Wintry 1/20 - 1/23 Winter Storm

[Ollie Williams]

I think the Icon might have the right idea here for the moment. Pretty much has the transition line along hwy 64 in NC from Murphy to Manteo, waffling 30-50 miles either direction from run to run. Its clown shows this. See how it shakes down at h5 placement of features next couple cycles. That will tell us alot

I love for it to be right. However, you should never underestimate the WAR, that's why you should go with the warmest model.

 

[griteater]

Just out of curiosity… where the 850s are 1-2c, can those not be cooled just enough with enough forcing and lift?

General rule is that for a warm layer with wet bulb temps of 0 to +1, the snowflake will just partially melt but remain as snow. If +1 to +3, sleet

 

[brendan123]

Biggest shift in the EPS snow map for the past few runs. Largest mean used to be along VA/NC coast, now between Richmond and DC

 

[HKY1994]

Wow EPS mean snowfall increased big time it looks like. Acutually they moved northwest less in coastal areas


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[Ollie Williams]

Any chance for it to trend weaker or is it pretty much what we get this close to the event?

If you can get the trough out ahead of the system to get stronger, then it can suppress the WAR. However, the trend has been apparent of the opposite.

 

[WeatherNC]

Pretty impressive look on the 12Z EC, >40F surface delta T across 80 miles Kinston to east of Lookout, despite the inflection point at the surface, 850s are torching through the eastern Coastal Plain, 700mb in between for reference.

 

[NCSNOW]

Here you go

 

[Ollie Williams]

Here you go

I'm 90% sure that that algorithm counts anything frozen as snow. Wxbells maps look entirely different.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Here you go

That’s a crap ton of sleet/ZR, even if that’s not really the amount of sleet there is

 

[Broken024]

Here you go

Wait is this real? 8 inch mean in Charlotte?

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Wait is this real? 8 inch mean in Charlotte?

In sleet

 

[BullCityWx]

Wait is this real? 8 inch mean in Charlotte?

No. Probably lots and lots and lots of sleet.

 

[Broken024]

In sleet

Yea just saw your post

 

[John1122]

Last 4 runs of the Euro that reach the hr 90 of 18z.

 

[NCSNOW]

Another image stoleing from MA thread.

 

[bouncycorn]

Wxbell & weatherus both show EPS output completely different from StormVista.

 

[NCSNOW]

Wait is this real? 8 inch mean in Charlotte?

Yes/ with warm nose issues
You ought to see the phase off the control at h5 from 18z

 

[LukeBarrette]

Hopefully this comes back south for y’all. We do not need anymore in Roanoke. ?

 

[NCSNOW]

This pups gonna phase , just a matter when, where ,how strong

 

[KyloG]

in all seriousness, this is shaping up to the canonical winter storm…85 and west look good. We are approaching day 3…it can only go so far west. ?

GSO