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Wintry 1/20 - 1/23 Winter Storm

BullCityWx said:
@superjames1992 @metwannabe @FallsLake have y’all noticed the freezing drizzle present on the RAP soundings tomorrow morning? Gonna be a big ticket item for the northern triangle and border counties if it’s real.
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I haven’t looked into it too much tbh, but I had noticed that in the past. Could be a sneaky way that surprises a lot of people tomorrow and makes the roads impassable if that happens. A lot of people let their guards down when we were just given a WWA, but I think if we do get a couple inches this has the potential to be more impactful than a lot of warned storms given how cold it is. The roads will be a mess with even an inch or two. And if you throw freezing drizzle into that…

18z GGEM looks pretty durn good, too.
 
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This may belong in the banter forum but: This is going to hand down go down as one of the most exhausting storms that we've had to track in a while. So much disappointment and so much excitement at the same time. I really appreciate everyone's insight and play-by-play. I wish you all luck. Hopefully, we can all be pleasantly surprised come tomorrow. Now, it's literally nowcasting time.
 
18zs were a minor step down but in the same way that like Justin Herbert is a minor step down from Aaron Rodgers (that analogy is for scale only, not comparing this event to Aaron Rodgers).

Seemed like a retreat on the northern shortwave was mediated by a little better southern stream interaction. Unclear if there’s anything there or a little deck chair shuffling on the titanic. 00z is our last crack to see if we can get some favorable adjustments
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
That’s a trend View attachment 108865
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Hey maybe I'll be able to get in on some flake action now too, looks far better than last several runs but still got that dry pocket
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2 runs ago
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Any idea why no winter weather advisories for all this rain and temps being in the 20s all day tomorrow? Esp north of Charlotte dang. Statesville City Schools are gonna try a 3 hour delay I see.
 
KyloG said:
Little surprised GFS wasn’t better. NS trough digging more pumping heights out ahead. I guess to little to late.

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I still think models are underestimating the power of all that lift on NW side of storm. It’s definitely slowing down a little also which helps.
 
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Splitting hairs at this point, but I am noticing a “bit” more gulf moisture tap across the FL Panhandle, indicative of more stream interaction. Upper end is really set, seasonal average + for the Coastal Plain. Years when we blank, going to enjoy regardless of what ends up on the snow board or melt in the sensor.

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superjames1992 said:
I haven’t looked into it too much tbh, but I had noticed that in the past. Could be a sneaky way that surprises a lot of people tomorrow and makes the roads impassable if that happens. A lot of people let their guards down when we were just given a WWA, but I think if we do get a couple inches this has the potential to be more impactful than a lot of warned storms given how cold it is. The roads will be a mess with even an inch or two. And if you throw freezing drizzle into that…

18z GGEM looks pretty durn good, too.
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Yeah and I've noticed with these types of setups, with spotty precipitation, there's always low level moisture/precip (drizzle) that models and nowcast radar don't show. It'll be interesting overnight.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
I’m sorry but I’m almost convinced there will be more on the NW side with a sounding like that and a northern stream wave digging in with strong dcvaView attachment 108872View attachment 108873
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Very much agreed… I’m gonna say 1-2” from west to east across CLT metro, dusting to 1” north and west of there. I just have to believe the H5 looks we’re seeing along with that 700mb jet is going to give us at least a few hours of light to moderate snow that should be able to efficiently accumulate
 
Not that it really matters, but the 12z NAVGEM looks pretty solid, similar to the GFS I’d say. Notable only because I tend to think it has a suppression bias? It’s not a good model, regardless, but at least we have the JMA and NAVGEM on our side. Killer combo!!! modernweenie
 
snowlover91 said:
Well 21z RAP picking up on those backside bands and filling them in. Sort of like the RGEM but lighter. View attachment 108877
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It's a step. At the very least, it looks like there will be some light snow around tomorrow evening. And it won't be the kind that you have to worry about melting before you get outside to look at it. It will be snowing and frigid. If we're lucky enough to pick up and inch or two, and if that hangs around through the day on Saturday, then we should be able to get to see the snow under a pretty bright moon Saturday night. That's one of the prettiest and most peaceful weather scenes you will experience.
 
metwannabe said:
Good thing it should be a fairly efficient snowfall accumulation wise because it's going to be a quick hitter

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The snow map from weathernerds using 'Dynamic Ratio' (below) was less in comparison to Kuchera

Here is just part of the write-up on the weathernerds site for how snowfall is calculated: ..."The algorithm uses model forecast snowfall liquid equivalent, along with temperature, relative humidity, and vertical velocity at 50 mb increments from 950 to 400 mb. The algorithm starts with the basic 10:1 ratio and then scales upward (or downward, see sections below on 2-meter temperature analysis and sleet/freezing rain) based on the number of 50 mb intervals in which saturated lift is detected within the dendritic growth zone (DGZ: defined in the code as -18° C ≤ T ≤ -12° C). If no saturated lift is detected in the DGZ, the 10:1 ratio is used. If 5 or more 50 mb intervals contain saturated lift within the DGZ, a 25:1 ratio is used. When between 0 and 5 intervals are detected, a quadratic function is applied"

So the soundings are showing snow, but the low and mid-level warm advection contributing to ascent is modest. On the flip side, this keeps the warm nose at bay. The strongest forcing for this storm is higher aloft associated with the incoming 500mb wave and upper level jet divergence (generally above the DGZ) - you can see that with the pink line on the left side of the sounding below for Raleigh. The low and mid level forcing is better as you work east toward the coast.

Bottom line: the main source region of the storm (northern stream) and the cold sounding profiles support higher snow ratios, but efficient dendrite formation is still needed in order for higher ratios to be realized. Admittedly, the GFS being a global model isn't going to pick up on banded, heavier lift as the higher resolution models will....but, it's not going to be way off in concept either

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Sctvman said:
CHS pretty much shut down tomorrow even though most of the frozen precip won’t get here till sunset. All schools virtual.
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I noticed that as I live in the Charleston area. Maybe they think it could be worst then they forecasted?


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Statesville down to 36 and dropping with growing radar returns.
 
BullCityWx said:
Roxboro hasn’t switched as of its last obs so my guess is it’s somewhere between Yanceyville and Danville
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Possible at beam height it's changed to snow but low level temperatures aren't quite supportive of it reaching the ground.
 
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