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Wintry 1/20 - 1/23 Winter Storm

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packfan98 said:
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Lol… that’s basically back to the same look that was showing yesterday morning before the wheels fell off. Verbatim, that warning criteria snowfall for CLT metro east of 77 and 85 then up along and to the east of I-85 with advisory level west back into the foothills.
 
Chazwin said:
Lol… that’s basically back to the same look that was showing yesterday morning before the wheels fell off. Verbatim, that warning criteria snowfall for CLT metro east of 77 and 85 then up along and to the east of I-85 with advisory level west back into the foothills.
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The RGEM has also shown a similar solution the last two runs.
 
KyloG said:
One thing I hadn't noticed is the past 4 runs the snow has backed west. CLT is right on the hip of 3-4".
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Honestly, I'd have to see a few more runs to think that will happen. Still skeptical we get that much in the Triangle but confidence is increasing and things certainly looking better.
 
Loganelliott99 said:
This may be me being a weenie. But maybe the RDPS detects the Northwest part of the storm better precip wise.


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It did about as well as the HRRR over the weekend in picking up the strong FGEN forcing that set up. Hopefully it’s leading the way here
 
Chazwin said:
Lol… that’s basically back to the same look that was showing yesterday morning before the wheels fell off. Verbatim, that warning criteria snowfall for CLT metro east of 77 and 85 then up along and to the east of I-85 with advisory level west back into the foothills.
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superjames1992 said:
The RGEM has also shown a similar solution the last two runs.
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Yeah, it's so tricky. If the system is robust enough and the precip is there, the NW cutoff will be brutal, especially if it involves the big cities along the I-85 corridor. Looks like every 15 miles there's a difference of half an inch. I'm sure there will be 15-30 mile shifts in the next cycles of model suites. It's interesting at least.
 
So what are the social media mets saying about these shifts this morning? Not a big social media twittery dude
 
iGRXY said:
The mets around here are showing in house models that have snow pretty far back west even to the SC/GA border so it does make it interesting with these considerable shifts to the west.
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I remember someone yesterday showed what is considered the model that those in house models are coming from and it was continuing to show a lot of precip well back to the west then as well even while every other model was drastically cutting back moisture. What struck me odd about it is that those models tend to have a very noticeable dry bias to them… remember in January 2014 how ATL area mets were using them on screen to downplay the snow threat from that storm even though every other model was beginning to put down a couple inches of snow with temperatures in the low 20s
 
griteater said:
Personally, I favor a broader precip shield back to the west like the RDPS is showing, with a good storm in Raleigh. Would be nice to get the Columbia area some snow...awfully tough down there

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RGEM would be about 15 hours of snow. That's hard to believe, but it is within the realm of possibility. I would liked to have seen amounts tick up, but they're almost the same and still pretty far on the high end of the rest of the guidance.
 
griteater said:
Personally, I favor a broader precip shield back to the west like the RDPS is showing, with a good storm in Raleigh. Would be nice to get the Columbia area some snow...awfully tough down there

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With more forcing and FGEN it definitely does make sense to see the precip shield quite a bit further west.
 
Rain Cold said:
RGEM would be about 15 hours of snow. That's hard to believe, but it is within the realm of possibility. I would liked to have seen amounts tick up, but they're almost the same and still pretty far on the high end of the rest of the guidance.
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Seems to have snow from 10am tomorrow thru 3am Saturday in the Triangle. (i think). That's impressive.
 
KyloG said:
ICON held...been consistent past few runs

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A lot of people disregard the ICON but for this storm thus far it has probably been the most consistent and steady of all the models.
With the back and forth that some of the other models have shown it would be a coup if it would verify with this system.
 
weather bubba said:
A lot of people disregard the ICON but for this storm thus far it has probably been the most consistent and steady of all the models.
With the back and forth that some of the other models have shown it would be a coup if it would verify with this system.
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The ICON was the first model to start shift back west yesterday on the 18z runs. I stand by what I said then… if it’s the model to start the trend that works to give me a decent snow, I will take back all the bad things I said and never bad mouth it again… lol
 
Would appear after a little mayhem yesterday some semblance of agreement is starting to be reached. Continued improvement at 300 and 500mb will only increase totals and westward extent, within reason of course. Heaviest amounts near the tidewater and NE NC, best chance for >6”, 3-5 seems likely for the Coastal Plain back towards Raleigh and maybe even down to Florence. Still some time though.
 
Broken024 said:
Talk to me. Tell me something.
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What’s funny is that Brad P just released a new video before the 12z models started coming in. He talked about how much dryer things had trended. This of course after he did the some thing yesterday. He might want to start waiting to do his video till after the model runs
 
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