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Wintry 1/20 - 1/23 Winter Storm
- Thread starter packfan98
- Start date
I want to get excited but I'm scared too lol, the 12z eps thus far, maybe a smidge better
weather bubba
Member
Things are looking good for Central North Carolina as of now but that NW trend always worries me. I hope the carpet doesn't get pulled out from under our feet again. Give me 6 to 10 inches of snow from this storm and I can call this winter a win for me no matter what else happens!
Sorry I posted too soon lolI want to get excited but I'm scared too lol, the 12z eps thus far, maybe a smidge better
Heelyes
Member
S
So this is 6 hours before that temp map? Sign me up.I want to get excited but I'm scared too lol, the 12z eps thus far, maybe a smidge better
I think you are in a really solid place even with nuance movements over next 48hrs on the models.Sorry I posted too soon lol
Showmeyourtds
Member
That normally seems to be the case. I'd be curious to see the next few frames of the mesoscale models.
Is their a different p types or accumulation by it?
It looks like an almost even split between Miller A/B?
Actually more like a split between amped and flatter more suppressed, there really is nothing Miller B about this setup
Stephenb888
Member
Is there any way this trends better and more precipitation for those of us in NW upstate Sc? Looks weak right now.
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
Member
2024 Supporter
2017-2023 Supporter
We will see I guess
MichaelJ
Member
Those in the Triad should feel pretty good, not because it is the jackpot. but beacuase all that falls will be Sn, maybe 3-4 inches while further west into the mountains, I could see 2-3 due to the lift they get and extra cold DP's. Raleigh Metro will vary quite a bit with the most sn in the North and East sections although the further east you go the more ice will be involved. On a line Rocky Mount North into SE Va. you could see 6-8 inches but because of sleet and ZR however it will compact quite a bit by the end. The Coastal Plain unfortunately will see a lof of QPF but most will be ZR and it could be a disastrous ice storm for you folks. SC will see some snow (especially in the Northern part) but also a lot of ice which will cut into their totals. SE Va and extreme NE NC will end up being in the jackpot zone IMO. Sorry Ala, Miss, and Ga. only the mountains of Ga has a decent chance of getting some snow. FTR, I don't see a NW trend much for the LP but the precipitation will expand and be heavier than what is currently being depicted in WNC
Snowflowxxl
Member
The NAM will be the first model to show any dramatic NW shifts.
It's looking very promising up that way Met, I hope you do well with this one. What's good for some may not be good for others but nothing we can do about it, If you miss with one just look for the next one. That's how we roll anyway!Sorry I posted too soon lol
EDIT: I haven't been looking for anything from this storm anyway because I thought I seen Birdman post that we were not getting snow back here? ?
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Guidance continues to struggle with this potential winter storm this weekend. There are more model support of a cyclogenesis. The last two runs of the Euro has went toward the Canadian. About 75% of GEFS members depict some type of wintry weather. The system seems to kick out too fast to create warm air at the 850mb level in the western Carolinas and NE GA. There is support that the models are not depicting all available moister.
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Yeah, surface temps look amazing for this one. Going to be huge for us. Minimal accumulation lost to melting and the roads were get covered nearly immediately. Will make it a very high impact event even if the raw totals aren’t huge. 2” in these conditions will be higher impact on travel than 6-10” at 33F.
I’ve been ignoring this storm the last couple days to keep from getting my hopes up, but it does look promising here. Hopefully, we don’t screw this up. I’ve already got friends talking about it and the NWS point forecast is pretty confident.
