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Wintry 1/20 - 1/23 Winter Storm

BullCityWx said:
and people really need to watch tomorrow. Usually, in a scenario such as it is, we're waiting for the cold air to struggle over the hills. In this instance, it could slam through like a carolina norther.
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This 100%!! Short range models are picking up more frozen precip tomorrow night even back to CLT metro with the first wave. This isn’t the typical waiting for the cold air to spill over the mountains… this push is coming straight from the north with no mountains to impede it
 
NCHighCountryWX said:
View attachment 108302
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Very good map my only change would be a locally higher spots near Davie County NC where it supports more snow vs sleet than say Sandford, NC. I would tilt the axis of 1-3” favoring i77 and just east then lowering totals until going higher near Raleigh again. It’s gonna be a funky map in the end with sleet cutting totals in the east.
 
It’s tough. I think we’ve been harrumph harrumphing for years about you don’t want to be in the jackpot zone 2 days out, you want to be north of it! And now we’re here and I kinda of feel like the dog that caught the mail truck. Synoptically feels like a lot of the models took out trough and rotated in maybe 5 degrees clock wise. We got a bit more of a upper level cold press but sacrificed the tilt of the trough. Feels like we’re in a good spot but I’ll say it doesn’t inspire much confidence
 
BirdManDoomW said:
1” widespread snow should be a win ? for those near or west of i77. It better than 0”. It’s certainly feasible we get some advisory level snows near Davie County down to Concord (0.5”-2”). Time to stop being negative as we approach the event, I was just trying not to overhype this back on Saturday of last week. Advisory criteria is different for Wilkes/Surry so I would go with special weather statement 0.5”-2”.
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Oh I get what you’re saying. This past Sunday was the first time my ground has been white in nearly 3 years, so I’m not gonna complain about getting a lighter event. Still I would watch for some last minute adjustments back to the west… as many mets including Webb stated there’s nothing to prevent it
 
based on the little coverage you guys have done on the mid south area, not sure why the national weather service is continuing with it's "hazardous weather statement" for the Huntsville area. It seems as if precipitation is several hundred miles away
 
Isn't there some rule that precip always ends up further northwest than modeled? Or am I just being a giant ??
 
LithiaWx said:
Just fyi. Higher than 10:1 rates hardly ever verify in the south.
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Yup esp when it’s starting as rain and sleet is forecasted on top of a hell merry late blooming low pressure too far off the coast. If there’s gonna be greater than 10:1 it’s Virginia.
 
Broken024 said:
Isn't there some rule that precip always ends up further northwest than modeled? Or am I just being a giant ??
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Yes and there likely will be but the problem is you're trending so far east with the precip that how far west it goes looks to be less and less. Now if we can get a NW trend under 48 hours, which is typical, plus the more expansive precip field around verification, then that helps a lot more people.
 
The latest 15z RAP would be a fun event. Looks like over 20 hours of light snow/sleet to the end of the run (hr 51), and it's still coming down at that point.

www.pivotalweather.com

Models: RAP - Pivotal Weather

View RAP weather model forecast map image for 1 km AGL Reflectivity with Precip Type in Mid-Atlantic on pivotalweather.com.
www.pivotalweather.com www.pivotalweather.com
 
Cary_Snow95 said:
Realistically all we need is a little more tilt in the trough. Easy trend for 48 hours
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Need the Northern stream to push further west and basically force a phase on its own. That's a very real possibility as we have seen amping in the short range and more digging of the N/S the closer we get to the system. But that is going to need to start by 0Z tonight.
 
Broken024 said:
Isn't there some rule that precip always ends up further northwest than modeled? Or am I just being a giant ??
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People always say that and anecdotally it seems to happen, but I’d also like to see some statistics as confirmation bias is a hell of a thing.

Some of the modeling has Durham now on the far NW edge of the precip, which is a bit worrisome. There does seem to be some legitimacy for the precip shield often extending further NW than modeled with these setups, though. modernweenie
 
Chazwin said:
Ok at the risk of being a weenie, I’m gonna bring up the 2010 Christmas storm. That week on the 23rd, models started trended way east that morning and by the evening everyone on weather boards was putting a nail in the coffin on that storm. I remember though Brad P and Matthew East, along with a few other mets including Joe Bastardi, dug in and said the storm would still happen. Then we all watched the next day as the models started trending back west again throughout the day. I’m not saying that happens here, but living in the Carolinas for over 40 years tells me that even with what we’ve seen this morning, there should be a bigger footprint of snowfall back in the western area than what is currently being depicted
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Since moving here in 03, I can count on one hand in which storms never made a last-minute NW jog or the precip didn't expand more to the NW. We still have 48 hours to go. This is not me wishcasting, btw. Things could very well turn out bone dry for most of western NC. But still time to go and honestly it won't take much for things to favor more of a board-wide event.
 
Rain Cold said:
It's situational. It's not the autoguarantee that's often sold to you.
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I’d say NW trend most applies when we have an established SS gulf low approaching us from the SW and moving into a marginal temperature environment. In this case, the storm is trying to crank up more on top of us with cold pressing in from the north
 
So move this to banter if it doesn't belong here but looking at the NWS blend, since it's using 10:1 ratios, wouldn't amounts back west between I-77 and I-95 be higher due to higher snow ratios.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Not much of a difference from the NAM, I consider it a possibility given the SW flow aloft and sagging shallow Arctic cold front allowing overrunning potential early on
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There seems to be a weak impulse that moves through the area favoring this overrunning. It's pretty weak so something I expect globals might miss whereas NAM/RAP/HRRR would be more likely to pick up on it. You can see that impulse moving through TN/GA here.
namconus_z500_vort_us_27.png
 
snowlover91 said:
There seems to be a weak impulse that moves through the area favoring this overrunning. It's pretty weak so something I expect globals might miss whereas NAM/RAP/HRRR would be more likely to pick up on it. You can see that impulse moving through TN/GA here.
namconus_z500_vort_us_27.png
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Yeah the warm air advection that comes with it in the mid levels is solid, something to watch, probably would be more IP/ZR then anything 0A326F43-8F29-4D3D-81AA-8D207F3BEFAA.png
 
Downeastnc said:
Miller A's are famous for their brutal NW side cutoffs.....somewhere its gonna go from 4" to nothing over 20-30 miles.....
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That is true, it’s more typical with a stronger storm. I lived in southern Cabarrus County during the 2000 Crusher and while I got right at 10 inches, just 15 miles from me in Concord got only 3 and 5 miles further northwest was dry. A weaker Miller A will typically have better FGEN forcing on the northwest side and more overrunning
 
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