Wintry 1/7/17-1/10/17 Winter Storm

[modelwatcher]

[quote author=modelwatcher link=topic=80.msg7248#msg7248 date=1483381468]
The GFS says winter storm warning and the other models say a winter weather advisory. LOL

Im honestly just happy that both model camps have wintry weather in some way, shape, or form, it's usually akin to picking teeth to get them to agree on that alone
[/quote]very good point. 5 days out, we will take it

 

[ForsythSnow]

WPC is really stretching the boundaries now.

 

[Webberweather53]

I don't think some realize just how little it would take for the Euro/CMC to look like the 12z GFS here and vis versa. A few minor details out west wrt stream separation and shortwave amplitude initialization will make all the difference in the world between nothing and a monster, the non-linearity here is pretty ridiculous. Even still, it's too far out to speculate on this or which scenario is more correct until we get some decent upper air data into these systems in ~ 36 hours...

 

[Parker]

So CMC has .5 or so for bham, gfs 2-3, Euro .5. At least all them have something. Maybe euro and cmc will trend snowier, but I'm not too upset with the position of anybody in or around central Alabama. Obviously northern folks may get heavier totals, but maybe we can get a nice 1-3 inch event for many. Still so much to happen with this one. But great trends the last 24 hours on most all models. Maybe EPS will be similar to GEFS

 

[ColaSnow]

Per Allan Huffman.... 

Allan Huffman
‏@RaleighWx
Looks like the 12z ECMWF will look similar to the 00z run and the 12z GGEM. Which is a light wintry event for the SE Fri/Fri night.

 

[SD]

I don't think some realize just how little it would take for the Euro/CMC to look like the 12z GFS here and vis versa. A few minor details out west wrt stream separation and shortwave amplitude initialization will make all the difference in the world between nothing and a monster, the non-linearity here is pretty ridiculous. Even still, it's too far out to speculate on this or which scenario is more correct until we get some decent upper air data into these systems in ~ 36 hours...

+100000

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[Thundersnow89]

in regards to which model caves first, the euro isn't called "king" for no reason

 

[Metwannabe]

I don't think some realize just how little it would take for the Euro/CMC to look like the 12z GFS here and vis versa. A few minor details out west wrt stream separation and shortwave amplitude initialization will make all the difference in the world between nothing and a monster, the non-linearity here is pretty ridiculous. Even still, it's too far out to speculate on this or which scenario is more correct until we get some decent upper air data into these systems in ~ 36 hours...

Glory or failure having this type of setup and potential to track is great....  and so far every single scenario gives us NC folks something, so I like our chances

 

[ColaSnow]

[quote author=FLO link=topic=80.msg7250#msg7250 date=1483381558]
Oh well....it was fun while it lasted. For a few hours.  :eyeroll:

Lol, you still get snow though.  It's just not a massive, crippling, ridiculous sleet and ice storm per Euro.

A middle ground of the GFS & Euro as of now.. would me our area very happy.  Idk about Chris though.. it'd prob be ZR either way, will have to see.
[/quote]

LOL  Relax, FLO.  We're in the game, as I stated previously.  That's all you can ask for at the moment.  The scenarios doesn't look bad at all, either.

 

[whatalife]

[quote author=FLO link=topic=80.msg7250#msg7250 date=1483381558]
Oh well....it was fun while it lasted. For a few hours.  :eyeroll:

Lol, you still get snow though.  It's just not a massive, crippling, ridiculous sleet and ice storm per Euro.

A middle ground of the GFS & Euro as of now.. would me our area very happy.  Idk about Chris though.. it'd prob be ZR either way, will have to see.
[/quote]
Looks ok to me... Still 4 to 5 days out...


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[Brick Tamland]

Crazy how far apart the Euro and GFS are. But even the smallest detail can make all the difference.

 

[ForsythSnow]

in regards to which model caves first, the euro isn't called "king" for no reason

But it seems like recently it has been fighting more for its position as best. It hasn't been doing well in some cases within the past few weeks, but we will see.

 

[SnowHusky]

I'm not at home atm, when I get home this afternoon I'll have some thoughts on the CMC and Euro.

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[accu35]

It's normal to get different models showing different solution and how strong the storm will be. The plus sign is that there will be wintry weather for those who's been wanting it, that a plus.

 

[deltadog03]

Well, we have 2 camps now....EURO would be a little light snow on the NW fringes, but verbatim its too warm for most.  EURO doesn't build in a high...We CANT have the energy come flying through like that IMHO.....There is no cold push and its moisture being chased by cold.  Is it right??  IDK  Honestly, it won't take much for either solution to verify...I wish we had more of a SFC high out in front like the GFS does.  We shall see, either way, I like the direction we are going right now.

 

[Tagat]

97 Guests are viewing this board.  Most Online Today: 258. Most Online Ever: 258 (Today at 12:33:22 PM) 8) :snowflake:


Guest we urge you to register. If this winter event is still looking good in a few more days they will have to limit the amount of info going out to the guest.  :snowflake: :snowflake: :snowflake:

 

[Stormlover]

 

Allan Huffman
‏@RaleighWx
So GFS/GEFS vs ECMWF/CMC/CMC ENS, EPS comes in later. Right now it would seem a blend of 12z GEFS/CMC ENS, 12z EC/CMC makes most sense

 

[Brick Tamland]

[quote author=Webberweather53 link=topic=80.msg7265#msg7265 date=1483381921]
I don't think some realize just how little it would take for the Euro/CMC to look like the 12z GFS here and vis versa. A few minor details out west wrt stream separation and shortwave amplitude initialization will make all the difference in the world between nothing and a monster, the non-linearity here is pretty ridiculous. Even still, it's too far out to speculate on this or which scenario is more correct until we get some decent upper air data into these systems in ~ 36 hours...

+100000

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[/quote]

I would gladly take a blend of the Euro and GFS and take half of what the GFS showed.

 

[deltadog03]

That was a close one... A little more amped & further NW and the Euro looks like the 12z GFS

Agreed...if we allow the northern branch to swing through and build the high in...its $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

 

[Deleted member 418]

[quote author=Webberweather53 link=topic=80.msg7249#msg7249 date=1483381505]
That was a close one... A little more amped & further NW and the Euro looks like the 12z GFS

Agreed...if we allow the northern branch to swing through and build the high in...its $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
[/quote]


money in the bank- love that