iGRXY
Member
It does need to phase just a little bit earlier but it took a massive step towards the EURO with more phasing.
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Wintry 1/20 - 1/23 Winter Storm
- Thread starter packfan98
- Start date
EastAtlwx
Meteorologist
Hey, How do I access this?
DM me if necessary..
Webber is on board:
Showmeyourtds
Member
GA 400 warm nose, anyone? Worth noting that there's still a snow sounding here @ 33.74, -84.31
NAM is very close to a super mess, but the front gets hung up a bit coming through GA (Shocking**) and the wedge coming is late just enough that rainy 33-35 degree here. Either way, its close and thats all I ask for right now.
Yes, NAM doesn't really give a good push for the front....That is why I have been saying all along that we need to make sure the front has a good push south. **1st**
Dewpoint Dan
Member
What's causing the front not to push south ?
Chattownsnow
Member
People sometimes confuse the accumulated precipitation output with comparing what is being seen on radar as well I think. A lot of times what is being shown on radar isn’t reaching the ground, and/or not heavy enough to reach the .10 inch threshold to show accumulation on the output. comparing simulated reflectivity with the real time radar would be closer to reality. That’s not to say the precip shield doesn’t verify farther north because it usually does. Just not to the extent that it sometimes seems
Yes, it usually is. I live in the normal warm bubble. In this depiction, the wedge is building in stronger and faster than usual. That warm spot would fill in the next frame surely all else being equal.
EDIT: It also is downsloping given the modeled wind direction. By this frame, the surface flow has turned due north rather than the typical ene wind from CAD.
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The 500mb flow at that point is not going to allow for much more of a push southward.
Sheesh we were at 2 inches of sleet here in Raleigh .. before the big hit .. this could be an absolute mess
Tarheelwx
Member
Where is Webb getting a Miller B from? Isn’t this just a hung up front with a low that develops and ride up the coast?
TW
TW
Because it has mixing. Miller A would create the assumption it is all snow.
cyclogent
Member
slow and steady wins the race - that moisture is coming north
yall have a better push from the wedge.
griteater
Member
Yeah, the NAM is Miller A. You can still get a lot of mixed precip types in a Miller A with CAD, depending on the setup. Miller B is a surface low tracking into N Bama / E TN (or NW of there), then reforming along the coast. Miller A / Miller B is very surface low track centric
Hypsometric
Member
12z ICON just went boom.
We are starting to get a general footprint, from the upstate-sw Piedmont thru central NC and NE NC
griteater
Member
12z RDPS is less amped with the wave compared to 06z run