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Wintry 1/20 - 1/23 Winter Storm
- Thread starter packfan98
- Start date
LovingGulfLows
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Looking at the trends, there's probably a legit 50/50 chance I see some snowflakes fall tomorrow.
D
Deleted member 609
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3 more ticks
The rates the nams show aren’t the best but these soundings support some pretty heavy snow (red lines on the left part of the sounding signaling lift) don’t know why there isn’t more accumulation under this stuff here
NCSNOW
Member
1012mb tightened up and back west on nam
packfan98
Moderator
3k looks better for RDU than 12k
iGRXY
Member
NAM dropped just 0.11 at Spartanburg and on a normal 10:1 ratio that’s 1.1”. These will be at least 15:1 so that’s almost 1.7”. If the NAM is even a little too dry and we get closer to 0.2” or QPF that’s 3” and we could be pushing even higher than that on the ratios. The bust potential on this for everyone is ridiculously high
Oconeexman
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Congrats ol buddy!
LMAO at the NAM. Unreal. What an insane turnaround. Gotta give credit as these models are trending towards the RGEM/GGEM and also the JMA and NAVGEM. ?
Now, I’m very interested if the NAM was just correcting back towards the other models or if the RGEM/GFS/etc. go even further NW tonight at 00z.
RAH WFO must be spinning in their chairs right now.
Now, I’m very interested if the NAM was just correcting back towards the other models or if the RGEM/GFS/etc. go even further NW tonight at 00z.
RAH WFO must be spinning in their chairs right now.
Is it drizzle is it snow ? .. I think it’s snow here in Raleigh by the PNC arena 33
~*~ just NAM thingz ~*~
I mean I want to be upset but I can't, not this time but if it happens again. Lol
Personally I don't think these shifts are done, the trend tonight with the energy slowing/tilting more favorable is definitely gonna pull more moisture N/NW imho
blueheronNC
Member
Rain/snow line is taking forever to move south. About to drive north from Raleigh to see where it is.
Stephenb888
Member
Looks like maybe I can even get in on something. Was looking like 0 for a while.
So it looks like I'll just get a ZR/IP event in Jacksonville. Maybe there is a chance for flakes on the back end?
36/34 in Concord and some heavier returns heading this way?
The 01z hrrr even sharper with the northern stream
NAMs are always to stingy with precip gradients. Hopefully GFS and RGEM hold
I think most places, RAH included, kept up decent totals even when we hit the nadir yesterday. So I don't think they're spinning as much as they are getting ready to buy some victory cigars. Any shop that bit yesterday probably looks a little windshield wipery today. That being said they're probably a bit on edge because we've already proven that this is a high leverage situation, where small tweaks can have massive upstream effects, and they're likely doing a little back of the napkin math on what their high end is going to look like.
Not often we get to post obs while analyzing another event 24 hrs later
Still snowing too
Still snowing too
It’s just drizzling here. Had a brief period of light snow earlier, though.
Iceagewhereartthou
Member
? Umm 250 mile jump in one run? How about another 100?
Actually an earlier stronger phase would be nice.
Actually, I just want to see this come to fruition, but keep my midland and ENC friends in the game too!
Stephenb888
Member
Is this a recent model run?? Umm 250 mile jump in one run? How about another 100?
Actually an earlier stronger phase would be nice.
Actually, I just want to see this come to fruition, but keep my midland and ENC friends in the game too!
It’s for a couple days ago.
No look at the timestamp
Downeastnc
Member
Slight difference for MBY on the 0Z 3k versus the 18Z
Init wed 1/19 0z
This is a jaw dropping change for a 1 hour model, we literally inching closer and closer back to the weenie runs days ago 
Sigh. Got my hopes up for a spilt second.? Umm 250 mile jump in one run? How about another 100?
Actually an earlier stronger phase would be nice.
Actually, I just want to see this come to fruition, but keep my midland and ENC friends in the game too!
Yea, I was excited earlier when I saw some flakes while driving, but it's really slackened off since then. Can't tell if it's tiny flakes or drizzle, but either way it's not accumulating.
There's a decent chance we'll be subfreezing by morning. It's 34 where I am and 35 at the airport. Forecast low is 34 for both locations. *knock on wood* it's rare we get to bust on the cooler side of low temperatures especially w/ cloud cover. Ironically I think the NW winds are helping us steadily cool off.
Oconeexman
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Stop it...your drawing me in and I know better. But honestly in this set up, if I see some snow (dusting) then you and @Robert West are def getting snow and more than we were expecting. Weather Twitter World will be a happy place.
0z HRW WRF-NSSL at hour 27:
Yeah, same. I never had much hope for the frontal passage, anyways, so not too worried about it, though. In some ways, it might help us tomorrow as the cold push wasn’t as quick as modeled.
You will be below freezing before midnight. My forecast low was 34F. It’s already 31.3F, and now I’m just waiting on the next 100 mile shift west.
jay.p
Member
Light sleet in SE Cary right now
SouthGarnerSleet
Member
Getting the ever coveted “Raleigh NWS issues WSW” tweet notification tomorrow is going to feel good.
iGRXY
Member
Look how dry the 3K is over Texas for right now on the 0z run. It’s really struggling with the precip shield