Cary_Snow95
Member
Gonna be shocked if euro isn’t less amped
Perfect illustration. Over running always performs on the NW side of these systems and generally you see it along the 85 corridor.Pretty easy to see why I’m favoring a precip sheild further NW then modeled, this setup is driven by 850mb/700mb WAA and FGEN which is responsible for overrunning in the first place, imo even with the artic front itself, there’s already insentropic upglide, globals don’t handle this well at all, mesoscale models do View attachment 107811View attachment 107812View attachment 107813View attachment 107814
This has been one of the more tricky set ups I’ve seen in a while. Don’t envy the Mets on this one. Could be a big storm for the coast or verify 200 miles NW. both are equally likely imo
Most of these are a lot further NW
A third of them look similar to the Canadian. So at this point, I would say a miss (at least for central NC) is a real possibility.@90 even better.
View attachment 107820
I'm waiting to see if the EURO shows this again for a 4th straight runThe models sure seem to be shifting east wrt my area of the world. The million dollar question is how much will these models trend NW (and they very well may not) and unless we see some more amplification, this could be another swing and maybe not a compete miss but a foul ball. Pedestrian 1" type SN.
What say you N GA posters? How comfortable are you with the trends of the past 12 hours or so?