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Wintry 1/20 - 1/23 Winter Storm
- Thread starter packfan98
- Start date
Cary_Snow95
Member
I mean the NAM and RAP are duds. The gfs has cut totals by 80%. Everything is going the same direction
The RAP has been really bad…I used to look at it but it’s awful. The HRRR has been usable and was pretty good for Sundays deal.
SouthGarnerSleet
Member
Don’t bother. Half the group jumped off the cliff at the 18z NAM and GFS. Weenieville.
snowlover91
Member
18z CMC was improved from the 12z run, looks like it and ICON were the only 2 improvements in the 18z cycle.
Basically my thinking
Yes I think a lot on here will be happy with any snow falling from the sky ? and there is certainly still a chance of that for a lot of folks
To my surprise FFC still has wintry precip in the forecast grid for my area from Thursday night into Saturday. I figured they would have removed it completely by now. Their afternoon disco suggested they’re concerned for freezing drizzle regardless once the arctic air settles in behind the front tomorrow.
snowlover91
Member
RGEM 18z ensembles. Looks like a mix between whiffs and stronger ICON like scenarios. I counted 12/20 that were solid NC hits and the remaining 8/20 are either coastal only or whiffs.
Downeastnc
Member
Yeah Brad P has scaled back his totals from earlier today as well. Still has 1-2” inches for areas south of I-85 and east of I-77 in the metro area then Trace-1” north and west of there. He says that things can still shift either way
snowlover91
Member
Didn't see it posted by 18z GEFS was worse, much worse. Not going to even bother posting it is so bad.
mjscott30
Member
Looks like BMX has backed off of the freezing rain for MTGY. I'm happy about that. I wasn't looking forward to an icy commute. Sorry about the snow for you NC people.
One thing that this has done today is reaffirmed my preference that a good old southern slider overrunning set up is always preferable than having to depend on phasing
NCSNOW
Member
Classic fail. Never forgetI think this was a home Panthers game where Cantore showed up? I was in the stands and got a sun burnFootball and a snowstorm in the south? Game on. Nope.
here’s the latest run. It’s running again now and will post that when it’s finished. 
Attachments
Yes it was… 8-12” forecast the night before. It had been cut down to 3-5” by morning. I was at the game too… when I left my house in Concord about 8am to go start tailgating, there was very light snow starting and thought this was about to fun, but by the time I got to downtown the sun was starting to come outI think this was a home Panthers game where Cantore showed up? I was in the stands and got a sun burn
Downeastnc
Member
18Z Ukie......
Looks better than the 12z with precip further west.
Cary_Snow95
Member
The scale is a little deceiving
WRAL discussion. They sound bullish. I honestly don't know...
www.wral.com
Weather forecast for Raleigh, Durham and Fayetteville
The coldest air this season is making its way to the Triangle.
www.wral.com
Cary_Snow95
Member
I’ve noticed they usually run about 12 hours behindWRAL discussion. They sound bullish. I honestly don't know...
Weather forecast for Raleigh, Durham and Fayetteville
The coldest air this season is making its way to the Triangle.
Who got the uk ensembles
Downeastnc
Member
WRAL discussion. They sound bullish. I honestly don't know...
Weather forecast for Raleigh, Durham and Fayetteville
The coldest air this season is making its way to the Triangle.
I think several reasons....one is these systems almost always end up a little colder and have more QPF than modeled....they are hedging their bets they would rather knock totals down a bit tomorrow than have to really ramp it up late in the game. As alluded to by several there is a very fine line between next to nothing and a fairly significant storm.....if the storm was tomorrow night and trends were like today that would be a much bigger deal but the prime time is Friday night still 48 hrs out.. This could still very much be a big hit for the Triangle.....climo kinda suggest that its even almost likely to overperform the modeling since overrunning type events tend to do that....
Slightly more WAR on the euro so far at hour 20ish let’s see how that benefits us
NCSNOW
Member
18z Ukie the first step back NW. Need to do this MA style tonight and for once expierence that last day euphoria.
JHS
Member
For most of us Dec 2000 will hold that title.
It’s amazing that we’re rooting for a more strengthened western Atlantic ridge
Lol euro has a decent 1-2 inch snow across the north Charlotte area with the Arctic front itself so far
Wait this euro run is actually a solid step
In a good direction
In a good direction
NCSNOW
Member
Oh itll show up for the end of next weeks storm and everyone after.
Cary_Snow95
Member
Was just about to post. Was looking at crude maps and seems a good bit better than the GFS. Way better orientation between streams
Downeastnc
Member
850 line 50 miles the wrong way at 48 hrs.....
Cary_Snow95
Member
There’s always this 
There’s life !!!
12z
18z
12z
18z
lexxnchloe
Member
Ukmet 4-6 for greenville?