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Wintry 1/20 - 1/23 Winter Storm

Call it wishcasting or what you want but while the energy looked worse on the 6z NAM the precip shield expanded NW slightly. Tells me it's catching up on that and if things change at H5 in the slightest could still be a decent event. Today's data gonna be interesting
 
metwannabe said:
Last 3 runs of GFS, can it lead the way or is it still crap? Lol. It was just enough for RAH to continue with the WSW, you can hear their frustration in the AFD, tough forecast

View attachment 108654
Click to expand...
The rgem is also beefing up and it's not out of the question with all the energy in this setup. We just need to watch the next couple of cycles and see if it trends wetter.
 
Shaggy said:
The rgem is also beefing up and it's not out of the question with all the energy in this setup. We just need to watch the next couple of cycles and see if it trends wetter.
Click to expand...
What got my attention was it was every single version of the GEM - their HRRR, RGEM and GEM.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Man just a little bit more 1 more View attachment 108667View attachment 108668
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At this point we’re just talking about some very subtle changes that are completely possible that would turn this into a potentially significant event. Who would have thought a month ago that we would actually be pulling for the WAR to flex stronger than modeled at the last minute to help deliver a decent snow?
 
Looking at the data we need to get the storm to slow down so we can tap into these kind of rates/rations...this is for PGV on the 6Z GFS ratios 13-23:1 gives us 3" in 3 hrs.....temps low 20's, pure powder, just need it to give us 2-3 more hrs of this to take this from 3-5" to something more memorable....that's 3" of snow for .11" QPF....

220122/0500Z 47 36011KT 24.0F SNOW 19:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.057 10:1| 3.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.37 100| 0| 0
220122/0600Z 48 36010KT 23.8F SNOW 23:1| 1.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.061 12:1| 5.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.43 100| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
220122/0700Z 49 36012KT 23.6F SNOW 13:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.053 12:1| 5.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.48 100| 0| 0
 
This morning, about 2/3rds of SC is under either an Advisory or Watch. NC has Warnings roughly east of 95, with WWAs stretching west to about 85 or so.

Ice Storm Warnings for NC and border SC beach counties, which is I believe is extremely rare.
 
31hrs in duration, Coast is under a Ice Storm Warning for 1/4-1/2”

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
445 AM EST Thu Jan 20 2022

NCZ029-044>046-079-202145-
/O.UPG.KMHX.WS.A.0001.220121T0000Z-220122T1700Z/
/O.NEW.KMHX.WS.W.0001.220121T0500Z-220122T1200Z/
Martin-Pitt-Washington-Tyrrell-Greene-
Including the cities of Williamston, Robersonville, Oak City,
Jamesville, Greenville, Bethel, Farmville, Grifton, Grimesland,
Plymouth, Roper, Creswell, Columbia, Gum Neck, Snow Hill,
Hookerton, and Walstonburg
445 AM EST Thu Jan 20 2022

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM
EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet
accumulations of 3 to 5 inches and ice accumulations of around
one tenth of an inch.

* WHERE...Martin, Pitt, Washington, Tyrrell and Greene Counties.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to 7 AM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous
conditions will impact the morning and evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency.

The latest road conditions for North Carolina can be found online
at DriveNC.gov.
 
WeatherNC said:
31hrs in duration, Coast is under a Ice Storm Warning for 1/4-1/2”

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
445 AM EST Thu Jan 20 2022

NCZ029-044>046-079-202145-
/O.UPG.KMHX.WS.A.0001.220121T0000Z-220122T1700Z/
/O.NEW.KMHX.WS.W.0001.220121T0500Z-220122T1200Z/
Martin-Pitt-Washington-Tyrrell-Greene-
Including the cities of Williamston, Robersonville, Oak City,
Jamesville, Greenville, Bethel, Farmville, Grifton, Grimesland,
Plymouth, Roper, Creswell, Columbia, Gum Neck, Snow Hill,
Hookerton, and Walstonburg
445 AM EST Thu Jan 20 2022

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM
EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet
accumulations of 3 to 5 inches and ice accumulations of around
one tenth of an inch.

* WHERE...Martin, Pitt, Washington, Tyrrell and Greene Counties.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to 7 AM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous
conditions will impact the morning and evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency.

The latest road conditions for North Carolina can be found online
at DriveNC.gov.
Click to expand...
Roads could end up worse thus storm than some.others. the rain with the front and the flash freeze by Friday morning will leave some nice black ice. Cover that with sleet and snow and it's a driving nightmare
 
WeatherNC said:
31hrs in duration, Coast is under a Ice Storm Warning for 1/4-1/2”

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
445 AM EST Thu Jan 20 2022

NCZ029-044>046-079-202145-
/O.UPG.KMHX.WS.A.0001.220121T0000Z-220122T1700Z/
/O.NEW.KMHX.WS.W.0001.220121T0500Z-220122T1200Z/
Martin-Pitt-Washington-Tyrrell-Greene-
Including the cities of Williamston, Robersonville, Oak City,
Jamesville, Greenville, Bethel, Farmville, Grifton, Grimesland,
Plymouth, Roper, Creswell, Columbia, Gum Neck, Snow Hill,
Hookerton, and Walstonburg
445 AM EST Thu Jan 20 2022

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM
EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet
accumulations of 3 to 5 inches and ice accumulations of around
one tenth of an inch.

* WHERE...Martin, Pitt, Washington, Tyrrell and Greene Counties.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to 7 AM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous
conditions will impact the morning and evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency.

The latest road conditions for North Carolina can be found online
at DriveNC.gov.
Click to expand...

Most models have big lull from around dawn to dusk tomorrow though.....if the GFS is right last run then MHX will realize their 3-5" call for us with the best 3-4 hrs being 1-5 am Sat morning....so still almost 36 hrs out feels like this storm is never gonna get here lol
 
Well it’s been fun. I tried to ride it out as long as possible, but I’m conceding to a non-event in west-central GA. I know it died yesterday but looks like the autopsy confirmed it today. Y’all have fun in the Carolinas.
 
This may be banter and may be deleted, but I just wanted to thank all of you for sharing y’all’s insight to this storm. I know a lot of us may not get what we want but all your posts and insights have been amazing these last couple of days. Good luck to everyone with this storm in eastern nc va and sc


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
snowlover91 said:
How did the 6z euro finish? Improvements in precip?
Click to expand...
Slight improvement and the big takeaway is it stopped any eastward shift, 0z and 06z below, definite shift west (again slight but still positive)

edit: shift west but also lighter amounts in some locations

1642971600-8WXkdRlTZoA.png

1642971600-u9udV5mDN8E.png
 
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