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Wintry 1/20 - 1/23 Winter Storm

FallsLake said:
A third of them look similar to the Canadian. So at this point, I would say a miss (at least for central NC) is a real possibility.
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A certain poster who's no longer here would point out that 2 thirds show a good hit. I will take this look any day.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
There’s many notorious examples of global NWP also whiffing on overrunning while mesoscale models caught on. December 2017, February 2014 are big ones, this list goes on
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Could you explain how the overrunning could and does occur in the I-85 corridor? I remember both of those storms you referenced very well. Just trying to learn about the actual process itself.


Thanks for all your insight the past few days. I have learned a lot from your posts.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
DixieBlizzard said:
The models sure seem to be shifting east wrt my area of the world. The million dollar question is how much will these models trend NW (and they very well may not) and unless we see some more amplification, this could be another swing and maybe not a compete miss but a foul ball. Pedestrian 1" type SN.

What say you N GA posters? How comfortable are you with the trends of the past 12 hours or so?
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Not too worried. Thermals look good for us even with n/w trend in mind. Energy needs to phase earlier but it seems like all winter the models push storms back and slow them down by 12-18 hours. As said above Precipitation shield is almost always under modeled. I’m not worried, just watch and wait!
 
LovingGulfLows said:
Yeah I don't even know what to think about this for the Atlanta area. I've been struggling to understand this set up....I mean I know it's a wave of low pressure causing overrunning on the edge of the cold air mass, but I'm still struggling with understanding how we can maximize potential snow/sleet in the metro area. Even if it trends northwest, not even sure it'll be cold enough for snow here. It's mainly why I've been quiet and just reading the posts and analyzing the models.
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Wouldn’t this be like the Dec 2017 over running event, but with a colder airmass in place? I’m above my pay grade here so please let me know if I’m not seeing the differences.
 
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