Lots of stuff still on the table… Thanks Grit
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Wintry 1/20 - 1/23 Winter Storm
- Thread starter packfan98
- Start date
Snow seems more spotty but more backbuilding .. interesting .. still could have a couple more hours of on and off snow 
Yeah but I think the difference here is that temps aren’t supposed to be below freezing until seemingly most moisture is gone. In 2014 we were in the upper 20s while snow was falling. That was like the perfect recipe for disaster. Not saying there can’t be issues tomorrow but things would have to really crank for their to be problems like that.
I remember one of the Atl NWS mets saying that there has only been 2 times when there was accumulating snow in Atlanta during the daytime with temperatures dropping into the mid-20's - both snowjams ('82 / '14)
Yeah, I guess it is a battle between the very slow warming trends of most models with the westward shift of precip vs most models not handing well the low level cold of strong wedges giving NAM and CMC/RGEM an advantage. Will be close, regardless.
We should get a better idea by looking to your north tomorrow morning at how fast temperatures are cooling as the wedge advances vs models.
I’ll also be closely watching CHS because in situations like this SAV will usually get within 1-2 of KCHS eventually albeit delayed.
The 3 hr visibility thing might be the hardest to meet. (falling/blowing sn) But I am just speculating. Good luck though. It's rare to even be in a position to consider if that kind of warning is a possibility.
brendan123
Member
Southeastern Virginia's been pretty lucky with snowstorms recently (besides the past 3 years), we got back to back blizzard warnings after none for 40 years in 2017 and 2018, crazy to think even the possibility might be there again now
It might be about to put down in Durham
32 here right now
Yep. Will never forget that day. If anyone is up for a stroll down memory lane. Starts to get interesting around page 8 haha
1/28-1/30 SE Winter Storm OBS
Okay gang I'm determined to join the party one way or another! Since it's looking more & more likely that I won't have obs to post I'm going to go ahead & start the obs thread. Barring a unforeseen collapse in modeling a large part of the deep south is getting winter weather. Good luck to...
www.americanwx.com
I got a light dusting of snow on some elevated surfaces from the initial Arctic front, probably will go down as a T at RDU officially but it's a nice appetizer before the main event
Snowflowxxl
Member
1/28/14 is my favorite storm. It turned Atlanta into a damn zoo lol and over performed.
Stormsfury
Member
Indeed. The current winter weather advisory starts here at 1pm tomorrow until 3am Saturday morning. Temp is starting to fall at a faster rate plus it's starting to get breezy from N and NNE.
Hard to believe after I hit 73 today.
Hm some raw CAE output... like the higher than 10:1 rates showing up... 5.1 inches per gfs and 2.5 nam
00z GFS:
00z NAM:
00z GFS:
Code:
220122/0000Z 24 03008KT 28.7F SNPL 10:1| 0.3|| 0.02|| 0.00|| 0.031 10:1| 0.3|| 0.02|| 0.00|| 0.03 71| 29| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
220122/0100Z 25 03007KT 28.1F SNOW 15:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.061 14:1| 1.3|| 0.02|| 0.00|| 0.09 100| 0| 0
220122/0200Z 26 04007KT 27.9F SNOW 12:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.049 13:1| 1.9|| 0.02|| 0.00|| 0.14 100| 0| 0
220122/0300Z 27 02006KT 27.8F SNOW 15:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.056 14:1| 2.7|| 0.02|| 0.00|| 0.20 100| 0| 0
220122/0400Z 28 02008KT 27.4F SNOW 17:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.067 14:1| 3.8|| 0.02|| 0.00|| 0.26 100| 0| 0
220122/0500Z 29 03007KT 27.2F SNOW 15:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.059 15:1| 4.7|| 0.02|| 0.00|| 0.32 100| 0| 0
220122/0600Z 30 03007KT 27.0F SNOW 11:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.039 14:1| 5.1|| 0.02|| 0.00|| 0.36 100| 0| 000z NAM:
Code:
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
220122/0100Z 25 02009KT 29.2F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.03|| 0.027 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.03|| 0.03 0| 0|100
220122/0200Z 26 01008KT 29.2F SNPL 2:1| 0.1|| 0.07|| 0.00|| 0.041 2:1| 0.1|| 0.07|| 0.03|| 0.07 11| 89| 0
220122/0300Z 27 01009KT 29.6F SNOW 16:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.046 9:1| 0.8|| 0.07|| 0.03|| 0.11 100| 0| 0
220122/0400Z 28 01009KT 28.8F SNOW 14:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.052 11:1| 1.5|| 0.07|| 0.03|| 0.17 100| 0| 0
220122/0500Z 29 02008KT 28.8F SNOW 16:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.043 12:1| 2.2|| 0.07|| 0.03|| 0.21 100| 0| 0
220122/0600Z 30 03009KT 29.0F SNOW 10:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.028 12:1| 2.5|| 0.07|| 0.03|| 0.24 100| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
I wish there were a way to go back and view model data from back then. I don't even remember what models showed beforehand. I remember a winter storm watch then warning was issued for southern metro ATL counties the day before the event and then expanded to the rest of metro Atlanta the morning of the event.
If this event overperforms and causes similar issues in Atlanta, it'd be one of the biggest model fails in recent memory.
You can use the Tigge dataset from ECMWF that archives past model runs if you want code it up. You could also probably read through old American threads.
ECMWF | TIGGE Data Retrieval
apps.ecmwf.int
LovingGulfLows
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What do you think about the current model data? I feel like with the moisture profiles, there's definitely room for this event to 'overperform' for some of N GA.
Snowflowxxl
Member
The models had the sweet spot for Macon-Warner Robins until 36 hours before the event, when they started to shift North. They still whiffed pretty bad.
These events tend to over-perform in terms of precip northwest of the low/overrunning. I think parts of east-central GA have a chance for some accumulating snow along with the NEGA mountains. In terms of anything for the ATL Metro, flurries only. Could be some "heavier" flurries but nothing accumulating.
The models have done pretty bad with this system, though. Sorta makes me really think that volcano last week is having a major effect on global modelling for the time being. It's not just this system that models are struggling with.
In terms of the NW trend, the 00z MMFS (which is still coming in) seems to have taken a pretty big step NW along with the other guidance. I really agree with this depiction in terms of GA/SC ptype.
Euro out to 24, and it's following along with the trends of the other models of digging more vorticity into the backside of the trough. Won't be a huge difference probably, but it's there
Here's the difference at the surface on the Euro at hr27
GeorgiaGirl
Member
I believe the reason why that storm busted was because the NW side of the precip shield was underestimated. The short range models caught on better (the reason I can say that is there is a long stream related to this storm where the guy in there is talking about how the short range models were a warning shot).
I don’t remember what the models showed, but I do remember that Rome (which is where I was at for college for a little while, yes, it’s been that long and I’m still trying to work on being able to figure out how to make something of myself and get a job, it’s sad and I’m feeling it a bit more lately, what I’m working on now is medical coding) was supposed to just see a dusting of snow.
Ended up with a few inches of powder. Fun storm.
Don’t know if it’ll be as bad of a bust as that, but certainly feels as if Atlanta could see some flakes.
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Euro 00z vs 12z.
Euro snowfall compared to 12z.
Euro total precip trend for 7AM Fri to 7AM Sat....last 3 runs
And of course it goes without saying these are 10:1 ratios being shown
The Euro is getting precip all the way to the mountains now. Casual 100+ mile shift right before zero hour.
These snow shower might pack a punch when they move by .. anything more at this point is just guaranteeing more road issues tonight and tomorrow morning
Euro Kuchera last 3 runs
The strengthening jet component has looked good all along on the Euro....getting more surface response on the model now
00z MMFS is in!
Snowfall Accumulation
ZR Accumulation
Experimental Winter Storm Impact Index
Showing an expansion of the NW precip. Snow accumulations have slightly increased as well. Still showing a high impact event for many in NC/SC.
Snowfall Accumulation
ZR Accumulation
Experimental Winter Storm Impact Index
Showing an expansion of the NW precip. Snow accumulations have slightly increased as well. Still showing a high impact event for many in NC/SC.
Well well well. Current conditions in atlanta
Latest HRRR from noon tomorrow thru the end of its run. A beauty!
Indeed. I noticed this a couple of hours ago. I have a glaze on my back deck.
29.3F
Wow this model did a 180 quickly .. I wonder what piece of information really made everything finally see this solution there had to be bad data at some point given to all the models
I feel like it keeps getting a tad faster .. entering wake around 5-6 .. wonder if we can get this thing here at 12 pm .. the more hours in these temperatures of that type of snow .. magic can happen .. we want every hour we can get
Not sure what it is, but just about every model has made the adjustment. Models in general have really struggled with this storm & have had higher than usual run-to-run inconsistency.
05z HRRR is looking even better
You would think we would have lots of data coming from that piece of energy at H5 we have been looking at clearly trending amped