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Wintry 1/20 - 1/23 Winter Storm

Shawn said:
Not a buzzkill at all. The ice threat is real and through all the excitement, we need to be watching out for those members too. A lot of older people retire closer to the coasts and while hurricanes are just or even more devastating, ice isn't "evacuated" for etc. I hope the local offices are on top, I haven't read many discussions. @GaWx and @Stormsfury have been ominously quiet lately. Same with a lot of NC posters in the coastal area.
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I live near the coast in Charleston, SC and right now it’s only forecasted to be 0.1”. I’m not sure if it may increase with the latest model runs or not but a lot of people around me don’t seem concerned. I’m ready to go with my generator just in case.


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ILMRoss said:
Yeah don't mean to be a buzzkill but RGEM is a historic ice storm for the immediate coast. There are a lot of coastal folks (aka my PARENTS) that think that they're good for an ice storm since they made it through floyd and florence and fran. Wilmington may be ok since they got smacked in 2014, my old neighborhood had like a half inch of ice and things got crippled. My neighbor's oak tree collapsed and it ended up in the local paper. RGEM has 0.5-0.6 in Wilmington and unlike other situations I think a high percentage of that will accrue. That cold air source is coming in hard and unwavering, no latent heat release safeguards here. This is upper end stuff but any accumulation along the immediate coast over 0.5 inches immediately gets placed in historic territory.
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There’s not going to be a deeper cold layer in the upper levels like you get in prime CAD areas to save you from the ice. It’s a solidly in the 20’s and a lot of the precip is just light to moderate stuff making for excellent accrual. The grand strand and a large portion of the eastern pee dee will get significant ice in my opinion
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
This is gonna trend into a big snowstorm at this pace, I’m not even playing, this is insane View attachment 108993
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I thought we’d be lucky to trend a phase close to Memphis. This thing is getting pushed back the the Texas and Arkansas border. That’s screaming for a major snow breakout through the Carolinas and even Georgia
 
jrips27 said:
I was just looking at that exact thing with the energy. Each run gets stronger. Insane shifts.
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I got a feeling metro Atlanta is in for a big surprise snow from this storm based on the westward trends. I’ll be honest, it sure does look like it’s headed that way- especially if the trends continue this way.
 
iGRXY said:
I thought we’d be lucky to trend a phase close to Memphis. This thing is getting pushed back the the Texas and Arkansas border. That’s screaming for a major snow breakout through the Carolinas and even Georgia
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What do think mets on the GSP Field Office are thinking watching these model runs this evening? At least Raleigh’s CWFA is all under an advisory of sometime, so most of their people that they cover are expecting something… GSP only has advisories for its 3 most eastern counties.
 
I don't think we will very much if any more westward shift of the LP but a more expansive precipitation shield to the north, west, and south is likely IMO. I am VERY worried about ice right along the coast and it could be a damaging event for places like ILM, Pee Dee of SC and Outer Banks (but they may be saved by mixing in with plain rain.) Good luck to everyone.
 
GFS incoming

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atlweatherman said:
I got a feeling metro Atlanta is in for a big surprise snow from this storm based on the westward trends. I’ll be honest, it sure does look like it’s headed that way- especially if the trends continue this way.
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It's possible these storms always over produced NW traditional it just seemed the storm was in Atlantic Ocean nearly 18 hours ago
 
iGRXY said:
What’s even scarier is globals don’t pick up on FGEN driven precip very well so these surface maps are likely still under done some
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Very true…and the GFS is showing some fairly heavy bands on this run.
 
lexxnchloe said:
That doesnt sound good. Will power outages be widespread?
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Totally depends. The Wilmington forecast is incredibly tough to nail down. I'm good friends with a chief at one of the stations down there and Wednesday we were both in consensus it was the biggest deal since Florence (but this was before our dry trend).

First thing I'm worried about is the duration- the coast never really sees a precipitation lull and any westward shifts could make the coast see 10 extra hours of heavier rain starting tomorrow morning.

Second thing I'm worried about is the cold air source- it's usually what busts but this is such a stout and ironclad cold air mass that it should have no problem sticking in the 29-30 degree range as the 3km name depicts.

Third thing I'm worried about is that the precip never really gets heavy. A lot of the caveats we throw on ice events like heavier rates don't really apply as well here. The only situation where I could see less ice is if the cold dome is undermodeled and sleet saves the day.

As for the coast itself I'm ambivalent on the impacts and power outages. On the one hand the NC coast has been raked by a lot of nuisance tropical activity (and florence) lately so you'd think the weak links area already taken care of. On the other hand, ice seems like a completely different type of tree stressor so it's hard to say how much previous storms will have an effect. If you want to play it safe then preparing for 2-3 days without power is a good idea (depending on how close you live to a hospital).
 
brendan123 said:
DT says models look weaker... his thinking definitely goes against recent model runs
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He’s just factually wrong. There’s no way to say the modeling has gotten weaker. If he doesn’t like the setup, that’s fine, but the models have trended more strongly today.
 
jrips27 said:
No freaking way. We were down 2 touchdowns with a minute left. Feels like we just ran the kick back and recovered the onside kick. Got to finish it and bring it home. Game on boys. This is crazy!
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My gut is saying surprise snowstorm for Atlanta. Just think if this thing phases sooner. The trend is our friend.
 
Rain Cold said:
Looks like 7-8 hours of snow central/east NC. Not bad.
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That long doesn’t sound like much, but when you’re getting moderate to heavy banding in that time and the snow is able to accumulate as efficiently as the set up for tomorrow and tomorrow night, it can add up in a real hurry
 
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