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Wintry 1/20 - 1/23 Winter Storm
- Thread starter packfan98
- Start date
Basically we should want mix of what Icon model has(less suppressed) and what the CMC has(better cold press and allowing the 850s to be futher SE)?
Downeastnc
Member
This why I like the flatter solutions, high ratio snows........
This is most likely well underdone as well...the trends are exactly what I hoped they would be down the stretch back to a less amped more traditional overrunning setup...again I totally expect someone between you and me to get 6-12" out of this....just need to trend to keep up, there will be some mixing to start I think but by Friday night its gonna be all snow and Sat gonna be glorious...
I mean I dont hate it....
Hypsometric
Member
Avalanche
Member
TWC going with climo saying NW NC foothills and mountains see some snow and Raleigh on east rain.
L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
Yeah I’m thinking the CMC ensembles will not agree with it either
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Yeah, this setup isn't climo. Definitely much colder and RDU will at least see sleet if they can get the precip.
Don’t worry about the Canadian if your in Raleigh and s/e Virginia. I’m largely taking a blend with the latest CMC/GFS and new euro about to run I think it will spit some totals as far west as Raleigh area and Virginia for warning criteria 3-6” and 6-12” in spots. 
Due to staffing issues they had me and @BIG FROSTY getting 12-18” at hr 0 with the last storm. Ended up 2-6”. Complete joke no model even showed that.
snowlover91
Member
RGEM was a shift less amped and drier as well though. Suppression is still a possibility if the southern vort hangs back too much, imo.
Snowflowxxl
Member
UKMET is much more south vs last night
cyclogent
Member
GEFS really ramping up the precip over GA and Carolinas the last several runs...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Sounds like last storm and the bias the UK has at this lead.
Snowflowxxl
Member
Snowflowxxl
Member
The UK met last week at 90 hours was close to spot on. It’s biases show more in 120-144 range
Avalanche
Member
Eerily similar to Birdman's forecast.
Cary_Snow95
Member
Pretty easy to see why I’m favoring a precip sheild further NW then modeled, this setup is driven by 850mb/700mb WAA and FGEN which is responsible for overrunning in the first place, imo even with the artic front itself, there’s already insentropic upglide, globals don’t handle this well at all, mesoscale models do 
