Downeastnc
Member
Just need the low to slow down 6 hrs and not be in such a damn hurry....
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Wintry 1/20 - 1/23 Winter Storm
- Thread starter packfan98
- Start date
UK
weather bubba
Member
Even that looks better than the previous UK model run, although not by much. I'm hopeful the next run of the EURO follows suit and continues the slight westward trends from the other models we've been seeing tonight.
I'm not liking where this is headed right now
.
.
While not great, NAM and GFS ticked better, euro is still a good hit, so is the ICON, so is the RGEM, so is the CMC
So right now it looks like the GFS/NAM/UKMET (to a lesser extent) against every other model out there. I thought the GFS and NAM looked a little better at 00z, but to have complete whiffs on some of the models at this stage is definitely a cause for concern.
The GFS runs continue to on their own pretty much have the 2nd wave’s northern extent of its precip precariously close to here Sat afternoon and evening. The 0Z GEFS, like recent GEFS, also still shows certain members that have something similar. This period is still a very cold period that is subject to ZR should precip make it back up this far north. Any opinions about the GFS with this wave?
0Z GFS 2nd wave:
0Z GEFS 2nd wave: some members do have precip even north of here:
0Z GFS 2nd wave:
0Z GEFS 2nd wave: some members do have precip even north of here:
Stormsfury
Member
Saw that earlier. These are the sneaker systems that typically burnt us back in the 80s when modeling was nowhere near advanced as it is today.
0Z CMC ens not as close as GFS but it is not real far away either/there’d better not be a NW trend later:
Meh
The 00z Euro ticked east by a good 50 miles versus 18z. Good hit for PGV up to ORF. Much worse for RDU. I guess I should‘ve went to bed before Dr. No hit. ?
Downeastnc
Member
Euro pretty good run for us eastern NC folks......really almost all models have PGV around 4-6" just need that to hold serve.
Downeastnc
Member
Really we just need the northern stream to go neutral over NC this will slow the whole thing down....plus deepen the 850's and give us snow longer with better deeper cold....and its so close to doing that...the biggest reason we dont score big here is it over so fast,
Shaggy
Member
latest point and click from MHX has us going all snow from 11pm friday till 11am saturday.
Wow more moist atmosphere ummm
Sizable NW jump on the 06z HRRR
The general trend of the last few EPS means is clearly further north with the next wave on Saturday. This is the wave that the GFS suite has precariously close to the GA/lower SC coast. ZR on Saturday afternoon and evening would be the main threat there should this keep trending north:
Attachments
The slightest of improvements
Energy is back to looking like crap on models 
Beyond crap.Energy is back to looking like crap on models
The 6Z NAM increased the qpf for Fri night and Saturday morning (much in the form of ZR) in E SC CHS south and S GA vs 0Z/18Z/12Z runs (still too low to be a disaster thank goodness):
24 hour qpf 0Z Sat to 0Z Sun
6Z run:
0Z run:
18Z run:
12Z run:
6Z run precip types:
24 hour qpf 0Z Sat to 0Z Sun
6Z run:
0Z run:
18Z run:
12Z run:
6Z run precip types:
Last edited:
6z MMFS snowfall accums & freezing rain accums, remains very consistent with this solution.
Shaggy
Member
Seems at 36 gfs is a bit slower/digging SW and has a little more interaction between the energy
packfan98
Moderator
Best gfs we’ve had in 24 hours! 6z RGEM was really good too. Definitely some positives from overnight.
lexxnchloe
Member
06 gfs?
raine1212
Member
Maybe we have a chance
FXUS62 KCAE 200923
AFDCAE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
423 AM EST Thu Jan 20 2022
.SYNOPSIS... Clouds continue to move into the region ahead of a cold
front that will move across the region this afternoon. Rain will
move into the Midlands and Central Savannah River Area early today
and continue through Friday night. Temperatures will quickly fall
late this afternoon and especially tonight into Friday. A Winter
Weather Advisory is in effect for the entire Midlands of SC with
impacts in the CSRA still possible. Ice accumulations will near
0.10" across the eastern forecast area, while snowfall totals less
than an inch possible over the norther Midlands. Cold air fills
behind the wintry weather for Saturday lasting into next week.
FXUS62 KCAE 200923
AFDCAE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
423 AM EST Thu Jan 20 2022
.SYNOPSIS... Clouds continue to move into the region ahead of a cold
front that will move across the region this afternoon. Rain will
move into the Midlands and Central Savannah River Area early today
and continue through Friday night. Temperatures will quickly fall
late this afternoon and especially tonight into Friday. A Winter
Weather Advisory is in effect for the entire Midlands of SC with
impacts in the CSRA still possible. Ice accumulations will near
0.10" across the eastern forecast area, while snowfall totals less
than an inch possible over the norther Midlands. Cold air fills
behind the wintry weather for Saturday lasting into next week.
NCSNOW
Member
packfan98
Moderator
Looks good, but not sure if it's a "blip" in the runs. I like it, but it needs support (at least for me..).
lexxnchloe
Member
big improvement
Shaggy
Member
The rgem was real close to and the gfs took a good step.as well. A little more delay in that N/S and a touch more neutral and it's good
If these models end up wrong less than 2 days out they should be shamed for life 
6z Icon has decreased totals but falls in the GFS camp (it's been the most consistent):
MMFS 06z experimental winter storm impact tool maxes out in parts of NC.
Latest 9z RAP holds serve with its totals. These would match the Advisory's that are now issued for central NC. The one thing that this tells me is we do still have an event. Late last night I thought that we had a good chance of seeing nothing.
The Canadian from 0z looks a little like the latest RAP:
