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Wintry 1/20 - 1/23 Winter Storm

iGRXY said:
This is quickly getting more interesting by the run for us further west.
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Yeah… all that’s missing is the development of a mesolow between Columbia and GSP to give forecasters a little “fly in the ointment”… lol. Folks who wave been reading discussions from GSP since or before January 2003 will understand that reference
 
Chazwin said:
Yeah… all that’s missing is the development of a mesolow between Columbia and GSP to give forecasters a little “fly in the ointment”… lol. Folks who wave been reading discussions from GSP since or before January 2003 will understand that reference
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What a dadgum storm, man. I dont know if anyone remembers acweather but he was one of the first who thought things could go boom that night. GSP went with 2-4" and we got almost 9" of powder.
 
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Liking this run. Northern Stream is digging SW and the southern stream is pulling in closer
 
BullCityWx said:
What a dadgum storm, man. I dont know if anyone remembers acweather but he was one of the first who thought things could go boom that night. GSP went with 2-4" and we got almost 9" of powder.
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In CLT, Brad P’s predecessor Terri Bennett was the first one to mention what could happen on TV… on the evening news she called for 2-4” while everyone else was saying around an inch with more the further east. By 11pm as the snow was first moving in, everyone could look at the radar and see that we were about to get smoked. I remember getting woke up a few hours after that by very loud thunder
 
That was odd… everything about that run at H5 said the surface should be a vast improvement from 6z, yet the surface looks worse. I can’t explain that one
 
packfan98 said:
The energy looked stronger, but stayed positively tilted too long I think.
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As soon as everything else started pulling us back in the Euro says not so fast lol. Still looked decent for eastern sections and I thought the H5 was an improvement so I think we're still in a good spot
 
Pretty amazing. We went from a really big storm a few days ago to its going to be mostly rain to a good snow with temps in the mid 20's.
 
Cold front through NW Triad as my temp are starting to drop with a light NNW wind. Light rain at the moment but a slow changeover could occur by evening. Still watching the models and their trends. Not sure we'll know what's going to happen until it happens.
 
Cary_Snow95 said:
The surface didn't reflect it but I am very okay with that run at H5. Northern stream tugging down and the southern stream was beginning to respond. I'd roll the dice with that look verbatim
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Yeah decent divergent jet and 700mb moisture. Its trying really hard to dry in the 850 layer and was a little more + tilt with the trough. Certainly plausible something drier like the euro verifies given how touchy the setup is and how close we are to the boom bust line
 
Feeling better for here for Saturday afternoon and evening as regards any threat for ZR then as the GFS suite has reversed its prior northward trend of the subsequent shortwave and now is keeping any precip safely away. Regardless, there’s still a possibility of some ZR here Fri night. The good news is that all indications are that it would be light if it occurs. With that in mind, I’m no longer concerned about anything bad (generator not needed) and wouldn’t mind seeing some due to its rarity.
 
WxGSO said:
Cold front through NW Triad as my temp are starting to drop with a light NNW wind. Light rain at the moment but a slow changeover could occur by evening. Still watching the models and their trends. Not sure we'll know what's going to happen until it happens.
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My mind tells me to not get my hopes up about tonight but it also looks like an outlier for cold filtering in with precip
 
It's a little disconcerting that the Euro didn't really jump onboard and turn out better than prior runs. I think it's handled this whole event poorly, but it's still a good model, and if I had the choice of it or the Canadian trending better, it would certainly be the Euro.
 
Rain Cold said:
It's a little disconcerting that the Euro didn't really jump onboard and turn out better than prior runs. I think it's handled this whole event poorly, but it's still a good model, and if I had the choice of it or the Canadian trending better, it would certainly be the Euro.
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I have to agree, and I am not trying to be negative, but that's how it normally starts. One model does it, and the rest slowly follow like a chain reaction. It also seems like this Winter, we have 12 hours of good trends, then 12 hours of bad.
 
Rain Cold said:
It's a little disconcerting that the Euro didn't really jump onboard and turn out better than prior runs. I think it's handled this whole event poorly, but it's still a good model, and if I had the choice of it or the Canadian trending better, it would certainly be the Euro.
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I agree completely! I talk a lot of smack about the Euro and how it's not near the model it used to be but truth be told, it's still one of the models I really want showing the storm in my back yard.
 
Robert West said:
I have to agree, and I am not trying to be negative, but that's how it normally starts. One model does it, and the rest slowly follow like a chain reaction. It also seems like this Winter, we have 12 hours of good trends, then 12 hours of bad.
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It's a single operational run of a global model less than 30 hours out. It's like yesterday when the 18z NAM went out to sea and people were cancelling the event.

Forecasting is not using 1 model. It is looking at multiple models over a span of days and objectively seeking consistencies and formulating a guess. 1 Euro op run doesnt change the big picture of this event at all.
 
Rain Cold said:
It's a little disconcerting that the Euro didn't really jump onboard and turn out better than prior runs. I think it's handled this whole event poorly, but it's still a good model, and if I had the choice of it or the Canadian trending better, it would certainly be the Euro.
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That was a downer, I thought for sure it was going to tick west some. It hasn't been great but it's still "the best" model we have.
 
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