It was too far southeast, this should be a warning shot
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Wintry 1/20 - 1/23 Winter Storm
- Thread starter packfan98
- Start date
It was too far southeast, this should be a warning shot
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Translation: a lot of ZR and IP Macon to Augusta to Columbia to Fayetteville and points east to the coast on the 0Z UK since the 850 line is still then well inland. That’s a lot of it over a big area!
Hopefully we were not looking at 10:1 and more at the larger synoptic picture modeled.
bouncycorn
Meteorologist
I will say though... this upcoming system is much more upper air: synoptic-oriented which UKMET is great at. Last system was largely dominated by mesoscale interaction between hp and lp.
Went from ots to a small sliver on ENC to now a dusting in CLT lol
Snowflowxxl
Member
The UKMET at this range with the last system was really SE, so we will have to wait and see
Beat me to it. Betting a lot that this system won’t be like the UK in terms of covering all of NC. Saving that solution for the UK dumpster model file again!
The euro should be telling on which way we should be prioritizing our thoughts trend wise
bouncycorn
Meteorologist
Really feeling like (totally not a wishcast) this will shift NW/phase earlier and give North Georgia a really nice event.
You just had your storm man. But In all honesty this is really ripe pattern for s/e Virginia and north eastern NC to even get that freak blizzard if it would bomb out.i know Raleigh wants in and deserves it I hope it trends in their favor not ours.
I thought the UKMET was lock in step with most up to like 24-36 hours before main event but yeah then was garbage
Yeah, other models have spoken now including the NAM tonight. It's the euro's call (or raise) coming up
Hypsometric
Member
Euro has been trending towards the solution the UKMET just had. If these two can latch onto a similar solution inside D4, I think you can start to put some weight behind it.
Snownut
Member
Yep I've been saying this same thing for awhile now. We've seen it time and time again when these things start showing the coast in the Game, time and time again they will shift NW usually taking the lower south out of the game. I think Midlands will get and ice storm but that Snow line will be further NW
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oh and I’m not calling for a dusting in Charlotte by the way I think it would be less than that.i was just looking at 0z output and it def doesn’t change anything from me
bingcrosbyb
Member
That is beautiful at this stage.
farleydawg792
Member
UK is top end, upper portion of guidance envelope at this still early stage. Streams starting to interact IVO Ark-La-Tex is a good thing within reason, too much play and thermals will respond. Very fine line like always living 1-2C above 925mb this time of year.