Wintry 1/7/17-1/10/17 Winter Storm

[Webberweather53]

[quote author=Webberweather53 link=topic=80.msg7295#msg7295 date=1483382955]
[quote author=metwannabe link=topic=80.msg7270#msg7270 date=1483382203]
[quote author=Webberweather53 link=topic=80.msg7265#msg7265 date=1483381921]
I don't think some realize just how little it would take for the Euro/CMC to look like the 12z GFS here and vis versa. A few minor details out west wrt stream separation and shortwave amplitude initialization will make all the difference in the world between nothing and a monster, the non-linearity here is pretty ridiculous. Even still, it's too far out to speculate on this or which scenario is more correct until we get some decent upper air data into these systems in ~ 36 hours...

Glory or failure having this type of setup and potential to track is great....  and so far every single scenario gives us NC folks something, so I like our chances
[/quote]

Exactly. More than half of the battle is trying to get any wintry precipitation to begin with... The fact these models have such large discrepancies wrt timing, amplitude, antecedent airmass, low pressure track, etc. which still lead to snow/ice in NC is pretty telling
[/quote]
Maola milk and bunny bread are excited to hear this lol

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[/quote]

Lol... I still honestly don't get the bread and milk thing, esp. considering these items (esp the latter) are usually the first items to go bad

 

[Lovemesomesnow]

To get anything near what GFS is showing would be amazing!

Fox 6 is showing a map with some sort of precip from North Al. all the way down to the bottom of Jefferson County and there it stops.  Wonder what maps they are looking at or are they just anticepating a NW trend?  Wishing for just a little of the white stuff here near Green Top BBQ.  lol 

 

[StoneMtnWx]

Also those who know Griteater at the other place had a thread created to track model performance. So far with the late December ice threats for NC the GFS can out on top, while euro/cmc mostly agreed with one another, they eventually fell towards the gfs solution.

Disclaimer: This post is in NO way a wish cast, nor do I believe the actual snow totals 12z gfs will happen (not impossible, but extremely unlikely). However, in terms of a slightly more amped up/stronger system and slower version the GFS shows at 5h, that is a good possibility. Of course safe bet would go middle ground right now. Just thought be interesting to mention gfs has come out on top within 5 days so far this winter...not saying it will this time, who knows.

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[SoutheastRidge]

[quote author=SD link=topic=80.msg7303#msg7303 date=1483383035]
[quote author=Webberweather53 link=topic=80.msg7295#msg7295 date=1483382955]
[quote author=metwannabe link=topic=80.msg7270#msg7270 date=1483382203]
[quote author=Webberweather53 link=topic=80.msg7265#msg7265 date=1483381921]
I don't think some realize just how little it would take for the Euro/CMC to look like the 12z GFS here and vis versa. A few minor details out west wrt stream separation and shortwave amplitude initialization will make all the difference in the world between nothing and a monster, the non-linearity here is pretty ridiculous. Even still, it's too far out to speculate on this or which scenario is more correct until we get some decent upper air data into these systems in ~ 36 hours...

Glory or failure having this type of setup and potential to track is great....  and so far every single scenario gives us NC folks something, so I like our chances
[/quote]

Exactly. More than half of the battle is trying to get any wintry precipitation to begin with... The fact these models have such large discrepancies wrt timing, amplitude, antecedent airmass, low pressure track, etc. which still lead to snow/ice in NC is pretty telling
[/quote]
Maola milk and bunny bread are excited to hear this lol

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[/quote]

Lol... I still honestly don't get the bread and milk thing, esp. considering these items (esp the latter) are usually the first items to go bad
[/quote] usually milk will be good for at least 2 weeks after you buy it. And if the power goes out just put it out in the snow for it to stay cold.

 

[Thundersnow89]

You dare mention the storm that must not be named!

 

[Stormlover]

[quote author=Stormlover link=topic=80.msg7285#msg7285 date=1483382729]
12Z GFS gives an even 1 FOOT at Muscle Shoals, Al.
170107/0900Z 117  11008KT  29.9F  SNOW  11:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.077  11:1|  0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.08  100|  0|  0
170107/1200Z 120  08010KT  31.5F  SNOW  13:1| 3.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.259  13:1|  4.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.34  100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
170107/1500Z 123  07008KT  31.9F  SNOW    9:1| 1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.130  12:1|  5.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.47  100|  0|  0
170107/1800Z 126  03009KT  31.9F  SNOW  11:1| 2.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.240  12:1|  8.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.71  100|  0|  0
170107/2100Z 129  02010KT  31.5F  SNOW  17:1| 3.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.193  13:1| 11.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.90  100|  0|  0
170108/0000Z 132  36009KT  30.1F  SNOW    7:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.088  12:1| [glow=red,2,300]12.0[/glow]|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.99  100|  0|  0

might as well post the cmc and euro totals for comparison

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[/quote]you can post if if you want...I don't have that data in this format

 

[alfoman]

Honestly thought it was a good run. Keeps hope alive

I agree, it was right around what we expected to happen. It is only a few details away from the more amplified GFS solution, and to be completely honest with you, I 'd rather the CMC and ECMWF be in agreement with the suppression 120 hours out than exactly where the GFS is. There WILL be some sort of adjustments/movement as we get closer to the weekend. I would rather be too south than too amplified/north ANY day from this range.

 

[SnowHusky]

[quote author=Rosie link=topic=80.msg7157#msg7157 date=1483377074]

To get anything near what GFS is showing would be amazing!

Fox 6 is showing a map with some sort of precip from North Al. all the way down to the bottom of Jefferson County and there it stops.  Wonder what maps they are looking at or are they just anticepating a NW trend?  Wishing for just a little of the white stuff here near Green Top BBQ.  lol
[/quote]
They maybe using in-house models.

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[Tarheel1]

Shawn, post some Jan 88 maps and or totals!! good times right there! Kind of like 12z GFS

 

[Stormlover]

[quote author=Rosie link=topic=80.msg7157#msg7157 date=1483377074]

To get anything near what GFS is showing would be amazing!

Fox 6 is showing a map with some sort of precip from North Al. all the way down to the bottom of Jefferson County and there it stops.  Wonder what maps they are looking at or are they just anticepating a NW trend?  Wishing for just a little of the white stuff here near Green Top BBQ.  lol 
[/quote]

 

[JtSmarts]

Who else remembers this bad boy on this date back in January 2002? I was a lil' munchkin back then and have a very vague memory of the event...

That was some of the most beautiful snow I've ever seen. We had about 6 inches in Irmo, SC and it was my birthday.

 

[deltadog03]

Going to fun to watch this....little differences make a euro ish outcome (as of now) or a GFS (as of now)

 

[Shawn]

Shawn, post some Jan 88 maps and or totals!! good times right there! Kind of like 12z GFS

I'll see if i can come up with any.  I know Eric can generate them on the climate site.. which I cant login to right now   I hadn't seen that weather channel image before for some reason from '93.

 

[SnowHusky]

[quote author=Lovemesomesnow link=topic=80.msg7309#msg7309 date=1483383273]
[quote author=Rosie link=topic=80.msg7157#msg7157 date=1483377074]

To get anything near what GFS is showing would be amazing!

Fox 6 is showing a map with some sort of precip from North Al. all the way down to the bottom of Jefferson County and there it stops.  Wonder what maps they are looking at or are they just anticepating a NW trend?  Wishing for just a little of the white stuff here near Green Top BBQ.  lol 
[/quote]

[/quote]
Is that the map they were showing? If it is that is the GFS solution.

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[Flo]

[quote author=Webberweather53 link=topic=80.msg7305#msg7305 date=1483383130]
Who else remembers this bad boy on this date back in January 2002? I was a lil' munchkin back then and have a very vague memory of the event...

That was some of the most beautiful snow I've ever seen. We had about 6 inches in Irmo, SC and it was my birthday.
[/quote]

I lived in Irmo at the time. We were driving back from the Outback Bowl that day and it started snowing when we hit Jacksonville and snowed the whole way. My car when I went to pick it up at friends house was buried.

 

[Webberweather53]

[quote author=Webberweather53 link=topic=80.msg7305#msg7305 date=1483383130]
Who else remembers this bad boy on this date back in January 2002? I was a lil' munchkin back then and have a very vague memory of the event...

That was some of the most beautiful snow I've ever seen. We had about 6 inches in Irmo, SC and it was my birthday.
[/quote]

Nice! I remember sledding on top of massive 50-75 foot dirt piles (where new neighborhoods would eventually go up) during this storm with my cousins, one of the best sledding experiences of my childhood for sure. Ironically, it's going to be my 21st birthday this time next week, so you can probably imagine my excitement rn seeing a storm within a day of it lol

 

[Webberweather53]

[quote author=Tarheel1 link=topic=80.msg7318#msg7318 date=1483383399]
Shawn, post some Jan 88 maps and or totals!! good times right there! Kind of like 12z GFS

I'll see if i can come up with any.  I know Eric can generate them on the climate site.. which I cant login to right now   I hadn't seen that weather channel image before for some reason from '93.
[/quote]

Here's NWS RAH analysis of January 1988 via their past events archive which goes back to the 1970s & includes Hazel.
http://www.weather.gov/rah/events

Im essentially trying to do the same thing atm, except fill in some of the gaps in their data, and extend an archive of events back to ~1896...

 

[Brent]

The ultimate jinx lmao

 

[SD]

Who else remembers this bad boy on this date back in January 2002? I was a lil' munchkin back then and have a very vague memory of the event...

This was a good one the first round made me think we had failed but the second round made up for it

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[dsaur]

[quote author=Dsaur link=topic=80.msg7286#msg7286 date=1483382734]
Sure would like to see that low crossing further south, else that will have to be a mighty cad to keep it from cold rain down here.  Further away from that heat pump the better.  This far out it's screaming iffy..but hey, that's the south, and if we ain't got iffy down here, we ain't got much, lol.  Remarkable Goofy has held on all this long a while, and plenty of time for a southward trend and sleet for Tony   I haven't had a good sled in 11 years.  It's time I saw another 4 inches of sleet with some snow on top.  Meanwhile, I just poured out 2.4 inches of the anti drought.  Over 70 days of nothing and now over 8 inches of liquid gold since the abrupt cessation of the Nothing.  Amazing weather we are having.

I love the EURO track...haha
[/quote]  Hey, Chris!  Trouble is they nearly always blend if we get a storm...so do they blend enough for you and me???  Cad will help me but not you, if it's strong enough....and Macon needs a good event...just not a repeat of that selfish 73 storm, lol.  This needs to spread the love, not box it up like that one did   For all my winter zen I've gained in my old age, that one still sticks in my craw.  I got the ice storm from hell in 73, and you got 16 inches of snow a bit later...oh, the humanity!!