my god.
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Wintry 1/20 - 1/23 Winter Storm
- Thread starter packfan98
- Start date
Gonna park this here, current hazards, and will post this time tomorrow and again on Friday. Those are winter storm warnings in southern TX, criteria threshold while low is still impressive.
The ol south east trend not even Nostradamus could’ve seen that coming!
alfoman
Member
Absolutely crazy to see the WAR recede further and further each run, like the exact OPPOSITE of what we've expierenced a million times. Of course this comes during the one time we do not need it to.
iGRXY
Member
This is basically the entire event.
iGRXY
Member
Only hope is that the WAR is being undermodeled like usual to help slow down the N/S. The SW in the southwest actually trended better but the N/S is progressing too far east too fast.
Looking like the second wave might be a complete whiff out to hr 51. Not good, LOL. Surprising after the 15z SREF.
Cary_Snow95
Member
I’m really beginning to think this is gonna be a frontal passage with a little cold chasing moisture
i mean this is hall of fail worthy.
I mean I have never seen this model dry up that much over this few runs ever.
iGRXY
Member
3K has more precip further north but it's really a mute point as none of it is snow and it's really restricted to SE NC and along and south of 20.
snowlover91
Member
The 3km is better than 12km nam with some ice and snow in extreme eastern nc, but worse than its 12z run.
iGRXY
Member
All the NAM has is a dried up Frontal passage as it crosses the Apps and that's it. Just cold and dry.
It really surprising to see this after that HRRR and Sref… I wasn’t expecting it to come back to last night’s dream solution, but I thought it might be a little improved
The 18z NAM is legit like a 200 mile shift east in sensible weather. Unreal. I’m definitely concerned now.
iGRXY
Member
3K gets it going more but again it's basically light snow showers for about 30 miles and the rest is sleet and ZR along and east of 95
I mean seriously has any shift like that every occurred with the NAM in such a short amount of time?? I don’t remember it.
snowlover91
Member
It's easy to see at the 7h level why the NAM has been getting worse. Look at the 6z run vs 18z. The 7h lift is offshore and flatter = no lift or moisture transport over NC.
January 2017. It shifted the Triangle plus Charlotte right out of the picture in last 36hrs. That was a NW trend though.
There is no storm without a robust wave or a combination of the two waves. Right now we have a front with a couple of weak jabroni waves that miss each other. Good lesson: NEVER expect the SREF to lead the way on anything. 102 pages for clouds.
iGRXY
Member
Only thing from the the 3K is it is one badass Ice storm along and east of 95 in SC and SE NC. Looking at the soundings, It's definitely all ZR and it's falling into temps in the upper 20's.
While this is a bad trend, just a reminder of how bad the nam can be, this was the jan 2-3 system lol at hour 51
this was last nights run. just unreal how quick this went to **** in 3 runs.
today:
today:
MichaelJ
Member
If this was a Tropical Storm, it would be downgraded to an Easterly Wave by now or even an "area of thunderstorms". Where is Neil Frank when you need him??? ?
iGRXY
Member
And it's still going with the Ice at the end of the run. That is a true ice storm. Soundings are ZR all the way and accrual would be a lot as the precip really isn't heavy and temps hold around 27-30 degrees with the CAD reinforcing the cold.
Christian T Murray
Member
As quickly as this went downhill, it can come back uphill just as quick. At least wait till op runs come out before discrediting the potentional of this storm. Precipitation shield will shift some west. East of raleigh and north of greenville, nc will still see the biggest impacts in my opinion.
Yeah but even that was more of trend based on thermals. CLT still had close to the forecasted QPF, just more of it come down as rain and official the airport still 2” of snow/sleet. What the NAM has done the last 3 runs is just crazy. What really gives me pause is comparing to the HRRR… in this run the NAM even basically dried up the frontal passage and first wave as well, while the HRRR has been trending wetter on that all day. Yes it’s the long range HRRR, but it’s really done very well with these set ups in the Carolinas which is why I give it some weight. Both models are ran off the same data, so it certainly gives you reason for pause
iGRXY
Member
FGEN and overrunning is going to happen causing more precip than what the models are showing as we have stated multiple times. Problem is the main precip shield on the models is going so far SE that even the additional NW coverage that they aren't picking up on is starting to look like it might go as far west as 95 but is trending to maybe only the immediate coast even getting any precip.
Downeastnc
Member
WEATHERBOYROY
Member
I'm not a big fan of the SREF, It usually is the last place you can find hope in a storm. But, Jan 28 2014, it was the only model that gave the precip a chance to hit the ground in central Al......I guess even a blind pig does find an acorn sometimes ?
Downeastnc
Member
jesus this thread..... here is the18z ICON showing more precip out west...relax, it was one run of the NAM....
Downeastnc
Member
Even better a few frames later......
Hmm, I think the 18z ICON might be coming in west of the 12z run.
Isn't that early hour Icon stuff part of the initial frontal passage? Nothing to do with the big dog that had been progged on the back?
Edit: I can see something going on in the gulf over texas; guess we'll see.
Edit: I can see something going on in the gulf over texas; guess we'll see.
Yeah I get that with the 2nd wave, but like I said the NAM just basically dried up the frontal passage and the wave that’s coming through at that time..: the HRRR has been showing more moisture with it
Downeastnc
Member
yeah it didnt have the second piece till hr 63 last run
Yeah, it is, but the alignment looks a bit better to me, as a result, for the second part. Of course, famous last words and all that…