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Wintry 1/20 - 1/23 Winter Storm

Im extremely confident in all frozen or nothing 85 corridor, Triad esp where I have mby goggles on.
like all of us, Im always looking, chasing for the all snow precip type storm. Give Fro credit. The War and the 50/50 confluence are possibke red flags for the midlayers. Which is where my battle seems to be shaping up at.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
What I don’t like is there’s less 50/50 low/less confluence, this thing still has room to go more west, but at this point Charlotte looks to get another mixed bag, impactful winter storm, it begins in 78~ hours after all, the wiggle rooms for taking Charlotte out of this is shrinking just off time and improving modeling skill as we get closer. I don’t buy the GFS at all tho, as the 18z CMC looked to be even more amped
Click to expand...
Yes I’m becoming convinced that I’m gonna sleet my way to an above average snowfall total this winter… lol. In all seriousness this certainly does look to be a high impact event for the entire CLT metro area. One of the things that could really help drive this CAD to overperform even from as strong as it looks now is the additional snowpack to our north. Right now GSP has me at a low of 19 Friday night with precipitation, and while I think teens might be pushing it, 21-23 seems fairly reasonable
 
NCSNOW said:
Im extremely confident in all frozen or nothing 85 corridor, Triad esp where I have mby goggles on.
like all of us, Im always looking, chasing for the all snow precip type storm. Give Fro credit. The War and the 50/50 confluence are possibke red flags for the midlayers. Which is where my battle seems to be shaping up at.
Click to expand...
This run was literally 2” of snow and a bunch of sleet in the lower 20s
 
Something to keep in the back of your head is that one of these days, those ice maps are going to come to fruition. We're not always going to luck out with sleet saving the day. Especially given the fact this area is so overdue for one. A lot of us are. Not saying this event, but it's also not looking great either.
 
Does anyone know if you can run snowfall maps on these models to show different ratios other than Kuchera or 10:1. When the amount of sleet these soundings are indicative of it may help to have a snowfall map based on 3:1 ratios since that’s the normal for sleet. It would help considering just how poor these models seem to do with distinguishing sleet from ZR on their surface reflection
 
Well if there’s one thing the NAM
Just cleaned up it’s that shortwave that enters the pacific north west, note the western ridge is taller, I think our main focus now is trying to fix the northern stream energy that goes over the NE/SE Canada and strengthening it, to suppress the WAR
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Well if there’s one thing the NAM
Just cleaned up it’s that shortwave that enters the pacific north west, note the western ridge is taller, I think our main focus now is trying to fix the northern stream energy that goes over the NE/SE Canada and strengthening it, to suppress the WAR
Click to expand...
WAR looks more suppressed this run as the northern stream is quite a bit stronger.
 
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