sigwx
Member
Webberweather53 link said:
you forgot one
[/quote]Could be the quote of the day
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you forgot one
[/quote]Could be the quote of the day
Parker
Member
I'm ready to see the EPS be sexy
chapelhillwx
Member
Webberweather53 link said:
you forgot one
[/quote]
He must be using the JBFS, which runs whenever he tweets.
Dsaur link said:Sure would like to see that low crossing further south, else that will have to be a mighty cad to keep it from cold rain down here. Further away from that heat pump the better. This far out it's screaming iffy..but hey, that's the south, and if we ain't got iffy down here, we ain't got much, lol. Remarkable Goofy has held on all this long a while, and plenty of time for a southward trend and sleet for Tony
Tony,
I'm not sure if you saw it, but the 6Z GFS gave you a big sleetstorm after 1-2" of snow (and virtually no zr) that would rival anything seen in metro ATL since at least the great 1988 4" sleetstorm. The 12Z GFS gives you some ZR but still has a nice amount of sleet. Maybe you will finally be able to use your sleet sled again though it would be nice if other models would even halfway agree lol. We know better than to bet on these GFS runs but keep hope alive!
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
It's not like the Euro is that far off from the GFS. Just slight changes make all the difference.
ghost1
Member
FWIW... it looks like the NAVGEM has the energy strung out and kinda surpressed until a low forms SE of SC and amps up the precip but it's pretty far offshore. I don't have surface temp info but not much moisture under the 540 line. Maybe some freezing rain in GA, SC and mid-east NC if the surface temps support it.
Stormlover
Member
Haven't seen this, but the GFS para
Parker
Member
I just have a bad feeling us folks in central al are going to be watching folks just to our north get hammered like the past few events but hope I am wrong. We've seen this too many times
O
Olaf
Guest
Parker link said:
Have a lil optimism. Your area is due a good one. Still very much in the game for some wintry precip.
D
DannyTanner
Guest
what's up fellas, just came across this site after talkweather went down. I have felt very lost over the past few months, glad to be back.....now bring on some snow!
GaWx link said:
Best I have for ya - http://meteocentre.com/models/models.php?mod=ukmet&map=na&run=&lang=en&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest
MichaelJ
Member
When in doubt during winter, I always go with the EURO.
Ron Burgundy
Member
Saw this posted on TOS. Looks like they're leaning heavily toward the Euro solution. Hope they're wrong!
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1100 AM EST MON JAN 02 2017
VALID 12Z THU JAN 05 2017 - 12Z MON JAN 09 2017
PATTERN OVERVIEW...
THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN IS MOSTLY INFLUENCED BY A RETROGRADING
UPPER RIDGE OR HIGH OVER ALASKA WHICH THEN MAKES WAY FOR AN
AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH OR UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA BY NEXT
WEEKEND...ALONG WITH A SLOWLY EVOLVING UPPER TROUGH OVER
ONTARIO/QUEBEC...WITH THESE FEATURES SUPPORTING A POSSIBLE
HIGH-END PRECIPITATION EVENT FOR CALIFORNIA NEXT SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY...A TRANSIENT PATTERN FROM THE ROCKIES EASTWARD...AND
CYCLOGENESIS SOMEWHERE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.
MODEL CHOICES AND CONFIDENCE...
TWO CAMPS OF SOLUTIONS EMERGE AT THE START OF DAY 3/THU...WITH THE
00Z GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CROSSING CENTRAL
CANADA...THUS PRODUCING MORE SEPARATION WITH THE RESIDUAL TROUGH
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST...AND THEREFORE ALLOWING THE NORTHWEST TO
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH LONGER. THE OTHER CAMP OF
SOLUTIONS IS REPRESENTED BY THE 00Z ECMWF WHICH IS SLOWER WITH THE
CENTRAL CANADA TROUGH...THUS ALLOWING IT TO SLIGHTLY PHASE WITH
THE RESIDUAL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST...WHICH THEN ALLOWS THE
TROUGH TO EXIT THE NORTHWEST MORE QUICKLY. WHILE THE ENSEMBLE
MEMBER SPREAD IS HIGH...THEREFORE INDICATING LOW
CONFIDENCE...RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY HAS BEEN HIGHER WITH THE
ECMWF-SCENARIO...WITH THE 06Z GFS AND 00Z PARALLEL GFS LEANING
STRONGLY IN THE ECMWF DIRECTION. COMBINE THE 00Z CANADIAN...AND
ITS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKE THE 00Z GFS IS THE ODD MODEL OUT.
THUS...THE PREFERENCE IS ABOUT 70 PERCENT IN THE ECMWF DIRECTION
FOR ALL 7 DAYS...WITH MORE DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS BLENDED EARLY
FOR DETAIL AND AMPLITUDE...AND MORE ENSEMBLES USED LATE DUE TO
HIGHER UNCERTAINTY. THESE CHOICES HOLD AS WELL FOR THE EAST
COAST...WHICH IF THE 00Z GFS WERE TO BE CORRECT...WOULD SUPPORT A
WINTER STORM FOR PARTS OF THE EAST COAST NEXT SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...FOR REASONS LISTED ABOVE...ITS SOLUTION IS NEAR THE
WESTERN AND DEEP EDGES OF THE GUIDANCE...WITH ONLY ABOUT 4 OUT OF
100 ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUPPORTING IT AT THIS TIME. INSTEAD...PREFER
A SOLUTION MORE OFFSHORE AND PROGRESSIVE.
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1100 AM EST MON JAN 02 2017
VALID 12Z THU JAN 05 2017 - 12Z MON JAN 09 2017
PATTERN OVERVIEW...
THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN IS MOSTLY INFLUENCED BY A RETROGRADING
UPPER RIDGE OR HIGH OVER ALASKA WHICH THEN MAKES WAY FOR AN
AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH OR UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA BY NEXT
WEEKEND...ALONG WITH A SLOWLY EVOLVING UPPER TROUGH OVER
ONTARIO/QUEBEC...WITH THESE FEATURES SUPPORTING A POSSIBLE
HIGH-END PRECIPITATION EVENT FOR CALIFORNIA NEXT SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY...A TRANSIENT PATTERN FROM THE ROCKIES EASTWARD...AND
CYCLOGENESIS SOMEWHERE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.
MODEL CHOICES AND CONFIDENCE...
TWO CAMPS OF SOLUTIONS EMERGE AT THE START OF DAY 3/THU...WITH THE
00Z GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CROSSING CENTRAL
CANADA...THUS PRODUCING MORE SEPARATION WITH THE RESIDUAL TROUGH
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST...AND THEREFORE ALLOWING THE NORTHWEST TO
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH LONGER. THE OTHER CAMP OF
SOLUTIONS IS REPRESENTED BY THE 00Z ECMWF WHICH IS SLOWER WITH THE
CENTRAL CANADA TROUGH...THUS ALLOWING IT TO SLIGHTLY PHASE WITH
THE RESIDUAL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST...WHICH THEN ALLOWS THE
TROUGH TO EXIT THE NORTHWEST MORE QUICKLY. WHILE THE ENSEMBLE
MEMBER SPREAD IS HIGH...THEREFORE INDICATING LOW
CONFIDENCE...RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY HAS BEEN HIGHER WITH THE
ECMWF-SCENARIO...WITH THE 06Z GFS AND 00Z PARALLEL GFS LEANING
STRONGLY IN THE ECMWF DIRECTION. COMBINE THE 00Z CANADIAN...AND
ITS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKE THE 00Z GFS IS THE ODD MODEL OUT.
THUS...THE PREFERENCE IS ABOUT 70 PERCENT IN THE ECMWF DIRECTION
FOR ALL 7 DAYS...WITH MORE DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS BLENDED EARLY
FOR DETAIL AND AMPLITUDE...AND MORE ENSEMBLES USED LATE DUE TO
HIGHER UNCERTAINTY. THESE CHOICES HOLD AS WELL FOR THE EAST
COAST...WHICH IF THE 00Z GFS WERE TO BE CORRECT...WOULD SUPPORT A
WINTER STORM FOR PARTS OF THE EAST COAST NEXT SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...FOR REASONS LISTED ABOVE...ITS SOLUTION IS NEAR THE
WESTERN AND DEEP EDGES OF THE GUIDANCE...WITH ONLY ABOUT 4 OUT OF
100 ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUPPORTING IT AT THIS TIME. INSTEAD...PREFER
A SOLUTION MORE OFFSHORE AND PROGRESSIVE.
dsaur
Member
I love the EURO track...hahaDeltadog03 link said:[quote author=Dsaur link=topic=80.msg7333#msg7333 date=1483384262]
[quote author=Deltadog03 link=topic=80.msg7296#msg7296 date=1483382961]
[quote author=Dsaur link=topic=80.msg7286#msg7286 date=1483382734]
Sure would like to see that low crossing further south, else that will have to be a mighty cad to keep it from cold rain down here. Further away from that heat pump the better. This far out it's screaming iffy..but hey, that's the south, and if we ain't got iffy down here, we ain't got much, lol. Remarkable Goofy has held on all this long a while, and plenty of time for a southward trend and sleet for Tony
[/quote] Hey, Chris! Trouble is they nearly always blend if we get a storm...so do they blend enough for you and me??? Cad will help me but not you, if it's strong enough....and Macon needs a good event...just not a repeat of that selfish 73 storm, lol. This needs to spread the love, not box it up like that one did
For all my winter zen I've gained in my old age, that one still sticks in my craw. I got the ice storm from hell in 73, and you got 16 inches of snow a bit later...oh, the humanity!![/quote]
I agree!! GFS does drive some good ZR in here for a bit. My guess that wedge would def be stronger than modeled if that was right. EURO is not far off for sure, but really like the High thats built in on the GFS
[/quote] Yeah, boy, with the high, but it's still so far away, lol. It could be out to sea in a run or two, but I have to say Goofy has been wanting something for so long now, it seems more likely than not, but zr is not acceptable, lol. Keep the high, drop the low some, slow things down to a three day event, and I'll take it
Sleet and snow from Perry to Rosie is what I want to see. It's been a lot of years since we got a wide spread event in GA. T
Webberweather53 link said:Who else remembers this bad boy on this date back in January 2002? I was a lil' munchkin back then and have a very vague memory of the event...
It was a doozy. A month before the birth of my son. I remember it vividly. A two-part storm. We was out of work for 4 or 5 days.