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Wintry 1/7/17-1/10/17 Winter Storm

About the post above:

.WITH ONLY ABOUT 4 OUT OF
100 ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUPPORTING IT AT THIS TIME. INSTEAD...PREFER
A SOLUTION MORE OFFSHORE AND PROGRESSIVE.
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That is telling about the GFS solution.  Ouch.
 
Shawn link said:
Its funny because the Euro is usually slower with this stuff while GFS is faster.  Roll reversal.
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Thats a great point..It makes me hesitate to fully trust the euro with that regard.  I think we are likely to see a blend of the gfs/euro/cmc....I would like to see the high out in front like the gfs does for sure.
 
GaWx link said:
[quote author=Shawn link=topic=80.msg7374#msg7374 date=1483386542]
[quote author=GaWx link=topic=80.msg7369#msg7369 date=1483386349]
Does anyone have a 12Z UKMET 144 hour map they can post? I haven't seen it yet. I've only seen 120. Better yet, does anyone have a link to it? TIA
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Best I have for ya - http://meteocentre.com/models/models.php?mod=ukmet&map=na&run=&lang=en&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest
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Shawn,
Perfect. Thanks a bunch!
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If you play around the site a bit, there are lots of cool things there.  Canadian ensembles/cyclone tracking.  I think the arpege is even on there somewhere.
 
I actually give alot of credit to the GFS, because it's been showing this storm since from over the 300 hr range. I know it's been showing the storm and taking it away,and bringing it back, but it's steadily on heels of having something for us.
 
Parker link said:
[quote author=RichardJacks link=topic=80.msg7051#msg7051 date=1483374061]
This is a good place to be this far out...but I wouldn't be surprised if the accumulating snow winds up just north of Bham...still plenty of time though
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Richard that is my fear, but I say ever year that we are bound to make it happen one day. I just bought my first house last week and would love to break it in with a good snow. I live for this stuff!
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Congrats on your first home! If the 500 mb tracks a little south by 100 miles, this could be huge.
 
accu35 link said:
I actually give alot of credit to the GFS, because it's been showing this storm since from over the 300 hr range. I know it's been showing the storm and taking it away,and bringing it back, but it's steadily on heels of having something for us.
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I agree accu, the GFS showed the storm before Christmas and times after Christmas.

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The GFS has gotten better an seeing the large events in the future...most major weather events in the past few years were shown by the GFS weeks in advance...but of course there are all of those fantasy storms that never came to be lol.
 
Deltadog03 link said:
Well, we have 2 camps now....EURO would be a little light snow on the NW fringes, but verbatim its too warm for most.  EURO doesn't build in a high...We CANT have the energy come flying through like that IMHO.....There is no cold push and its moisture being chased by cold.  Is it right??  IDK  Honestly, it won't take much for either solution to verify...I wish we had more of a SFC high out in front like the GFS does.  We shall see, either way, I like the direction we are going right now.
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I have to ask, but does the EURO show any ZR for the CAD prone areas?
 
RichardJacks link said:
The GFS has gotten better an seeing the large events in the future...most major weather events in the past few years were shown by the GFS weeks in advance...but of course there are all of those fantasy storms that never came to be lol.
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agreed, but when it does show the potential Storm from start until now, then I have my belief we will see something special, I could be wrong, lol but hope not
 
EPS Mean & Control Thru Sat 0Z
9a7d59030b0023420be062c2bb525e24.jpg

91ebc563c573eec7278546cb55614563.jpg



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Yeah, not a great EPS.  That's worrisome at this range that OP/EPS agree.
 
NForsythWX link said:
[quote author=Deltadog03 link=topic=80.msg7277#msg7277 date=1483382360]
Well, we have 2 camps now....EURO would be a little light snow on the NW fringes, but verbatim its too warm for most.  EURO doesn't build in a high...We CANT have the energy come flying through like that IMHO.....There is no cold push and its moisture being chased by cold.  Is it right??  IDK  Honestly, it won't take much for either solution to verify...I wish we had more of a SFC high out in front like the GFS does.  We shall see, either way, I like the direction we are going right now.
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I have to ask, but does the EURO show any ZR for the CAD prone areas?

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I'm not Delta and don't know if he's here now, but I think he'd agree with me that there's very little or no IP and ZR since there's no CAD/no high to the NE.
 
Shawn link said:
Yeah, not a great EPS.  That's worrisome at this range that OP/EPS agree.
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that's OK, GFS/ENS will save us lol
 
Have seen this game play out way to many times. Hope the gfs pulls off a miracle
 
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