HixsonWX
Member
Interesting, I'm clicking on the 12z NAM on Pivotal and it is apparently opening the 00z run. I didn't see that until you pointed it out.
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Wintry 1/20 - 1/23 Winter Storm
- Thread starter packfan98
- Start date
HixsonWX
Member
Yep, Nevermind - I see the 12z NAM is on the same train as the other models. Don't mind me ?
well i will post good news where i can find it since we all need it.
hrrr looking better with precip at least early on with the first wave compared to its 12z run.
18z:
12z:
hrrr looking better with precip at least early on with the first wave compared to its 12z run.
18z:
I think @Myfrotho704_ was certainly on to something a page or so back talking about the SW flow aloft overrunning the cold air. The maps he posted clearly showed that and I'll be shocked if precip shield doesn't verify slightly NW and with a little more qpf than projected atm. If true, we'll probably see all the short range models start to pick up on that either 0z tonight or 6z tomorrow, just mho
- Joined
- Jan 23, 2021
- Messages
- 3,766
- Reaction score
- 11,808
- Location
- Lebanon Township, Durham County NC
Interesting potential western trend from half of the SREF members. It isn’t much but it is good news.
good to see, possible sign we see some precip nudge west in the 18z suite.
If I’m having to hang my hat on the Sref then I know its been a rough day. I have bad memories of how bad it busted for me in February 2015
Often is a sign that the NAM (and quite possibly other modeling) will follow at 18z, given the similarities between the SREF and NAM
I do agree with that. Still I try to not get caught up in any of the specifics it might throw out.
brendan123
Member
HRRR breaks out precip at the end of its run
Interesting 
long range hrrr throwing us a bone. i will take any hope i can find right now.
really gets going, would love to see the nam show this shortly.
The wave on the NAM looks a little sharper.
Yes it is. Since the more expansive precip on the west side of the system comes from strong FGEN forcing, the HRRR should be able to pick up on it before other models. This past storm with the front end snow on Saturday night is a great example,long range hrrr throwing us a bone. i will take any hope i can find right now.
The other thing the HRRR is really trying to do is make that first wave overnight Thursday and early Friday more robust with frozen precip starting earlier
iGRXY
Member
The SW doesn't look like it's getting stretched at 27. Looks like it's more in position to consolidate but where it goes from here is anyone's guess.
Cary_Snow95
Member
Looks pretty similar to me. No big changes
Cary_Snow95
Member
Maybe a little more stream interaction at 26
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Southern stream looks further north and stronger through 30 to me.
Cary_Snow95
Member
Northern stream still trending east quicker
iGRXY
Member
We will see where it goes but the SW looks better as it's not getting stretched and is better consolidated to be phased. Whether one actually happens is a different story
Cary_Snow95
Member
It’s gonna be a worse run
Cary_Snow95
Member
To me though it seems the ns still moving east and leaving it behind
iGRXY
Member
NAM is also much drier with the initial front at 36
iGRXY
Member
Yeah this run is likely going to be bad again.
Cary_Snow95
Member
This run is atrocious. Token flakes
Downeastnc
Member
I need that SN/IP line to hold and go south from there....friggen 22 at the surface WTF lol....wonder if it will stick
iGRXY
Member
Cold push is much better which should tell you the N/S is too far out ahead. only way it's going to work is the N/S diggs to the SW more or our SW has got to kick east at least around the southern border near Brownsville
Stormsfury
Member
Just throwing this out there ... WPC map
at 45 the hrrr had precip back near lancaster in sc. nam has it barely in myrtle.
LOL, it isn’t far enough to say that yet…Not looking great, mind you, but still. First wave is definitely a no go, but let’s see about the main wave.
iGRXY
Member
Eastern NC gets a whole bunch of nothing through 45
at 48 the precip is barely on the obx. was near raleigh at 12z. good grief.
NAM sucks
Yes, like the 06z run, which was a big hit with the second wave, regardless. I’m not sure why we are freaking out over the first wave? The second wave is where our bread will be buttered…or not. I don’t think this is going to be a good run, but still.
iGRXY
Member
I know the NAM has had issues showing precip and being too dry since the upgrade but this is ridiculous.
Cary_Snow95
Member
Watch the NS. We’ve got to stop that trend
Snowflowxxl
Member
Haven’t seen a storm go to hell so fast since January 2017.