Lol competing trends
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Wintry 1/20 - 1/23 Winter Storm
- Thread starter packfan98
- Start date
i think the thing that’s really bothering me is how skinny the margin of error is and how much leverage small tweaks in the upper levels can have. The adjustments in the NAM were… not large. It’s not like the shortwave is jumping around a ton. The edge is really close and making this forecast feels like one of those hiking videos along a cliff face with no guardrail.
I’m trying to remain sanguine but I need to see some better adjustments first. Some WAR action (not the military kind) would be killer right now
packfan98
Moderator
And the Icon is much better. lol The northern stream energy dug a little more further west. Huge differences at the surface as a result. This is tricky!
!!
iGRXY
Member
One thing that I think we can hang our hat on is that the WAR is likely going to be stronger than modeled, as it always is. How much that can slow down the N/S and get it to dig more? Idk.
snowlover91
Member
ICON trend is nice but can it be trusted?
iGRXY
Member
Usually Ice totals don't verify but that's usually because the CAD is stronger than modeled and prime CAD regions get saved by more sleet than ZR. However, The Coast doesn't get that same extra push of cold through the upper levels of the atmosphere and being much closer to the WAA, that screams ice storm. The soundings on the 3K absolutely was ZR falling into temps in the 20's at the surface. I would be very worried if I was in the pee dee region.
Damn, the 18z ICON looks amazing, LOL. A huge improvement over the 12z run. That’s like 6-8” for RDU. Not sure what to think. Will be interesting to see the other modeling. The RGEM/GGEM should be out soon.
Downeastnc
Member
For some, I went from 7" of snow last run to less than 1" this run.....
D
Deleted member 609
Guest
-- hedging his bet
Fair point.
Definitely worse for east or I-95. Good run for Central NC up through SE VA. A more widespread event, but that definitely mixes you guys out east. I just haven’t seen more than a couple inches of snow in seven years, so I’m desperate haha.I will say this as someone who has bad-mouthed the ICON more than anyone… if it’s the model that starts the trend to get this back to a decent snow, I’ll take back every bad word and never bad mouth it again
lexxnchloe
Member
Wait on the 18 GFS. If that has a better trend then you can score.
12z FV3, NCEP's nextgen. Supports a 2 wave event, hard to say if we want more separation between the two waves or the energy in southern TX kicking ENE sooner, both scenarios may work but I like the former as opposed to the latter.
brendan123
Member
Wakefield in their latest forecast is still sticking mostly to their thoughts that they had before the latest models came out. Still looks great for many!
Heelyes
Member
I got you beat, I was 10 to 12 last night and now zero on the nam.
It's the ole Rain Cold thread the needle deal. The eye is quite small with this one but doable. The winning formula hasn't changed though. Keep the wave positive tilt down thru Missouri, then sharpen it strongly at the base and/or phase it with the southern stream late. Yesterday's 18z RDPS nailed it....ever since, we've moved more toward the northern stream being on its own, too far north, and too much positive tilt (good trends though possibly for those on the SE side of things)
Yeah RAH speaking as if snow is a certainty still
I think that is still from the 3:30 AM discussion? I don't see it updated on the NWS site of right now
wake4est
Member
- Joined
- Jan 3, 2017
- Messages
- 42
- Reaction score
- 98
It updated. As of 4:10pm.
The RGEM appears to have followed the NAM- eastward and much drier
iGRXY
Member
RGEM is worse.
Looks like the 18z RDPS is shifting SE, although not to the extent of the 18z NAM.
YVille1128
Member
No, it is from this afternoon. As of 4:10 Wednesday afternoon.
packfan98
Moderator
snowlover91
Member
18z RGEM lowers snow totals a little bit again vs 12z run and lowers qpf as well. Not a huge shift though.
For some reason it was still showing the 3:30 a.m. discussion for me, even after I cleared my cache.
It just updated to the 4:10 discussion for me
iGRXY
Member
A little better for extreme NE NC but no doubt it's dropping.
Thanks! That’s actually better than I figured it would be. Definitely not anything quite like the 18z NAM, although certainly a step in the wrong direction for some of us.
Actually lines up pretty well with the 18z RDPS from what I can gather.
CAE's update summarized:
models trending drier. Lack of model consistency sucks. Keeping watches. Still expect some qpf with cold air. Waiting for short range guidance to take over in reliable timeframe.
models trending drier. Lack of model consistency sucks. Keeping watches. Still expect some qpf with cold air. Waiting for short range guidance to take over in reliable timeframe.
At first glance from the 5h look I thought it was going to be an atrocious outcome- pleasantly surprised it was only “sort of worse”.
BelmontWX79
Member
Seemed like that NS dug in at the last minute saved Eastern NC.
SouthGarnerSleet
Member
I am shell shocked at the number of people jumping off the cliff for 1 NAM run. What in the weenieville is this?
it is not one run, all models have trended east since 06z.
This storm is such a pain to track
Iceagewhereartthou
Member
That's truly embarrasing. The 12k NAM was HORRIBLE for my area in December 2018 and I've never given it any cred since. It's complete garbage. 3K is better, but come on, this is junk.this was last nights run. just unreal how quick this went to **** in 3 runs.
today:
