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Wintry 1/20 - 1/23 Winter Storm

Trend here on HRRR. Interesting thing to see is whether the GFS/RDPS trend east with 18z runs

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Chazwin said:
Can you pull up any soundings… I’m away from my computer and can’t… all I can think of is that the moisture just isn’t deep enough
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We’re getting real close to a RGEM solution, the rgem pulls a band out the foothills and strengthens it, hrrr is maybe trying to pickup on that EDD84835-89F7-480D-B0E9-80062F03F564.pngF243066B-52AD-4848-A680-92DEFE18C2ED.png
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
We’re getting real close to a RGEM solution, the rgem pulls a band out the foothills and strengthens it, hrrr is maybe trying to pickup on that View attachment 108824View attachment 108825
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Yeah, that looks very good… you certainly don’t expect to not see precipitation falling with a look like that… when this system is over, some meteorologist or student is gonna have a great case study to do on which models performed the best why some absolutely struggled
 
griteater said:
Trend here on HRRR. Interesting thing to see is whether the GFS/RDPS trend east with 18z runs
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If GFS and RDPS move east, then we're likely looking at the GFS/RDPS camp and the HRRR/NAM/Euro/UKMet camp meeting in the middle. If the GFS and RDPS stay west or move west, the lookey here / lookey here factor increases
 
The 18z NAM is initializing with more precip with this frontal passage and showing less of a cold push compared to 12z, recognizing the reality on the ground. We’ll see if that translates into anything meaningful.
 
Chazwin said:
Looking at observations for the Piedmont, the winds have now turned out of the north after being mainly w and NW all day… we should start to see some fairly steady temperatures drops going forward
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I noticed the Temps dropped 2° to 44 in the past hour. I'm in the Indian Trail area
 
One thing to factor into your calculus is that there’s likely a reason the nam is held back to 18 hours every time it is run except for 4 times a day. I don’t think that being able to pick up on tiny synoptic trends that have major downstream implications is it’s wheelhouse.
 
superjames1992 said:
The 18z NAM is initializing with more precip with this frontal passage and showing less of a cold push compared to 12z, recognizing the reality on the ground. We’ll see if that translates into anything meaningful.
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The 850mb 0C line passes through Durham shortly before 7pm and through Raleigh at 8pm. That's pretty consistent with the changeover timing on the HRRR.
 
ILMRoss said:
Sorry to muddy the pbp but to me NAM looks better thru 20. Better tilt and I think there’s a little more phasing. Tune in to see who wins the “who can interpret the 20 mile nudges on a model thru hr 20 the best” contest
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Yeah, I was thinking the same, but I’m terrible at predicting where this stuff is going to go. ?‍♂️
 
ILMRoss said:
Sorry to muddy the pbp but to me NAM looks better thru 20. Better tilt and I think there’s a little more phasing. Tune in to see who wins the “who can interpret the 20 mile nudges on a model thru hr 20 the best” contest
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SW looks better with more interaction but the secondary vort coming down to slow down the N/S looks much weaker.
 
Surface looks better to me at hr 30. Precip is breaking out a bit further west in the Carolinas compared to 12z. A bit warmer. Isobars from the surface low a bit closer to the coast.

Mind you I’m splitting hairs and I might also be wrong. ?
 
Yeah, definitely looking healthier at hr 33. Snow breaking out from RDU to CAE and nudging towards CLT a bit. I suspect this should be a big run from PGV up to ORF.

Still ends up being bone-dry up here in Durham, haha.
 
Ok this a head scratcher… the H5 looked better on both the HRRR and the Euro, but the surface reflection looks worse… the H5 looks worse on the NAM, but the surface reflection looks better… I guess this just truly going to come down to now casting
 
CAE expands Winter Weather Advisory into the CSRA:

National Weather Service Columbia SC
303 PM EST Thu Jan 20 2022
Aiken-Barnwell-Bamberg-

Including the cities of Aiken, North Augusta, Barnwell,
Williston, Blackville, Bamberg, and Denmark
303 PM EST Thu Jan 20 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 7 AM EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected Friday afternoon through
Friday night. Total snow accumulations of up to one inch and ice
accumulations of a few hundredths of an inch.

* WHERE...Aiken, Barnwell and Bamberg Counties.

* WHEN...From 1 PM Friday to 7 AM EST Saturday.
 
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