Kylo
Member
18z EPS
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Wintry 1/26-1/28 Winter Storm Potential
- Thread starter deltadog03
- Start date
looks like a in situ CAD signature based off that picture of the 6z eps
Jessy89
Member
If I’m seeing that right. Your typical areas see snow. North Georgia upstate sc western nc. If the moisture is available that is. But that map shows the colder air adjusting west
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Essentially looking at last year reversed. We got the big snow early and the Carolinas got it later. This time if that trend verified ENC would get nothing like in Dec 2017.
snowlover91
Member
To me it looks like the EPS catching on to what the FV3 has been showing for a day now. FV3 has been remarkably good with storm tracks this winter, beating the Euro and it's ensembles out by 1 day consistently. The FV3 is the main model to watch going forward IMO.
Chattownsnow
Member
would be nice to have at least a decent H up there near the great lakes and that clipper to either trend slower, or come in a lot weaker. We will take what we can get though.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
I would say it's better than the other models, but still not doing the best in terms of low placement at a given time. Its shifts have been enormous recently. In just a couple of days of runs its jumped 1000 miles SW. It seems to be more aggressive with the jumps, which tells me that something is up. If these continue or not we will see, but from overnight the ensembles seem to keep suggesting the op runs are doing something weird by giving nothing to GA.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
This setup is extremely fickle, likely will come right down the wire for many folks on this board & it's one of those storms where drastic large-scale changes can occur even inside 3 days from the event. While this is still several days out, I'd personally tip my hat ever so slightly to the climatologically favored El Nino solution in NC where we see a big gradient snowfall totals across the east-central piedmont &/or between the Triad & the Triangle, but anything is still easily at play for the next several days.
Not quite just yet. You will see an apparent trend one direction or another in the ensemble mean as they come into agreement that there is something there. The true shift is when they are in agreement and you see what you posted.
Double edged sword here. All depends on storm track and timing of when it phases. If that track holds someone in our forum is doing well. Western sections will want an earlier phase like March 93, but would be rain in RDU. Late phase with the low in that spot and its Carolina Crusher time. No phase and we have the GFS solution and no storm. As Webb just mentioned hard to iron out all the little details at this time.
What makes sense to me at this lead is to look at both the signal for a storm, which we have, the general area for a storm to occur (if there is a signal), which we also have, and the presence of a cold air source or mechanism to cool the air, which appears to be a problem here.
Most models show a signal for a storm. Most models that have that, generally have it far enough south and take a good track for many. Unfortunately, it’s a southern stream storm. We need a lobe of the PV/northern stream wave to press south far enough to swing a high pressure through behind it bringing cold in before the southern stream arrives. This looks unlikely.
Alternatively, a northern stream wave could phase with the southern stream system, injecting cold air. This would cause the storm to strengthen and it would probably mean a track a bit more NW sooner. But it would almost definitely produce a healthy swath of snow north and west of the track.
Or, the southern stream wave could amplify enough, without the help of the northern stream, to dynamically cool the marginal cold that is in place. This would produce a narrow corridor if snow under the heaviest precip on the northern and western side of the storm. This scenario seems like the most probable scenario right now. Unfortunately, it will be hard to pinpoint the favored area until the models get a better idea of the timing, strength, and track of the storm.
Obviously, the models are imperfect and will show various solutions. None can really be discounted completely. But looking at how the upper air pattern is trending, this looks like another case of a good track with marginal cold to work with, at this time. Maybe that changes some as we work through the week. Hopefully, it will.
Most models show a signal for a storm. Most models that have that, generally have it far enough south and take a good track for many. Unfortunately, it’s a southern stream storm. We need a lobe of the PV/northern stream wave to press south far enough to swing a high pressure through behind it bringing cold in before the southern stream arrives. This looks unlikely.
Alternatively, a northern stream wave could phase with the southern stream system, injecting cold air. This would cause the storm to strengthen and it would probably mean a track a bit more NW sooner. But it would almost definitely produce a healthy swath of snow north and west of the track.
Or, the southern stream wave could amplify enough, without the help of the northern stream, to dynamically cool the marginal cold that is in place. This would produce a narrow corridor if snow under the heaviest precip on the northern and western side of the storm. This scenario seems like the most probable scenario right now. Unfortunately, it will be hard to pinpoint the favored area until the models get a better idea of the timing, strength, and track of the storm.
Obviously, the models are imperfect and will show various solutions. None can really be discounted completely. But looking at how the upper air pattern is trending, this looks like another case of a good track with marginal cold to work with, at this time. Maybe that changes some as we work through the week. Hopefully, it will.
If you want to be worried or excited, loop the trend at 500mbs for 156hrs on the GFS.
The FV3 and Euro are much slower with the northern wave, but we will have to watch it.
The FV3 and Euro are much slower with the northern wave, but we will have to watch it.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
I'm not sure whether to be more excited or worried. If anything it looks worrying seeing the northern wave decimate the one we are rooting for. The FV3 has not been consistent with it in terms of definition, but its position doesn't seem to be changing much.
I agree with that as well. Also the southern energy is still “connected” enough to the northern stream where we should still see cold into that system. Especially if it’s that strong as modeled
I'm more curious about a phase than the s/w being crushed.
Very true
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Now that would be cause for excitement in AL, GA, and W NC and maybe even some of SC. Probably what some of the ensemble members have picked up on I'm guessing?
Snow Wisher
Member
And MS?
Stormlover
Member
from Huntsville NWS:
A chilly airmass remaining from the Arctic high and the arrival of a
stronger disturbance from the NW will bring a potential winter
weather event to the Tennessee Valley this weekend.
A chilly airmass remaining from the Arctic high and the arrival of a
stronger disturbance from the NW will bring a potential winter
weather event to the Tennessee Valley this weekend.
Showmeyourtds
Member
I assume y'all are referring to the energy transfer as the LP transfers from the Gulf to the Atlantic?
Jessy89
Member
That transfer could keep a lot of people out of snow.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Showmeyourtds
Member
Exactly- western areas would be in better shape but most of GA & perhaps some of the Carolinas might have issues
Icon has that wave over cali try to close off, probably won’t be a good run
Jessy89
Member
This isn’t the storm for my area of upstate sc. and northeast Georgia. I’ve seen before as moisture moves in it all of a sudden dissipates before re organizes around Columbia to the coast and across eastern nc to the coast.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
GeorgiaGirl
Member
Surprisingly on ICON at least on the frames that loaded, that wave over California doesn't seem to interact much with the wave we're looking at.
Snowed In
Member
Yep wave off cali is not interfering much, hmmm
whizrtr
Member
BMX:
Another thermally-induced surface high pressure slides through the region Friday afternoon through Saturday as the next clipper system dips through the Central Plains. Current timing of this system brings the increased PoPs in as early as Saturday evening into the night. This will be a system that we`ll have to watch for any winter precip as most guidance does suggest some transition line in the precipitation. However, there`s not too much consistency in the
precise timing, location, or orientation of the transition line. Plus, this is 6-7 days out and I have little confidence in the fine details of model guidance this far out. For now, I do have a chance for rain and/or a slight chance of winter precip mentioned for roughly the northern half of Central AL Saturday night through early Sunday morning, but I do expect this forecast to change.
Another thermally-induced surface high pressure slides through the region Friday afternoon through Saturday as the next clipper system dips through the Central Plains. Current timing of this system brings the increased PoPs in as early as Saturday evening into the night. This will be a system that we`ll have to watch for any winter precip as most guidance does suggest some transition line in the precipitation. However, there`s not too much consistency in the
precise timing, location, or orientation of the transition line. Plus, this is 6-7 days out and I have little confidence in the fine details of model guidance this far out. For now, I do have a chance for rain and/or a slight chance of winter precip mentioned for roughly the northern half of Central AL Saturday night through early Sunday morning, but I do expect this forecast to change.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
ICON looks like a freaking hurricane again. Also seems as if the energy transfer already looks to be happening, so this one might be a no too.
RollTide18
Member
Yeah the cold air is quickly retreating, per the ICON.
I feel like if this works out, itll work for Central NC to Eastern NC with very marginal temps. Probably dumping snow at like 35 degrees. I think people in SC would be to warm. But who knows really. Would hate to waste this storm track. We really need to find some cold air somehow.
Fountainguy97
Member
Hr 126 the gfs is definitely trending toward fv3.
Storm5
Member
The energy is so far SW
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Western ridge getting better on the gfs
tennessee storm
Member
Look for a north trend ? Maybe. We seeThe energy is so far SW
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Chattownsnow
Member
nothing showing on the surface this run at all. bone dry
mydoortotheworld
Member
GFS surface temps much warmer. Big yikes
Edit: Jesus by 144 they’re practically on fire
Edit: Jesus by 144 they’re practically on fire
Jessy89
Member
If Gfs,Fv3, euro all show nothing today. What would that tell us?
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
Member
2024 Supporter
2017-2023 Supporter
2025 Supporter
The PV is farther West as Kylo said to watch this morning, leaving room for mor W trackThe energy is so far SW
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
GeorgiaGirl
Member
Honestly the GFS looks like it's about to try to spark something, probably will be late though.
And yeah, compared to the last run it's much warmer early in the morning.
And yeah, compared to the last run it's much warmer early in the morning.