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Wintry 1/20 - 1/23 Winter Storm

I'm not guaranteeing anything, but having lived in Charlotte for 20 years the NW trends have been more reliable than any weather model. In my opinion the piedmont of NC will overperform. I have a Met degree but knowing previous experiences/tendencies in the upstate of SC and piedmont of NC are more valuable. It's nowcasting time. Good luck to all for an unexpected thump, and keep up the good work!!
 
crawford76 said:
I'm not guaranteeing anything, but having lived in Charlotte for 20 years the NW trends have been more reliable than any weather model. In my opinion the piedmont of NC will overperform. I have a Met degree but knowing previous experiences/tendencies in the upstate of SC and piedmont of NC are more valuable. It's nowcasting time. Good luck to all for an unexpected thump, and keep up the good work!!
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If anyone reading has a met degree and doesn't have a tag indicating so under their username, message one of the staff with credentials so we can get that fixed.
 
I'm going to start this off by saying that i love the NAM. I enjoy the NAM for what it is. The NAM and it's 3km brother have a lot of use. And nobody's takeaway from this event should be "the NAM is terrible".

namconus_z500_vort_eus_fh13_trend.gif
But this? This is poverty model stuff. This is a model currently run by Dan Snyder. Watch the wind barbs change in Illinois, Missouri, and Oklahoma. NAM just never got a good grip on this thing. We got routed by the Canadians.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
We’re trending to a halfway version of January 17 2018 basically
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Probably still more along the lines of January 1-2 2018. I remember precip extending over the west in almost the exact same manner that most models didn’t catch onto.
 
I’m sorry but if these trends continue throughout tomorrow we have to give the RGEM more respect.
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ILMRoss said:
Mountain meteorology was never my strong suit but I wonder if the little band that develops near the mountains to kick things off is related to a little lee side cyclogenesis, seems to line up when the most forceful vorticity goes over the area
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Honestly it’s very similar to how the models began picking up on the mesolow that developed near the SC upstate during the January 2003 storm… if something like that does occur the short range models will start picking up on it over the next few hours.
 
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