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Wintry 1/20 - 1/23 Winter Storm

Really liking the upstate thru the SW Piedmont (85 from gsp thru clt) for overrunning/FGEN generated stuff, and eastern central - NE NC/SE VA for coastal stuff With current looks, this isn’t just a flat out Miller A/hybrid given inverted trough in AL/TN. it begins initially as overrunning for areas west as well
 
Yeah, the NAM is Miller A. You can still get a lot of mixed precip types in a Miller A with CAD, depending on the setup. Miller B is a surface low tracking into N Bama / E TN (or NW of there), then reforming along the coast. Miller A / Miller B is very surface low track centric
I thought a Miller B would always have an initial low that would transfer to a new developing low. This almost always results in CAD. I thought a Miller A had no hand off of one low to another. I didn’t think p-types had anything to do with whether it was a Miller A or B. For instance, couldn’t you have a Miller A in May that was rain only - or for that matter a Miller B with all rain? In sum, doesn’t miller A or Miller B have to do with atmospheric pressures and development, and nothing to do with p-types? Obviously, mixed Ptypes are more synonymous with Miller B’s and less so with Miller A’s. Thanks. TW
 
first call subject to change fkls we are close to the event now is the time to issue these.Purple)6-12”+ snow, Red)3-6” snow/sleet mix, Blue)1-2”snow ice mix south, Yeller) 0-1” snow with ice SC south, a lot rides on lack of qpf could change 25-50miles west or east but really no major surprises instore thank you credit me if you want to copy my forecast (using blend of gfs,German,icon and dryer solutions) haven’t budged past 4 days I’m not changing by the run!6584442F-B32A-4AAA-8457-C285FF9DAEA4.jpeg
 
As long as that WAR can keep trending weaker, this might be the winner that us in the southeast parts of CLT metro have been overdue for.
Lets hope that we can trend towards a weaker WAR from this point forward. Based on history,I think that's quite unlikely,but who knows. If the Regm Model is right with the cold push,this would help many areas escape from a major ice storm and would help to put many more areas futher south in the snow zone.
 
Really liking the upstate thru the SW Piedmont (85 from gsp thru clt) for overrunning/FGEN generated stuff, and eastern central - NE NC/SE VA for coastal stuff With current looks, this isn’t just a flat out Miller A, it begins initially as overrunning for areas west
Yeah, that would really match that look of the January 2002 storm that was posted earlier. Pretty classic look for the Carolinas
 
first call subject to change fkls we are close to the event now is the time to issue these.Purple)6-12”+ snow, Red)3-6” snow/sleet mix, Blue)1-2”snow ice mix south, Yeller) 0-1” snow with ice SC south, a lot rides on lack of qpf could change 25-50miles west or east but really no major surprises instore thank you credit me if you want to copy my forecast (using blend of gfs,German,icon and dryer solutions) haven’t budged past 4 days I’m not changing by the run!View attachment 107783
First call 3-4 days out with lots of uncertainity in models is uncalled for. The UKMET bias is strong with this map. Just saying.....
 
brad is live now. saying primarily snow/sleet for clt as of now. 1-2" per the ensembles.

 
brad is live now. saying primarily snow/sleet for clt as of now.

That’s what webb told me as well for the CLT area
 
brad is live now. saying primarily snow/sleet for clt as of now.

Wow that’s something for Brad… he almost always starts out mentioning ice for CLT
 
Since I just moved to live on the beach near Morehead City, NC (Emerald Isle to be specific), I'm not used to following weather directly on the coast. How does the ocean affect precip types in a more micro environment? If you're, say, 15 miles inland, does that give you better chance to see frozen precip vs living on the beach? What's the thoughts on getting frozen precip directly on the coast in SE NC? Thanks for any input!
I am across the sound from you. The ocean has a moderating influence on our weather and the effect of the ocean lessens as you head farther inland. In this case, the warmer ocean waters will keep us warm enough to keep us mainly rain. However, areas farther inland (west of Highway 17) will be cooler which will allow for more impacts from snow, sleet, and freezing rain. For us to get snow, the low needs to move well offshore to allow colder air to be pulled in from areas to our northwest. So in order for us to get a decent storm, areas farther west will usually receive little to no precip which the majority of this board would not like.
 
Really liking the upstate thru the SW Piedmont (85 from gsp thru clt) for overrunning/FGEN generated stuff, and eastern central - NE NC/SE VA for coastal stuff With current looks
WAA with colder 850's and CAD definitely screams more FGEN. I really think 85 from NE Georgia through CLT is in a sweet spot as we will start getting the coastal moisture as well. But definitely Eastern NC looks great right now too.
 
I am across the sound from you. The ocean has a moderating influence on our weather and the effect of the ocean lessens as you head farther inland. In this case, the warmer ocean waters will keep us warm enough to keep us mainly rain. However, areas farther inland (west of Highway 17) will be cooler which will allow for more impacts from snow, sleet, and freezing rain. For us to get snow, the low needs to move well offshore to allow colder air to be pulled in from areas to our northwest. So in order for us to get a decent storm, areas farther west will usually receive little to no precip which the majority of this board would not like.
Howdy neighbor! My parents live on the sound right behind the Speedway station as soon as you come on the island, so you may be able to see their boat dock ha! I live on the island right near the EI/Indian Beach line. I really appreciate your input. I hate that we will likely see all rain. I was out west for this past event and had my flight canceled to EWN Sunday due to the storm over the weekend, so I missed that too haha! Maybe we can luck out with this one some how. Where are you in reference to the bridge coming onto the island?
 
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