• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Wintry 1/20 - 1/23 Winter Storm

frank ocean said:
honestly so far i don't hate this run, heights are higher in the east, parent trough feels a little less positively titled, our northern stream shortwave looks like it's leaning back further west a touch, interested to see where this rolls
Click to expand...
We've seen the Nam really change drastically in the hours leading up to many events through the years. So it being dry in and of itself is not all that concerning. The trend across most model suites over the course of the day toward dry has been a bit concerning.

That said, as you pointed out, the things that need to change aren't that drastic. It's not we have a wave in Maine and a wave in Texas and we need to get them to merge within the next 36 hours. It's not like we need an arctic air mass to appear out of nowhere. We just need a few small changes to a few features that are already on the field. That's doable, at least to an extent.

What if, over the course of the day, models have not been able to see an influential piece of energy that wasn't in a well-sampled location that is potentially an influencing agent on the flow? Maybe that comes back into better view tonight. I don't know, but we're not asking for or needing a ton here.

Anyway, we have an arctic front and a couple of pieces of energy in pretty close proximity to each other. You never know.
 
frank ocean said:
honestly so far i don't hate this run, heights are higher in the east, parent trough feels a little less positively titled, our northern stream shortwave looks like it's leaning back further west a touch, interested to see where this rolls
Click to expand...
The amount of run to run changes and general disagreement between models is a real mess....hate to have to forecast this...I hate to even say it even but this is gonna be one now casting as it happens systems
 
Rain Cold said:
We've seen the Nam really change drastically in the hours leading up to many events through the years. So it being dry in and of itself is not all that concerning. The trend across most model suites over the course of the day toward dry has been a bit concerning.

That said, as you pointed out, the things that need to change aren't that drastic. It's not we have a wave in Maine and a wave in Texas and we need to get them to merge within the next 36 hours. It's not like we need an arctic air mass to appear out of nowhere. We just need a few small changes to a few features that are already on the field. That's doable, at least to an extent.

What if, over the course of the day, models have not been able to see an influential piece of energy that wasn't in a well-sampled location that is potentially an influencing agent on the flow? Maybe that comes back into better view tonight. I don't know, but we're not asking for or needing a ton here.

Anyway, we have an arctic front and a couple of pieces of energy in pretty close proximity to each other. You never know.
Click to expand...

Already been pondering this. There's so much energy darted around, that the physics of losing one causes feedback on other pieces that are observed on outputs.
 
Downeastnc said:
The amount of run to run changes and general disagreement between models is a real mess....hate to have to forecast this...I hate to even say it even but this is gonna be one now casting as it happens systems
Click to expand...
I see the NAM as a bit better. Lets not forget what the euro/icon showed at 18Z. What if they improve just a bit. Everything IS NOT doom and gloom tonight.
 
As doom and gloom as this system appears, the bust high potential on this is very very big IMO. As others have stated, the players are on the field. And we’re getting what we want with our 2 pieces of energy, it’s just happening too late on the models. This easily could phase earlier and we get a very good storm across the Carolinas and Georgia. The now casting of this event I think is going to be a lot more unknown than any other storm that trended poorly the closer we got and everyone was just holding out for a glimpse of hope. This very easily could turn into a major winter storm at go time. That bust potential is very much in play here.
 
In the broad scheme of things, the models all agree of a much drier, less amplified idea. So we do have agreement on that front. Its not like the GFS & Euro are at odds with one wrapped up system vs nothing.
 
iGRXY said:
As doom and gloom as this system appears, the bust high potential on this is very very big IMO. As others have stated, the players are on the field. And we’re getting what we want with our 2 pieces of energy, it’s just happening too late on the models. This easily could phase earlier and we get a very good storm across the Carolinas and Georgia. The now casting of this event I think is going to be a lot more unknown than any other storm that trended poorly the closer we got and everyone was just holding out for a glimpse of hope. This very easily could turn into a major winter storm at go time. That bust potential is very much in play here.
Click to expand...
As much as I'd like to believe it that would be a model bust of epic proportions considering all the consensus on a dryer situation overall on Friday.
 
brendan123 said:
View attachment 108518
It stopped ticking SE at least. Likely doesn't get back to anywhere near as amplified as it was in earlier runs, but a few more NW shifts with the precip seem possible.
Click to expand...
That surface low did trend west well over 100 miles, so better overall. I am still more interested in the other output coming up than the post 48 hr NAM.
 
Stormsfury said:
Already been pondering this. There's so much energy darted around, that the physics of losing one causes feedback on other pieces that are observed on outputs.
Click to expand...
It just points out they need to spend the money for more buoys at sea, and sensors on land. The models are only as good is the input data, and when you get a complicated set up, they just spin their eyes and drool, lol.
 
What is it that’s causing this storm to go out to sea. Iv never seen this before. It’s almost always a guarantee for it to come back to us.
 
Stephenb888 said:
What is it that’s causing this storm to go out to sea. Iv never seen this before. It’s almost always a guarantee for it to come back to us.
Click to expand...
A lot of things but in quick summary the northern stream is progressive and there's nothing going on to stop it (at this point)

The most supreme runs with most precip well inland had more ridging in the atlantic and it caused the northern stream to slow and the southern wave to catch up/vice versa.
 
Stephenb888 said:
What is it that’s causing this storm to go out to sea. Iv never seen this before. It’s almost always a guarantee for it to come back to us.
Click to expand...
Really nothing is going out to sea because there’s no LP that forms until it’s off the Carolina coast. The wave in the southwest and the northern stream need to phase together as the northern branch swings down. Problem is the northern branch is moving too fast and about the only thing that can slow it down is the Atlantic ridge. If that trends stronger then it can slow the N/S down and the wave in the southwest can catch up for a phase. Problem is you run the risk of more WAA in the upper levels causing more ice and sleet. It has to be a perfect balance for snow for most of us outside of those who live east of 95.
 
I am going to say this is one of the bigger fails I have seen in a while. I guess it was always phase dependent and the phase we do not seem to get this time. I have seen a few slip away to the SE but this was hero to 0 in the short range.

3K NAMhas a backside frontal flizzard tomorrow, so I guess I will hug that ?

Hope the coastal sections real this one in!
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top