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Wintry 1/20 - 1/23 Winter Storm

I hope I don't regret this statement later but one thing I like seeing is the slp isn't really coming too far W/NW, it's more the precip is expanding further W/NW, which hopefully will prevent too much WAA (the warm nose) from coming too far inland.
 
Long stretch of black ice concerns in Charlotte (for many) with todays rain and any precip going forward. Temps fail to recover.
 
metwannabe said:
I hope I don't regret this statement later but one thing I like seeing is the slp isn't really coming too far W/NW, it's more the precip is expanding further W/NW, which hopefully will prevent too much WAA (the warm nose) from coming too far inland.
Click to expand...
I don’t know that it’s really a matter of it not coming more WNW or more a matter of the low not quickly strengthening. The low can still move closer to the coastline but if it’s not getting wound up to quickly, it won’t drive the warm nose far to the west and north
 
UKMET - Note 10-1 ratios only. NW side should be higher.
sn10_acc.us_ma.png
 
Here are soundings from the RDPS and GFS for Raleigh at 10pm Friday. Both show snow and 24 degrees (very rare)

I agree with the idea that snow ratios will be good...some thoughts:

1. The main impetus for the storm is the wave in the northern stream (polar jet) which is bringing cold air with it...as opposed to a warm and juiced up system approaching from the southern stream / gulf.

2. The soundings show a nice cold profile, not approaching freezing aloft or at the surface, more typical of snowstorms that happen well north of us

3. No super heavy winds associated with a strong cyclone to fracture dendrite snowflakes

I like the idea of snow ratios in the 15:1 to 20:1 range in Raleigh.....closer to 20:1 where you get into a good snow band with dendrites being efficiently produced....otherwise closer to 15:1


7m9qbAs.png


yUhkpkT.png
 
I mean i dont want to say it to early but....
Christian T Murray said:
As quickly as this went downhill, it can come back uphill just as quick. At least wait till op runs come out before discrediting the potentional of this storm. Precipitation shield will shift some west. East of raleigh and north of greenville, nc will still see the biggest impacts in my opinion.
Click to expand...
 
griteater said:
Here are soundings from the RDPS and GFS for Raleigh at 10pm Friday. Both show snow and 24 degrees (very rare)

I agree with the idea that snow ratios will be good...some thoughts:

1. The main impetus for the storm is the wave in the northern stream (polar jet) which is bringing cold air with it...as opposed to a warm and juiced up system approaching from the southern stream / gulf.

2. The soundings show a nice cold profile, not approaching freezing aloft or at the surface, more typical of snowstorms that happen well north of us

3. No super heavy winds associated with a strong cyclone to fracture dendrite snowflakes

I like the idea of snow ratios in the 15:1 to 20:1 range in Raleigh.....closer to 20:1 where you get into a good snow band with dendrites being efficiently produced....otherwise closer to 15:1


7m9qbAs.png


yUhkpkT.png
Click to expand...
I've expected some silly ratios for the last few days. I just need the QPF
 
griteater said:
Here are soundings from the RDPS and GFS for Raleigh at 10pm Friday. Both show snow and 24 degrees (very rare)

I agree with the idea that snow ratios will be good...some thoughts:

1. The main impetus for the storm is the wave in the northern stream (polar jet) which is bringing cold air with it...as opposed to a warm and juiced up system approaching from the southern stream / gulf.

2. The soundings show a nice cold profile, not approaching freezing aloft or at the surface, more typical of snowstorms that happen well north of us

3. No super heavy winds associated with a strong cyclone to fracture dendrite snowflakes

I like the idea of snow ratios in the 15:1 to 20:1 range in Raleigh.....closer to 20:1 where you get into a good snow band with dendrites being efficiently produced....otherwise closer to 15:1


7m9qbAs.png


yUhkpkT.png
Click to expand...
Thanks for your thoughts on this. It does seem like a situation where ratios should be very good, I’ve just been burnt by that in the past, so I’m afraid to assume more than 10:1, haha. This could make a big difference for the Triangle and areas on the western side as even a “measly” 0.3” of liquid could translate into 4-5” of snow if ratios are 15:1. Definitely something that could lead to an outperformance.
 
griteater said:
Here are soundings from the RDPS and GFS for Raleigh at 10pm Friday. Both show snow and 24 degrees (very rare)

I agree with the idea that snow ratios will be good...some thoughts:

1. The main impetus for the storm is the wave in the northern stream (polar jet) which is bringing cold air with it...as opposed to a warm and juiced up system approaching from the southern stream / gulf.

2. The soundings show a nice cold profile, not approaching freezing aloft or at the surface, more typical of snowstorms that happen well north of us

3. No super heavy winds associated with a strong cyclone to fracture dendrite snowflakes

I like the idea of snow ratios in the 15:1 to 20:1 range in Raleigh.....closer to 20:1 where you get into a good snow band with dendrites being efficiently produced....otherwise closer to 15:1


7m9qbAs.png


yUhkpkT.png
Click to expand...
For a more questionable area back west (CLT), those RGEM soundings are a thing of beauty 73966F09-ED89-4884-8636-B40344D9D27F.pngDA113B16-986E-4B70-869A-5190AC3FBFE7.png
 
JMA drops 0.25" of QPF this way with the 2nd wave with with 850s ranging -3 to -6C and surface temps likely in the 20's. That's 2.5" on 10:1 but with the column that cold you best believe it would likely be closer to 15:1 at least. Obviously not taking the JMA serious but these westward shifts are really honking at even back this way getting into some snow.
 
KyloG said:
HRRR for the overnight....well starting at roughly 9-10pm in Raleigh. HRRR did great for last Sunday but it's burnt me in the past when relying on it.

View attachment 108777View attachment 108778
Click to expand...
Yeah Im not really trusting this anafront is been busting back up north due to warmer temps and a further north baroclinic zone, that might be important tomorrow
 
I wonder what RAH means about this:

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
As of 925 AM Thursday...

No major changes this morning. The latest surface analysis shows the
cold front just pushing into the NC mountains, with mostly light
rain spreading NE into (and blossoming over) the NC Piedmont. This
trend should persist with the mostly solid rain band moving past the
Hwy 1 corridor by noon and easing slowly E, reaching our eastern
counties by sunset. The cold/dense air mass will have trouble
breaching the higher terrain but will instead pour through the
shallower terrain of the central Appalachians and spill into central
NC from the N starting late this afternoon. RAP partial thicknesses
suggest that the changeover to rain/snow will occur over the N
Piedmont around 19z-21z (give or take an hour), with steady column
cooling taking place through the evening, so current p-type trends
still look good. Expect late-morning to early-afternoon highs from
the lower 40s (meaning mostly steady temps in our NW this morning)
ranging to around 60 in our far SE (where precip will hold off until
late today). Taking a peek ahead to tonight through Fri night, many
of the 06z model runs have shifted precip E and SE of the Triad and
made it overall a bit lighter/patchier, although the 06z GFS still
draws considerable precip back W over all of central NC late Fri
through Fri night, and most ECMWF ensemble members depict at least a
couple of inches of snow at RDU. Stay tuned. -GIH
 
KyloG said:
HRRR for the overnight....well starting at roughly 9-10pm in Raleigh. HRRR did great for last Sunday but it's burnt me in the past when relying on it.

View attachment 108777View attachment 108778
Click to expand...
A lot of the models are starting to "beef up" amounts with the actual front tonight, that's something different and I'm not sold on it just yet but there does appear to be some potential with it. I think roads will be a mess in morning regardless of amounts anyway then it will be nerve-racking watching the radar all day to see if/when precip starts to build back west lol
 
FallsLake said:
I wonder what RAH means about this:

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
As of 925 AM Thursday...

No major changes this morning. The latest surface analysis shows the
cold front just pushing into the NC mountains, with mostly light
rain spreading NE into (and blossoming over) the NC Piedmont. This
trend should persist with the mostly solid rain band moving past the
Hwy 1 corridor by noon and easing slowly E, reaching our eastern
counties by sunset. The cold/dense air mass will have trouble
breaching the higher terrain but will instead pour through the
shallower terrain of the central Appalachians and spill into central
NC from the N starting late this afternoon. RAP partial thicknesses
suggest that the changeover to rain/snow will occur over the N
Piedmont around 19z-21z (give or take an hour), with steady column
cooling taking place through the evening, so current p-type trends
still look good. Expect late-morning to early-afternoon highs from
the lower 40s (meaning mostly steady temps in our NW this morning)
ranging to around 60 in our far SE (where precip will hold off until
late today). Taking a peek ahead to tonight through Fri night, many
of the 06z model runs have shifted precip E and SE of the Triad and
made it overall a bit lighter/patchier, although the 06z GFS still
draws considerable precip back W over all of central NC late Fri
through Fri night, and most ECMWF ensemble members depict at least a
couple of inches of snow at RDU. Stay tuned. -GIH
Click to expand...
I believe this came before the most recent models.
 
FallsLake said:
I wonder what RAH means about this:

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
As of 925 AM Thursday...

No major changes this morning. The latest surface analysis shows the
cold front just pushing into the NC mountains, with mostly light
rain spreading NE into (and blossoming over) the NC Piedmont. This
trend should persist with the mostly solid rain band moving past the
Hwy 1 corridor by noon and easing slowly E, reaching our eastern
counties by sunset. The cold/dense air mass will have trouble
breaching the higher terrain but will instead pour through the
shallower terrain of the central Appalachians and spill into central
NC from the N starting late this afternoon. RAP partial thicknesses
suggest that the changeover to rain/snow will occur over the N
Piedmont around 19z-21z (give or take an hour), with steady column
cooling taking place through the evening, so current p-type trends
still look good. Expect late-morning to early-afternoon highs from
the lower 40s (meaning mostly steady temps in our NW this morning)
ranging to around 60 in our far SE (where precip will hold off until
late today). Taking a peek ahead to tonight through Fri night, many
of the 06z model runs have shifted precip E and SE of the Triad and
made it overall a bit lighter/patchier, although the 06z GFS still
draws considerable precip back W over all of central NC late Fri
through Fri night, and most ECMWF ensemble members depict at least a
couple of inches of snow at RDU. Stay tuned. -GIH
Click to expand...
Even though it says updated at 9:25, it’s still early morning discussion… before the 6z models started coming in
 
Them ratios are yummy just need more QPF....that's a solid 8 straight hrs of .5" rates at PGV.

220121/2300Z 35 02011KT 26.7F SNOW 15:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.026 14:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.03 100| 0| 0
220122/0000Z 36 02012KT 26.3F SNOW 15:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.027 14:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.06 100| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
220122/0100Z 37 01012KT 26.0F SNOW 16:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.032 15:1| 1.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.09 100| 0| 0
220122/0200Z 38 36012KT 25.4F SNOW 10:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.044 13:1| 1.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.14 100| 0| 0
220122/0300Z 39 36012KT 24.9F SNOW 17:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.036 14:1| 2.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.17 100| 0| 0
220122/0400Z 40 36012KT 24.5F SNOW 12:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.046 14:1| 3.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.22 100| 0| 0
220122/0500Z 41 36011KT 24.3F SNOW 11:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.054 13:1| 3.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.27 100| 0| 0
220122/0600Z 42 36011KT 24.2F SNOW 10:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.060 12:1| 4.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.33 100| 0| 0
 
700mb moisture continuing to look good on recent modeling like last night's 00z Euro for a lot of areas... something to watch.... it was quite dry yesterday
 
I have 2 different forecasts going for my area it’s going to and not going to on the winter precipitation lol. I’m sticking with you guys. Throw in something for me once in awhile..Keep up the excellent work guys. I hoping for a sneaky
 
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