snowlover91
Member
00z HRRR looks solid so far with the arctic front through hour 24.
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Wintry 1/20 - 1/23 Winter Storm
- Thread starter packfan98
- Start date
23z Thursday .. first image is 18z next is 00z HRRR 
iGRXY
Member
First glance on the phone. I think the HRRR looks better at H5 so far but don’t hold me to that yet
iGRXY
Member
Ehhhhhhhhhh
iGRXY
Member
Yeah it’s worse
Yeah the hrrr is following the RAP, not surprised
Yeah like you said, that was to be expected after that latest RAP
Why would their be? The image is a radar prediction.
Little surprised to see this from RAH, 7 pm update, they are sticking to their guns
Ward Cleaver
Member
[Price Is Right loser horn goes here]
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I don’t know who needs to hear this but Weather.us has extracted UKMET data for all runs.
This run just looks odd and not how precipitation usually developed and spreads in the SE with these events .. I’m calling sketchy 
NAM looks worse with the northern stream
Experience tells me precip would be slightly more expansive then that not by much maybe 75 miles NW
Cary_Snow95
Member
00z NAM has more WAR @14
Wonder how the stronger WAR effete this run
They usually make adjustments slowly. It's going to be hard not to cut those drastically if the zero Zs come in like a desert.
Southern stream looks better on NAM tho not sure it matters though
iGRXY
Member
Got a feeling the outcome is set regardless of the small tweaks we get here and there. It’s going to take more than small shifts of the waves to get this back for most of us
We suck, normally we do the opposite 
stronger se ridge is good because it takes the mid-level winds and gives them a bit more of a southerly component which would lead to more veering- the more veering we can get the more lift we produce. at least that's how i read it
The tough thing is that I'm looking at the difference at 5h between last night's 00z banger and the other runs today and... it's not that much difference. This is a pretty high leverage situation where small tweaks can mean the difference between nothing and inches in select counties
This might be the main show now lol
iGRXY
Member
Definitely can get those small tweaks to get this one back. Starting with more WAR to slow down our N/S. Usually that trends stronger than models show but we need it to flex more and then worry about the potential WAA later. But it’s just not trending that way enough for me to think this is going to be an event west of 95 at this point. Maybe we can get a miracle tho
SouthGarnerSleet
Member
They don’t react to random Nam and gfs 18z runs as much as the forum.
honestly so far i don't hate this run, heights are higher in the east, parent trough feels a little less positively titled, our northern stream shortwave looks like it's leaning back further west a touch, interested to see where this rolls
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That’s the whole professional thing
NAM is at least slightly better
lexxnchloe
Member
alot better
Sure, but we need to see some significant changes right more in line of what we saw with the 18z Euro and we just aren’t seeing that on the NAM.
iGRXY
Member
NAM at least has moisture back to the 95 corridor. That alone is a big improvement but idk how you could’ve had a worse run than the 18z
lexxnchloe
Member
An improvement.
lexxnchloe
Member
Now lets see if the icon and gfs get a bit better.