Wintry 1/20 - 1/23 Winter Storm

[DopplerWx]

icon very similar to the cmc and nam and euro.

 

[Chattownsnow]

slow and steady wins the race - that moisture is coming north

View attachment 107772

I want to believe but it seems to me ensemble support is waning for our general area. Typically I would look at this and be licking my chops at this stage of modeling. However things appear to be trending more towards our east at this time. Carolina’s gonna get smashed again it appears. If Nooga somehow escapes this whole pattern unscathed I’ll be disappointed, but not surprised lol

 

[Iceagewhereartthou]

Yep NW Trend is evident, just how far NW it goes is still a guess. There gonna be a lot more people in the game for snow time this one is done. Even NE Ga gonna see some snow

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It's a precarious dance. I definitely want to see the QPF come about 100 miles further west to get the upstate and N GA in on this one, but I don't want it to to skip areas further south who are due at the same time. A blend of last nights Euro and UKMET would be good for a lot folks.

 

[BullCityWx]

If I was along a line from Columbia all the way to Myrtle Beach, I'd be prepping for a hellacious ice storm and pray that sleet or plain rain saves the day.

 

[Cary_Snow95]

Icon going for it

 

[Metwannabe]

GA 400 warm nose, anyone? Worth noting that there's still a snow sounding here @ 33.74, -84.31View attachment 107771

This is a warm "tongue" "finger", whatever you want to call it at the surface, it's not the warm nose that often gets discussed (that is in the mid levels) just don't want to confuse anyone, especially the newest of members still trying to learn.

 

[Metwannabe]

One liners, imby constant questions, low effort post are going to get deleted especially as traffic picks up. Please as has been requested numerous times utilize the whamby/banter thread for that stuff.

 

[cyclogent]

this westward shift sure seems familiar - we keep doing it every single storm lol

 

[Philconnors]

This almost reminds me of the 1/28/14 storm. Models showed exactly what this is showing precip shield ended up well north into very cold/dry air as we all remember. The setup looks similar at face value. Snow started over south alabama and expanded north.

 

[Ollie Williams]

12z RDPS is less amped with the wave compared to 06z run

Even so, the 850 line is much further south from a stronger cold push. It looks more like the Ukmet!

 

[Gopack42]

Since I just moved to live on the beach near Morehead City, NC (Emerald Isle to be specific), I'm not used to following weather directly on the coast. How does the ocean affect precip types in a more micro environment? If you're, say, 15 miles inland, does that give you better chance to see frozen precip vs living on the beach? What's the thoughts on getting frozen precip directly on the coast in SE NC? Thanks for any input!

 

[weatherfide]

This is a warm "tongue" "finger", whatever you want to call it at the surface, it's not the warm nose that often gets discussed (that is in the mid levels) just don't want to confuse anyone, especially the newest of members still trying to learn.

The NAM had a pretty stout warm layer around 850mb at the 84 hour time stamp, at least in my area.

 

[griteater]

It's a precarious dance. I definitely want to see the QPF come about 100 miles further west to get the upstate and N GA in on this one, but I don't want it to to skip areas further south who are due at the same time. A blend of last nights Euro and UKMET would be good for a lot folks.

Last night's UKMet was Nirvana....cleared the front thru, then slight delay, then phases the waves well to the SE. Cold and snowy

 

[Ollie Williams]

Even so, the 850 line is much further south from a stronger cold push. It looks more like the Ukmet!
View attachment 107780

Huge run for areas to the south!

 

[Logan Is An Idiot 02]

We are starting to get a general footprint, from the upstate-sw Piedmont thru central NC and NE NCView attachment 107775

That’s 10:1 ratio as well. Totals would be even higher! Big storm in the making for ENC


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[Philstorm91]

If I was along a line from Columbia all the way to Myrtle Beach, I'd be prepping for a hellacious ice storm and pray that sleet or plain rain saves the day.

I have to be driving into Jacksonville from home in LA, arriving Friday. If current trends keep up, I may have to cut to the coast at Myrtle Beach and hug the coast all the way to Jacksonville. I guess it would be best to drive up as far as I can on Thursday, in case things deteriorate badly.

 

[iGRXY]

Expect the SW to likely phase sooner as the trend has been quicker phases . You can already starting to see more digging on the models so the GFS is about to be real telling.

 

[Ollie Williams]

this westward shift sure seems familiar - we keep doing it every single storm lol

View attachment 107779

I'm really liking the shift to a colder press over the NE. That would put a lot more people in the game for snow.

 

[Faco Thomas]

Even so, the 850 line is much further south from a stronger cold push.

That run would be good for singificant snow for the Midlands of SC and the CSRA area. Also a nice sleet event for areas futher south as well. We all need to hope for a stronger cold push with 850s crashing like Rgem model is showing. Maybe a damanging ice storm could be avoided for most areas with that sort of look.

 

[Chazwin]

We are starting to get a general footprint, from the upstate-sw Piedmont thru central NC and NE NCView attachment 107775

As long as that WAR can keep trending weaker, this might be the winner that us in the southeast parts of CLT metro have been overdue for.