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Wintry 1/20 - 1/23 Winter Storm

GFS precip bump

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ILMRoss said:
Totally depends. The Wilmington forecast is incredibly tough to nail down. I'm good friends with a chief at one of the stations down there and Wednesday we were both in consensus it was the biggest deal since Florence (but this was before our dry trend).

First thing I'm worried about is the duration- the coast never really sees a precipitation lull and any westward shifts could make the coast see 10 extra hours of heavier rain starting tomorrow morning. Second thing I'm worried about is the cold air source- it's usually what busts but this is such a stout and ironclad cold air mass that it should have no problem sticking in the 29-30 degree range as the 3km name depicts.

Second thing I'm worried about is that the precip never really gets heavy. A lot of the caveats we throw on ice events like heavier rates don't really apply as well here. The only situation where I could see less ice is if the cold dome is undermodeled and sleet saves the day.

As for the coast itself I'm ambivalent on the impacts and power outages. On the one hand the NC coast has been raked by a lot of nuisance tropical activity (and florence) lately so you'd think the weak links area already taken care of. On the other hand, ice seems like a completely different type of tree stressor so it's hard to say how much previous storms will have an effect. If you want to play it safe then preparing for 2-3 days without power is a good idea (depending on how close you live to a hospital).
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Thanks for the info. Im hoping alot of it might fall as sleet if im lucky. One good thing is we have alot of supplies in the garage ready for another Hazel, lol.
 
superjames1992 said:
He’s just factually wrong. There’s no way to say the modeling has gotten weaker. If he doesn’t like the setup, that’s fine, but the models have trended more strongly today.
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He normally is pretty reliable and unbiased but the fact that he's in Richmond and got shafted by the frontal precip today probably is affecting his thinking, funny thing is a few more NW shifts would bring him a much bigger storm tomorrow
 
Nobody mentioned this but at the sfc the HRRR doesn’t appear to ever get as cold as the NAM or globals. Not sure how much the NAMs seeming “ cold bias “ on highs the last few days here applies to this situation . Just something I noticed . Don’t think it matters , except for maybe the coast .
 
superjames1992 said:
He’s just factually wrong. There’s no way to say the modeling has gotten weaker. If he doesn’t like the setup, that’s fine, but the models have trended more strongly today.
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Yeah I’m not a meteorologist but I follow these models enough to know when things are weakening and when things are strengthening. I’ll defer to Webb considering the amount of research he has done and showed into Carolina Winter Storms
 
Where is the best place to get the current 850mb temperature map?
 
Every model just about for 2 weeks has had a min. or completely dry over the NW piedmont and N foothills counties , Stokes, NW Forsyth, Yadkin, Surry. It seems to be trend for awhile, most of the time it has been right. Hence one of the reason Pilot Mountain fire grew so quick
 
LovingGulfLows said:
Honestly GFS is moist throughout much of GA at hour 24 except at the 700mb height where it's relatively dry(still somewhat moist). 925, 850, and 500mb heights are all very moist. Very interesting.
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I’ve got a feeling the Canadian is going to bite here. It was close at 12z.


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I remember my parents and grandparents telling me about storms where they weren’t calling for much of anything and they wake up with half a foot on the ground. Those storms had to have pulled last minute trends like this but models weren’t available to the public like they are now. This has trended to a 1-2” storm even in the upstate and that’s with 24 hours to go.
 
I couldn't tell if I was getting just a mist or actual flurries, but apparently it is freezing drizzle because its still above freezing at 850.

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iGRXY said:
I remember my parents and grandparents telling me about storms where they weren’t calling for much of anything and they wake up with half a foot on the ground. Those storms had to have pulled last minute trends like this but models weren’t available to the public like they are now. This has trended to a 1-2” storm even in the upstate and that’s with 24 hours to go.
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Was actually talking to my parents about the same thing today. I can recall this happening a couple of times.
 
I hate to beat up on DT too bad. He's a good met, but he sometimes lets his emotions get in the way of his forecasting. He does a good job in the Mid-Atlantic, but I don't think he's ever been right with a NC snow forecast. He's like the real life version of the Euro Control. Fun to look but only helpful if you know how to use it.
 
Rain Cold said:
I hate to beat up on DT too bad. He's a good met, but he sometimes lets his emotions get in the way of his forecasting. He does a good job in the Mid-Atlantic, but I don't think he's ever been right with a NC snow forecast. He's like the real life version of the Euro Control. Fun to look but only helpful if you know how to use it.
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Yea I think he thinks of nc as Florida. If it snows, it snows.
 
ILMRoss said:
Totally depends. The Wilmington forecast is incredibly tough to nail down. I'm good friends with a chief at one of the stations down there and Wednesday we were both in consensus it was the biggest deal since Florence (but this was before our dry trend).

First thing I'm worried about is the duration- the coast never really sees a precipitation lull and any westward shifts could make the coast see 10 extra hours of heavier rain starting tomorrow morning.

Second thing I'm worried about is the cold air source- it's usually what busts but this is such a stout and ironclad cold air mass that it should have no problem sticking in the 29-30 degree range as the 3km name depicts.

Third thing I'm worried about is that the precip never really gets heavy. A lot of the caveats we throw on ice events like heavier rates don't really apply as well here. The only situation where I could see less ice is if the cold dome is undermodeled and sleet saves the day.

As for the coast itself I'm ambivalent on the impacts and power outages. On the one hand the NC coast has been raked by a lot of nuisance tropical activity (and florence) lately so you'd think the weak links area already taken care of. On the other hand, ice seems like a completely different type of tree stressor so it's hard to say how much previous storms will have an effect. If you want to play it safe then preparing for 2-3 days without power is a good idea (depending on how close you live to a hospital).
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What's your thoughts on western Cartaret Co/EI area? Wilmington is a good ways down the coastline from me. MHX seems to think eastern Cartaret/Beaufort area is mostly liquid rain yet western Cartaret/EI is potentially on the heavier end of ZR. It appears to be a sharp cutoff of rain and zr. They mentioned wind direction over the sound as a mitigating factor for eastern Cartaret. It's very interesting.
 
The GFS gives my area in Wake County 3.8 inches if you use a 12 to 1 inch snow to liquid precipitation ratio. I like the accumulation maps but since I haven't seen one for the latest run I thought I would go old school since I am slowly becoming an old man.
 
Rain Cold said:
I hate to beat up on DT too bad. He's a good met, but he sometimes lets his emotions get in the way of his forecasting. He does a good job in the Mid-Atlantic, but I don't think he's ever been right with a NC snow forecast. He's like the real life version of the Euro Control. Fun to look but only helpful if you know how to use it.
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Yeah, I’ve always found his forecast for NC to be pretty awful to the point of basically being useless. I don’t think he pays attention to south of Richmond much. He’s a full on Mid Atlantic weenie.
 
Lickwx said:
Nobody mentioned this but at the sfc the HRRR doesn’t appear to ever get as cold as the NAM or globals. Not sure how much the NAMs seeming “ cold bias “ on highs the last few days here applies to this situation . Just something I noticed . Don’t think it matters , except for maybe the coast .
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It's pretty telling that the GFS is this cold at the sfc (it was a furnace in the last one - high pressure to our north in both cases though damming not as strong this time).

But this is pretty amazeballs as Mack would say. The loop runs from 7AM Fri to 4PM Fri and the temperatures either remain the same or get colder (especially to the south) during the daytime hours, and there's no precip during this timeframe north of a line from Augusta to New Bern. I mean, we hardly EVER see this kind of stuff with temperatures and snowfall

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