Oh boy ? already liking the change at H5 and overall reflectivity 
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Wintry 1/20 - 1/23 Winter Storm
- Thread starter packfan98
- Start date
Hrrr might pull a RGEM
L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
Oh boyalready liking the change at H5 and overall reflectivity View attachment 108916View attachment 108917
already liking the change at H5 and overall reflectivity Precip is way west compared to 18z*
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WOAH, snow breaking out far back west !!! 
Its a good ol fashioned stuff is flying around in a snowflake pattern but its drizzle here. 34/32
D
Deleted member 609
Guest
lexxnchloe
Member
Eric Webb did say the models were going to show more snow.
Light snow/flurries. Don’t think this is going to amount to anything here with the FROPA, not that I had much hope, anyways.
Holy hell !!! 
Ron Burgundy
Member
We’re gonna get Snowjam ‘22. I can feel it in my bones.
Yeah it's a great start to the 0z model suites
LOL, 00z HRRR isn’t far off from HRRRing KATL. ?
iGRXY
Member
Checking the HRRR soundings where it dry as the bands are consolidating and they support moisture falling through the column so I think this run is still too dry. And that’s saying something because we are extending bands back into Georgia now
lexxnchloe
Member
If that back end expands and fills in it will be a big ticket item!!
I did too as soon at 00z euro last night, just due to 700mb trends and flow.. but you know; forgot i'm on webberwx dot com instead of southernwx
Hypsometric
Member
Yes you have. I’ve read you say this over and over today. Major kudos.
packfan98
Moderator
How does the 700mb and flow look on this run? The footprint of coverage looks good, but the precip totals look pretty meager, at least on the western flank.
Holy ****
18z vs 00z
18z vs 00z
I don't have great maps to be getting into specifics. I've just been looking at the free data I have and just taking the whole idea of more saturation = more moisture = models trending better for a westward expanse of precipitation. If someone wanted to post the maps and jets etc that'd be cool
iGRXY
Member
Per Chris Jackson (South Carolina)
”Post coming by 10pm. Looking at the latest guidance coming in and the upper air balloon soundings from this evening.
For the Pee Dee my thoughts remain unchanged for the most part, but I’m currently leaning towards more impacts in the Midlands than I thought would occur yesterday.
Give me a bit to look over this pretty thoroughly and I should have something out by 10.
- Chris”
”Post coming by 10pm. Looking at the latest guidance coming in and the upper air balloon soundings from this evening.
For the Pee Dee my thoughts remain unchanged for the most part, but I’m currently leaning towards more impacts in the Midlands than I thought would occur yesterday.
Give me a bit to look over this pretty thoroughly and I should have something out by 10.
- Chris”
Christian T Murray
Member
Very nice move s/w on the low. Honestly still think its underdoing precipitation especially if this low placement stays where its at on this run
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iGRXY
Member
NCSNOW
Member
Coastal LP only moved 100 miles futher west. Need one more like that.
Sounding from mby, HRRR is likely underselling mesoscale banding/moderate snow bands and not showing them well, sounding easily shows lots of mid level lift/omega in the DGZ associated with the entrance of dCVA associated with the northern stream energy, this sounding easily supports moderate snow, another reason why amounts appear light under the snow band 
Still all drizzle here
DadOfJax
Member
Absolutely
Was that the real low or just where the model placed the L?
iGRXY
Member
I would not be surprised to see areas on the west side of this bust potentially. This really has the makings of dropping 1-3” pretty far back west and I was leaning 2-4 for a Raleigh but it wouldn’t surprise me to see them get even more than that
Snow/sleet mix here at Wake/Durham line.
Just drove here from Apex. Rain started mixing w/ sleet around Morrisville, w/ snow mixing starting around 540. Snow becoming more prominent N of 540/Leesville.
Just drove here from Apex. Rain started mixing w/ sleet around Morrisville, w/ snow mixing starting around 540. Snow becoming more prominent N of 540/Leesville.
NCWeatherhound
Member
35 now ... 3 degrees in one hour.
blueheronNC
Member
Unfortunately the radar is drying up
iGRXY
Member
The difference just from 6 hours ago to the initialization is funny. The northern stream already looks better
yeah i typically don't like playing this game but the differences only 3 (!!!) hours into the nam are already pretty positive.
iGRXY
Member
Trailing energy is significantly stronger
iGRXY
Member
Bro this is only 9 hours in and this is about 100x better
Bruh 
iGRXY
Member
If this run doesn’t go boom, I give up.
NCSNOW
Member
Looking at surface map, so grain of salt. Answer both. Pressure was 1mb higher= weaker. Its so broad, but the bottom wasnt closed off on the isobar and extended way back west into florida. The whole spread out gyre moved west, sw.
Again this isn't how u verify.