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Wintry 1/20 - 1/23 Winter Storm

Something to keep an eye on, historical precedence for NE NC / SE VA supports a DC skip followed by impacts in New England. 18Z EC mean kinda jives but not quite there.
 
griteater said:
Even with the control phasing and hitting the big cities, it keeps CLT in the mid-upper 20’s thru the storm

Looks like the GFS is in trouble, but only time will tell
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What I don’t like is there’s less 50/50 low/less confluence, this thing still has room to go more west, but at this point Charlotte looks to get another mixed bag, impactful winter storm, it begins in 78~ hours after all, the wiggle rooms for taking Charlotte out of this is shrinking just off time and improving modeling skill as we get closer. I don’t buy the GFS at all tho, as the 18z CMC looked to be even more amped
 
Just want to remind everyone worried that this storm is going too far west.... all of the other modeling has it way more weaker and suppressed. Like most of you, I think the recent Euro depictions are probably closer to the correct outcome than other models, but I don't think we're going stronger and west of where the Euro is now.... when all the other modeling is so weak. I expect the Euro to nudge back and little on the intensity while all other modeling plays catch up on strengthening. Just my two cents.
 
Means in phasing scenarios are very helpful to inside 72hrs, this is largely a partial phase as I read it. Ideally the southern stream is leading through south central TX, with a northern stream parcel catching up in SE OK, late hookup, this is atypical by standard but still may work for areas south of the NC/VA boarder.
 
This is dejuva/groundhog day movie if it ever was. Last Mon into Tues we where scrapping for an inch, rooting for amp.
Same thing is happening again. Storm track included. Maybe it will nudge east from this past Sunday storm a shade or 2. Nevertheless mby is gonna get precip with surface temps, low 20s and warm nose hopefully shallow enough to deliver sleet instead of freezing rain. Want complain about 4 inches of snow and sleet combo. White Ground is White Ground.
Thats my gut feeling right now. You go back and read last week, this is turning into the same movie. Thankfully,once again the CAD is gonna be so strong it saves the day from frzng rain here. I hope.
 
WeatherNC said:
Means in phasing scenarios are very helpful to inside 72hrs, this is largely a partial phase as I read it. Ideally the southern stream is leading through south central TX, with a northern stream parcel catching up in SE OK, late hookup, this is atypical by standard but still may work for areas south of the NC/VA boarder.
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Always thought we need hookups to happen at or past Mississippi River. We want the Low to close off past that point.
Usually if its sooner,they cut to far west for us
 
NCSNOW said:
Always thought we need hookups to happen at or past Mississippi River. We want the Low to close off past that point.
Usually if its sooner,they cut to far west for us
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We do, my post was setting that stage, apologize for the confusion. Interaction starts ~ Ark-La-Tex, really dependent on how much energy can drop down in to the southern shortwave from the northern stream. Very close to constructive interference vs destructive, fine line and timing this go round / separation.
 
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