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Wintry 1/20 - 1/23 Winter Storm

Chazwin said:
The thing is even though there was less phasing on the Euro, the GFS is still trending more NW with the low and the precip and that is gaining support on the GEFS. More than likely we’re probably headed towards a blend of the Euro/GFS/CMC where there is still plenty of moisture back here to the west from overrunning to put down a decent snow with temperatures in the 20s, but the heaviest QPF is east of Hwy 1 where things are aided by the phase. The big question whether or the WAR plays nice and stays backed off to keep the warm nose at bay more
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I still think this is headed that way.....with good deep cold we dont need tons of QPF to get big totals, and the further west you go the better the ratios are anyways, .30 QPF is still 3-6" back west....similar to Jan 3 2002, though that bullseye ends up a little further SE this time :) maybe RDU down to Goldsboro then NE into the tidewaters....Metwannbe is sitting pretty I think.

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I still think when its all said and done the main freezing rain issue will be Hwy 17ish east, and while the central and northern coastal plains might have to deal with pingers mixing in I will gladly take that over some of the freezing rain totals the Euro is giving me right now.
 
Hope this isn’t a whamby post but what is needed for areas west into AL to get back into the game with this? Or is it too late for any major changes like that?
 
We're in a somewhat okay look with the NAM. I think that if it can phase faster, then the wave can move east more quickly with lower heights.
 
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