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Wintry 1/20 - 1/23 Winter Storm

metwannabe said:
I always remember Shane saying over the years that wile we hate the SER, you also need a little ridge to keep winter storms from missing altogether. Perfect example right here
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Just need this to tilt a tad bit more and give us 4-6 more hrs during peak conditions upstairs.....that always seem to be our problem when we finally get everything lined up to dump we get 2-3 hrs of it and then its over....its why its so hard to get events over 4-6" around here lol....that back end will be haunting us tomorrow night as it seems to move in way faster than it should lol....
 
metwannabe said:
Slight improvement and the big takeaway is it stopped any eastward shift, 0z and 06z below, definite shift west (again slight but still positive)

edit: shift west but also lighter amounts in some locations

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1642971600-u9udV5mDN8E.png
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Very nice.
 
ajr said:
Makes me laugh a little bit about how complicated it is to forecast winter weather in the SE. Hats off to those who try!
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His maps are indeed extra. But I respect it. If I had to wager, I thought his totals actually might have been a little lower in the Triangle area. 11th hour is approaching.
 
I'm not a huge believer in wait until the wave gets sampled I think it falls into weenie lore but I would certainly feel better if we had all pieces over the US at the moment for the 12z runs. It's such a small change required to make a relative large change at the sfc it bothers me with this one. I really don't trust a meso model ATM if they are blowing it at 500mb the sfc features are pretty irrelevant
 
SD said:
I'm not a huge believer in wait until the wave gets sampled I think it falls into weenie lore but I would certainly feel better if we had all pieces over the US at the moment for the 12z runs. It's such a small change required to make a relative large change at the sfc it bothers me with this one. I really don't trust a meso model ATM if they are blowing it at 500mb the sfc features are pretty irrelevant
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Where the hell is the wave at?! This thing is go time for tomorrow lmao
 
GM, I’ve been watching radar for my area they have been calling for rain to start at 5 am and still nothing. Will a delay increase the chance of wintry precipitation since it is starting later? Or maybe I have that invisible tent over me. Lol
 
metwannabe said:
I always remember Shane saying over the years that while we hate the SER, you also need a little ridge to keep winter storms from missing altogether. Perfect example right here
Click to expand...

Yeap it's a dance with the devil for sure.


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SD said:
I'm not a huge believer in wait until the wave gets sampled I think it falls into weenie lore but I would certainly feel better if we had all pieces over the US at the moment for the 12z runs. It's such a small change required to make a relative large change at the sfc it bothers me with this one. I really don't trust a meso model ATM if they are blowing it at 500mb the sfc features are pretty irrelevant
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This one is really on the edge of a knife. I agree, I think it matters somewhat in this instance. I also think it matters in the 2-5 day time frame too, depending on the orientation and nature of the general 500 mb longwave pattern. I think it plays a significant role in why we often anecdotally recognize storms "disappearing" during that window and reappearing as we get closer. But for the most part, it's overused and just randomly tossed out as if it's universally applicable in every situation, like so many other things.
 
Rain Cold said:
This one is really on the edge of a knife. I agree, I think it matters somewhat in this instance. I also think it matters in the 2-5 day time frame too, depending on the orientation and nature of the general 500 mb longwave pattern. I think it plays a significant role in why we often anecdotally recognize storms "disappearing" during that window and reappearing as we get closer. But for the most part, it's overused and just randomly tossed out as if it's universally applicable in every situation, like so many other things.
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Yeap huge list that gets used on every storm.


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SD said:
I'm not a huge believer in wait until the wave gets sampled I think it falls into weenie lore but I would certainly feel better if we had all pieces over the US at the moment for the 12z runs. It's such a small change required to make a relative large change at the sfc it bothers me with this one. I really don't trust a meso model ATM if they are blowing it at 500mb the sfc features are pretty irrelevant
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That s/w you've been mentioning, I guess the 3rd piece of the puzzle, that trails and could sharpen our wave a little more is the one that hasn't been sampled yet correct? Would stronger be better for that one?
 
I should probably wait until the NAM runs to make an actual call but unless the NAM makes a staggering reversal I doubt it'll matter.

Best case scenario for areas along I-77 and immediately eastward are flurries to maybe an inch once to get towards FAY-RDU. Then the chances for more significant snow accumulations run from just west of I-95 to around US-17, after that the chances of snow lowers but the chances of ice rises.
 
metwannabe said:
That s/w you've been mentioning, I guess the 3rd piece of the puzzle, that trails and could sharpen our wave a little more is the one that hasn't been sampled yet correct? Would stronger be better for that one?
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Yeah stronger would tilt it a bit quicker and it is the last piece of the puzzle. Very little changes in the southern vort and the northern one, but that trailing piece is what slows and sharpens the northern vort up so it will be huge.
 
metwannabe said:
That s/w you've been mentioning, I guess the 3rd piece of the puzzle, that trails and could sharpen our wave a little more is the one that hasn't been sampled yet correct? Would stronger be better for that one?
Click to expand...
Yeah the more energy you can drop into the base/back of the current trough the more you can attempt to slow it down, dig it, tilt it. That means downstream a more amplified divergent jet, higher coastal heights, more waa/fgen/isentropic lift aloft.
 
I think the best the Triad is going to get comes with the frontal passage later today. As moisture from the weak wave overrides the front, some light snow will break out. A heavy dusting to maybe an 1" is all I expect. Anything tomorrow night will be a bonus and a surprise.
 
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