bouncycorn said:
I believe it just did.... In all honesty, the track seems to have adjusted north to a more believable look. Now, it all comes down to how much energy survives to spawn our gulf low.
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I believe it just did.... In all honesty, the track seems to have adjusted north to a more believable look. Now, it all comes down to how much energy survives to spawn our gulf low.
Ive been saying from the beginning I just want a 1-3 inch type event and somehow get an advisory for my area, and ill be happy. That nam run just looked weird as far as precip but who knows. That 18z GEFS was drop dead sexy and so was the earlier CMC and UKMET, so we just gotta hope that nam wasn't the start of something. I am still cautiously optimistic, but I also have a tendency to wishcast.
I have a hard time seeing a shutout though if the euro/nam type solutions verify we do have a little BL concern but it looks like melting would erase that quicklyBrick Tamland said:
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To my untrained eyes, if it weren't the 18z GFS, that run would have been a baby step in the right direction. It still shears out the wave a bit but the GOM's moisture recovers it enough for a decent event and wetter than some previous runs.
It's not a matter if whether the northern stream is going to affect this system, it's a matter of how much it does. Our best hope is it doesn't get completely ripped up and the GOM is able to recover it.
Of course it also looks like the wave stalls to me until moisture starts coming up from the GOM and it's like it tugs the system to me.
It's not a matter if whether the northern stream is going to affect this system, it's a matter of how much it does. Our best hope is it doesn't get completely ripped up and the GOM is able to recover it.
Of course it also looks like the wave stalls to me until moisture starts coming up from the GOM and it's like it tugs the system to me.
Weatherlover92 said:Parallel NAM is suppressed. Don't know what's going on at h5 because I don't see any maps for it on TT.
Close as I have for you
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Atm, I don't care what the NAM shows at this point moisture wise. Latest UKMET, Euro, CMC, DGEX and JMA are all in line with each other. The GFS is some what in line. We will see a big snow storm from this low. Now, I know that the JMA and DGEX aren't reliable models but the more reliable models support the the same idea as DGEX and JMA.
The NAM is probably wrong in that it shows that huge hole of no moisture, but what is a major concern here is it continues to show more and more interaction with the northern stream (in the time period in which it's good). Northern stream interaction is fine for some of us, but if there is too much the wave is just going to get ripped to shreds.
I mean considering that this is really threading the needle in how close it might get I really think we need to get to the 12z suite tomorrow before drawing anywhere close to a possible conclusion on this storm.
I know the gfs is giving you guys to my south and Southwest a great event but in case it goes south I wouldn't let it break my heart. I'd wait to see what the rest of the 0z runs offer
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