of in the middle: UKMET

Prog/suppressed: ECMWF/GGEM

Waaay inland: JMA
Click to expand...
That's correct. So basically the US vs the world lol

Sent from my SM-G928V using Tapatalk
[/quote]
watched these battles for years.....they don't end well

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk


[/quote]
Storm5 link said:
[quote author=SD link=topic=80.msg7342#msg7342 date=1483384736]
[quote author=chapelhillwx link=topic=80.msg7339#msg7339 date=1483384646]
So far, our model camps are:



Amped: GFS/GEFS/NAM

Kind of in the middle: UKMET

Prog/suppressed: ECMWF/GGEM

Waaay inland: JMA
Click to expand...
That's correct. So basically the US vs the world lol

Sent from my SM-G928V using Tapatalk
[/quote]
watched these battles for years.....they don't end well

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk


[/quote]
Storm5 link said:
[quote author=SD link=topic=80.msg7342#msg7342 date=1483384736]
[quote author=chapelhillwx link=topic=80.msg7339#msg7339 date=1483384646]
So far, our model camps are:



Amped: GFS/GEFS/NAM

Kind of in the middle: UKMET

Prog/suppressed: ECMWF/GGEM

Waaay inland: JMA
Click to expand...
That's correct. So basically the US vs the world lol

Sent from my SM-G928V using Tapatalk
[/quote]
watched these battles for years.....they don't end well

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk


[/quote]
Who usually wins?
 
SD link said:
[quote author=chapelhillwx link=topic=80.msg7339#msg7339 date=1483384646]
So far, our model camps are:



Amped: GFS/GEFS/NAM

Kind of in the middle: UKMET

Prog/suppressed: ECMWF/GGEM

Waaay inland: JMA
Click to expand...
That's correct. So basically the US vs the world lol

Sent from my SM-G928V using Tapatalk


[/quote]
and we know how that usually ends...hahahaahah  I actually favor a nice blend of them all...I actually think the EURO is a little less favored for once.
 
Its funny because the Euro is usually slower with this stuff while GFS is faster.  Roll reversal.
 
Shawn i live in Cayce/west cola i always like your input for our area how are you feeling about this potential storm for our area
 
Storm5 link said:
[quote author=SD link=topic=80.msg7342#msg7342 date=1483384736]
[quote author=chapelhillwx link=topic=80.msg7339#msg7339 date=1483384646]
So far, our model camps are:

I'm practicing on you Storm5.  Trying to learn how things work before it gets intense.  Don't mind me. 

Amped: GFS/GEFS/NAM

Kind of in the middle: UKMET

Prog/suppressed: ECMWF/GGEM

Waaay inland: JMA
Click to expand...
That's correct. So basically the US vs the world lol

Sent from my SM-G928V using Tapatalk
[/quote]
watched these battles for years.....they don't end well

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk


[/quote]
 
Spurs up link said:
Shawn i live in Cayce/west cola i always like your input for our area how are you feeling about this potential storm for our area
Click to expand...

50/50 chance as we sit.  Won't know until mid-week for sure.  I feel like there is an above normal chance at something Wintry for that area though.
 
I'm going with the GFS model the most with some Euro and CMC modeling atm. The JMA is not that accurate, but it can be in some cases...just not as accurate as the widely used models.

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