Wintry 1/20 - 1/23 Winter Storm

[Oconeexman]

I would have a hard time putting any stock in the NAM; it performed very poorly in this last storm, especially the 12k.

Agree for our area it was surprisingly bad. The 3k picked up at go time did good but it was now cast time by then. Rgem was really good but we are a ways for that to come in play. I've seen jan 2002 and 2014 mentioned which both were novelty events for nw sc and ne ga btw. It's pretty dang awesome to be tracking a 2nd storm in a week regardless how this plays out given how bad December was.

 

[griteater]

I thought a Miller B would always have an initial low that would transfer to a new developing low. This almost always results in CAD. I thought a Miller A had no hand off of one low to another. I didn’t think p-types had anything to do with whether it was a Miller A or B. For instance, couldn’t you have a Miller A in May that was rain only - or for that matter a Miller B with all rain? In sum, doesn’t miller A or Miller B have to do with atmospheric pressures and development, and nothing to do with p-types? Obviously, mixed Ptypes are more synonymous with Miller B’s and less so with Miller A’s. Thanks. TW

Correct. There was a Miller A in March (I think 2015 or thereabouts) that crushed the Triad with freezing rain

 

[Cary_Snow95]

GFS holding energy back a little more in the sw

 

[packfan98]

Northern stream looks a little stronger and is digging further west on the 12z gfs compared to 6z. Let's see where it goes.

 

[wow]

The souther s/w is going to trend stronger and influence the energy over the N Plains more... more phasing is where it's going.

 

[Cary_Snow95]

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

A lot more interaction on 12Z GFS this run

 

[packfan98]

The souther s/w is going to trend stronger and influence the energy over the N Plains more... more phasing is where it's going.

Yeah, much more robust energy than the 6z run.

 

[FallsLake]

Wow, with the modeled temps the "normal" 10:1 ratios might be a lot higher (for folks that stay all snow).

 

[wow]

GFS really doesn't want to do a phase.. it's trying its hardest not to

 

[Cary_Snow95]

Little flatter as it gets stretched

 

[DopplerWx]

gfs not quite as far west w precip vs 6z

 

[Cary_Snow95]

We are getting pretty good agreement. I’d expect euro to come in a little less amped

 

[BirdManDoomW]

GFS very close to my thinking with hammering n/e NC and s/e VA could go boom there

 

[Metwannabe]

For my own area I'm fine with flatter, give me multiple days of precip overrunning cold air and I'll be a happy camper. Phase too early, get it too amped and it's back NW..... I know different people need different things for their area.

 

[LukeBarrette]

We are getting pretty good agreement. I’d expect euro to come in a little less amped

I mean NAM and GFS are completely different at 500mb vort view.

 

[deltadog03]

GFS looking colder at 2m for sure around here. Precip about to blossom this way around hr90 it appears? SLP in the GOM

 

[DopplerWx]

still think you have to love how this looks at this point if you're rdu/clt/upstate. solid snow soundings with a little wiggle room if we come in a bit more amped. give me 25 degrees and snow all day long and ill gladly take qpf as my only worry vs torching 850s.

 

[Snowflowxxl]

GFS is getting closer to a 24 hour mega event. I think it will continuing tending that way as we get closer.

 

[Mitch West]

12z GFS is reviving the 2nd system. About to pull up more moisture out the Gulf, it showed signs of this during the 06z run