Wintry 1/7/17-1/10/17 Winter Storm

[Shawn]

If storm feels good, then I feel good.

I just feel good seeing it was a little slower and seeing the NS clear out . if that trends a little faster we are good. plus I still don't believe the gfs will hold this same look for the next 12 plus gfs runs

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[Shawn]

I'm still liking the trends.

 

[Shawn]

It looks like the flat flow out front on the GFS may have kept things from really going until that first wave cleared out and the 2nd wave digs into the lakes. This allowed room for a little more amplification

I know it's a different storm, but I recall a similar situation leading up to the February 2010 snowstorm.  A day or two before gametime, there were several folks from central and eastern NC who found themselves in the game.

I think that one was suppressed by a strong -NAO but the system and precip shield slowly leaked northward toward verification. I ended up with a few inches of pure powder from that one that melted in like 6 seconds when the sun came up

 

[Shawn]

Still not moving NW enough to do much here.

It's moving NW brick have faith
Look at this trend over last 3 runs 
blob:http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/eddc43c8-883f-45ef-b01c-b1c57dbae6a7

 

[Shawn]

Trend leads me to believe that the deformation zone sets up over Atlanta Metro when all is said and done.

 

[Shawn]

Still not moving NW enough to do much here.

Plz....NW of the GFS sweet spot. I'd rather be here than down in Bladen county

Has it moved NW more at all the last two runs? Is it the start of the trend?

 

[Shawn]

Around 7 inches of snow CAE. Florence gets the winner with 8.1

Nice!


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[Shawn]

Still not moving NW enough to do much here.

It's moving NW brick have faith
Look at this trend over last 3 runs 
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/eddc43c8-883f-45ef-b01c-b1c57dbae6a7

Lmao

 

[Shawn]

this isn't a bad run at all for georgia

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Yeah, still getting 5 or 6 here.  That'll go nicely with the 5 inches of rain I just got : Still waiting to get 5 inches in sleet, lol.  But, if it has to be snow, I'll take it happily.  I made a sled out of skis, so I can do snow in the street too, if they don't tear it up too bad driving on it    But sleet is better! T

 

[Shawn]

If storm feels good, then I feel good.

I just feel good seeing it was a little slower and seeing the NS clear out . if that trends a little faster we are good. plus I still don't believe the gfs will hold this same look for the next 12 plus gfs runs

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storm how do you think the gfs will trend?

 

[Shawn]

The real question is if this look continues-will everyone forecast the sharp northern precip cutoff showin in Alabama? I am having a bit of deja vu.

 

[Shawn]

this isn't a bad run at all for georgia

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Yeah, still getting 5 or 6 here.  That'll go nicely with the 5 inches of rain I just got : Still waiting to get 5 inches in sleet, lol.  But, if it has to be snow, I'll take it happily.  I made a sled out of skis, so I can do snow in the street too, if they don't tear it up too bad driving on it    But sleet is better!  T

Do you honestly like sleet better than snow ?

 

[Shawn]

Eh Canadian so far not too far off from I guess the 00z NAM at 42

 

[Shawn]

ukmet looks nothing like the 12z run . weaker

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[Shawn]

Still not moving NW enough to do much here.

It's moving NW brick have faith
Look at this trend over last 3 runs 
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/eddc43c8-883f-45ef-b01c-b1c57dbae6a7

Lmao

lol that link didn't work. Copy and paste the edited link brick. It should work

 

[Shawn]

I don't think that bad....cold air a little less of a push, but pretty close to be honest...Nice slug of moisture....beats the NAM...lol

Lol. Yeah the NAM looked like someone hacked it or something. Strange run for sure.

 

[Shawn]

?? its over lol

 

[Shawn]

Still not moving NW enough to do much here.

Plz....NW of the GFS sweet spot. I'd rather be here than down in Bladen county

Has it moved NW more at all the last two runs? Is it the start of the trend?

Its bouncing around just to the south, but if you look at the 300k and 290k charts you could argue we see more snow here than the model is currently producing. Also the GFS brings the coldest cloud tops across our area on simulated satellite. Also, its a case of what happens out front, the CMC/Euro/UKM have higher heights across the OV and MA than the GFS, thus they orient this snow band SW to NE across our area. We will see what these models say soon

 

[Shawn]

CMC coming in with much more interaction.

 

[Shawn]

CMC is not bad....a little more moisture I think...temps about the same... it has a connection with NB tho....brings in qpf early across the SE like 18z FRI

 

[Shawn]

This is a really quick system. The good thing with it being quick is it is strong, so whoever gets it is going to get a good hit.

 

[Shawn]

Just needs to trend a little colder plz

 

[Shawn]

The real question is if this look continues-will everyone forecast the sharp northern precip cutoff showin in Alabama? I am having a bit of deja vu.

What an awful predicament to be in...those are soooo dang hard...as you well know to try and forecast.

 

[Shawn]

I just feel as if people are jumping ship way too soon on the NW trend. I don't remember a storm of this nature trending south as we got within 60 hours. We know that some interaction with the NS will occur, but I just don't buy what the NAM is showing with that sheared mess at h5.

 

[Shawn]

this isn't a bad run at all for georgia

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Yeah, still getting 5 or 6 here.  That'll go nicely with the 5 inches of rain I just got : Still waiting to get 5 inches in sleet, lol.  But, if it has to be snow, I'll take it happily.  I made a sled out of skis, so I can do snow in the street too, if they don't tear it up too bad driving on it    But sleet is better!  T

I agree....not a bad run for GA....prob need a little help down my way with temps tho...lol

 

[Shawn]

this isn't a bad run at all for georgia

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Yeah, still getting 5 or 6 here.  That'll go nicely with the 5 inches of rain I just got : Still waiting to get 5 inches in sleet, lol.  But, if it has to be snow, I'll take it happily.  I made a sled out of skis, so I can do snow in the street too, if they don't tear it up too bad driving on it    But sleet is better!  T

Do you honestly like sleet better than snow ?

Oh, yeah!  The most amazing storm I ever saw, to include the blizzard, was  a sleet storm in Atl in 61, or 2.  I've been hooked ever since.  I'd trade a foot of snow for 6 inches of sleet  every time.  I know, I know, everyone thinks I'm crazy..but it's a big world...plenty of room for crazy people, lol. T

 

[Shawn]

cmc looks nothing like 12z

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[Shawn]

so the cmc and ukmet both trend weaker

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[Shawn]

Pretty obvious trend north-west with the heavier amounts in GA compared to 18z shifted about 2 counties northward. Keeps this up everyday then I may see something for my backyard in NC.

Currently gives Wilkes/Surry nothing. I will shoot down any black crows that come to my yard squawking like hell for worms.

 #kuKahkuKah
#snOMG

 

[Shawn]

Trend leads me to believe that the deformation zone sets up over Atlanta Metro when all is said and done.

Yep - that bullseye around McDonough seems to be consistent across multiple models regardless of how the precip shield shifts around it from run to run. Hard not to believe that's going to be ground zero when it's all said and done. Just hope I can be close enough to cash in!

 

[Shawn]

horrible trends I'm sure many are thinking about this

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[Shawn]

The CMC looks faster and warmer to me. Precip doesn't look like an issue in Georgia to me, temps do because it's too early.

 

[Shawn]

The long awaited, well anticipated canonical short-medium range NW trend has likely begun on the GFS... Axis of heaviest snow has moved ~ 50 miles or so northwestward in the past 3 runs over North & South Carolina

 

[Shawn]

I'm checking out early tonight. Hope to wake up to good trends from 06z!

 

[Shawn]

might be okay for places in NC and East TN but it'd be lite amounts.

 

[Shawn]

I'm gonna wait for the gefs but no way in hell I'm staying up for the euro

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[Shawn]

The long awaited, well anticipated canonical short-medium range NW trend has likely begun on the GFS... Axis of heaviest snow has moved ~ 50 miles or so northwestward in the past 3 runs over North & South Carolina

I approve this

 

[Shawn]

Yalls play by play feels like the first time I got married and then divorced! Happily I should add!

 

[Shawn]

Pretty obvious trend north-west with the heavier amounts in GA compared to 18z shifted about 2 counties northward. Keeps this up everyday then I may see something for my backyard in NC.

Currently gives Wilkes/Surry nothing. I will shoot down any black crows that come to my yard squawking like hell for worms.

 #kuKahkuKah
#snOMG

I just can't get over that amazing cutoff between totals SE of ATL and NW of ATL. Incredible.

 

[Shawn]

Canadian at 72

At 90

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