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Wintry 1/7/17-1/10/17 Winter Storm

These differences always make me nervous but it's always a thread the needle scenario for us in the Deep South. Is EPS at 2?
 
12Z GFS gives an even 1 FOOT at Muscle Shoals, Al.
170107/0900Z 117  11008KT  29.9F  SNOW  11:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.077  11:1|  0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.08  100|  0|  0
170107/1200Z 120  08010KT  31.5F  SNOW  13:1| 3.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.259  13:1|  4.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.34  100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
170107/1500Z 123  07008KT  31.9F  SNOW    9:1| 1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.130  12:1|  5.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.47  100|  0|  0
170107/1800Z 126  03009KT  31.9F  SNOW  11:1| 2.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.240  12:1|  8.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.71  100|  0|  0
170107/2100Z 129  02010KT  31.5F  SNOW  17:1| 3.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.193  13:1| 11.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.90  100|  0|  0
170108/0000Z 132  36009KT  30.1F  SNOW    7:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.088  12:1| [glow=red,2,300]12.0[/glow]|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.99  100|  0|  0
 
Sure would like to see that low crossing further south, else that will have to be a mighty cad to keep it from cold rain down here.  Further away from that heat pump the better.  This far out it's screaming iffy..but hey, that's the south, and if we ain't got iffy down here, we ain't got much, lol.  Remarkable Goofy has held on all this long a while, and plenty of time for a southward trend and sleet for Tony :)  I haven't had a good sled in 11 years.  It's time I saw another 4 inches of sleet with some snow on top.  Meanwhile, I just poured out 2.4 inches of the anti drought.  Over 70 days of nothing and now over 8 inches of liquid gold since the abrupt cessation of the Nothing.  Amazing weather we are having.
 
Deltadog03 link said:
[quote author=Webberweather53 link=topic=80.msg7249#msg7249 date=1483381505]
That was a close one... A little more amped & further NW and the Euro looks like the 12z GFS

ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_6.png
Click to expand...

Agreed...if we allow the northern branch to swing through and build the high in...its $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
[/quote]
A high should build in behind a low...good weather follows bad weather.

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The Euro ensembles will tell us if there truly is a model battle or not. I fully expect there to be some GFS-like members in there.
 
metwannabe link said:
[quote author=Webberweather53 link=topic=80.msg7265#msg7265 date=1483381921]
I don't think some realize just how little it would take for the Euro/CMC to look like the 12z GFS here and vis versa. A few minor details out west wrt stream separation and shortwave amplitude initialization will make all the difference in the world between nothing and a monster, the non-linearity here is pretty ridiculous. Even still, it's too far out to speculate on this or which scenario is more correct until we get some decent upper air data into these systems in ~ 36 hours...
Click to expand...

Glory or failure having this type of setup and potential to track is great....  and so far every single scenario gives us NC folks something, so I like our chances
[/quote]

Exactly. More than half of the battle is trying to get any wintry precipitation to begin with... The fact these models have such large discrepancies wrt timing, amplitude, antecedent airmass, low pressure track, etc. which still lead to snow/ice in NC is pretty telling
 
Dsaur link said:
Sure would like to see that low crossing further south, else that will have to be a mighty cad to keep it from cold rain down here.  Further away from that heat pump the better.  This far out it's screaming iffy..but hey, that's the south, and if we ain't got iffy down here, we ain't got much, lol.  Remarkable Goofy has held on all this long a while, and plenty of time for a southward trend and sleet for Tony :)  I haven't had a good sled in 11 years.  It's time I saw another 4 inches of sleet with some snow on top.  Meanwhile, I just poured out 2.4 inches of the anti drought.  Over 70 days of nothing and now over 8 inches of liquid gold since the abrupt cessation of the Nothing.  Amazing weather we are having.
Click to expand...
I love the EURO track...haha
 
Stormlover link said:
12Z GFS gives an even 1 FOOT at Muscle Shoals, Al.
170107/0900Z 117  11008KT  29.9F  SNOW  11:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.077  11:1|  0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.08  100|  0|  0
170107/1200Z 120  08010KT  31.5F  SNOW  13:1| 3.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.259  13:1|  4.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.34  100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
170107/1500Z 123  07008KT  31.9F  SNOW    9:1| 1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.130  12:1|  5.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.47  100|  0|  0
170107/1800Z 126  03009KT  31.9F  SNOW  11:1| 2.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.240  12:1|  8.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.71  100|  0|  0
170107/2100Z 129  02010KT  31.5F  SNOW  17:1| 3.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.193  13:1| 11.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.90  100|  0|  0
170108/0000Z 132  36009KT  30.1F  SNOW    7:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.088  12:1| [glow=red,2,300]12.0[/glow]|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.99  100|  0|  0
Click to expand...
High snow rates indeed!

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SnowFlowXXL link said:
Honestly thought it was a good run. Keeps hope alive
Click to expand...
We are all feeling pretty confident that there will be some type of winter weather event, but to what extent is still being figured out in the modeling. Could go either way
 
Stormlover link said:
12Z GFS gives an even 1 FOOT at Muscle Shoals, Al.
170107/0900Z 117  11008KT  29.9F  SNOW  11:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.077  11:1|  0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.08  100|  0|  0
170107/1200Z 120  08010KT  31.5F  SNOW  13:1| 3.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.259  13:1|  4.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.34  100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
170107/1500Z 123  07008KT  31.9F  SNOW    9:1| 1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.130  12:1|  5.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.47  100|  0|  0
170107/1800Z 126  03009KT  31.9F  SNOW  11:1| 2.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.240  12:1|  8.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.71  100|  0|  0
170107/2100Z 129  02010KT  31.5F  SNOW  17:1| 3.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.193  13:1| 11.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.90  100|  0|  0
170108/0000Z 132  36009KT  30.1F  SNOW    7:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.088  12:1| [glow=red,2,300]12.0[/glow]|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.99  100|  0|  0
Click to expand...
might as well post the cmc and euro totals for comparison

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Webberweather53 link said:
[quote author=metwannabe link=topic=80.msg7270#msg7270 date=1483382203]
[quote author=Webberweather53 link=topic=80.msg7265#msg7265 date=1483381921]
I don't think some realize just how little it would take for the Euro/CMC to look like the 12z GFS here and vis versa. A few minor details out west wrt stream separation and shortwave amplitude initialization will make all the difference in the world between nothing and a monster, the non-linearity here is pretty ridiculous. Even still, it's too far out to speculate on this or which scenario is more correct until we get some decent upper air data into these systems in ~ 36 hours...
Click to expand...

Glory or failure having this type of setup and potential to track is great....  and so far every single scenario gives us NC folks something, so I like our chances
[/quote]

Exactly. More than half of the battle is trying to get any wintry precipitation to begin with... The fact these models have such large discrepancies wrt timing, amplitude, antecedent airmass, low pressure track, etc. which still lead to snow/ice in NC is pretty telling
[/quote]
Maola milk and bunny bread are excited to hear this lol

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Who else remembers this bad boy on this date back in January 2002? I was a lil' munchkin back then and have a very vague memory of the event...

accum.20020102.gif
 
Shawn link said:
Curr_Sur_1900_Z_13_Mar93.jpg
Click to expand...
Definitely not comparing this low with the blizzard of 1993...atm. The placements of the highs are similar...kinda

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