Wintry 1/20 - 1/23 Winter Storm

[FallsLake]

If the more amped euro wins out and with the press of very cold air, there could be some impressive sleet totals. From everything I've read the most sleet to fall from one storm was 8". That was right here in the Triangle. Now I'm sure there has been higher totals somewhere else but I haven't found them to date. Maybe Larry would know.

 

[bouncycorn]

 

[packfan98]

 

[bouncycorn]

Higher resolution.. can see some energy along the coast.

 

[bouncycorn]

Nice moisture pump forming as of 6z Friday.. It has been consistent in showing this.. including what appears to be ZR or IP down in southern Louisiana.

 

[Chazwin]

If the more amped euro wins out and with the press of very cold air, there could be some impressive sleet totals. From everything I've read the most sleet to fall from one storm was 8". That was right here in the Triangle. Now I'm sure there has been higher totals somewhere else but I haven't found them to date. Maybe Larry would know.
View attachment 107719

This is exactly the storm I was thinking of last night when I was looking at the soundings and seeing some areas with 1.5-2” of QPF falling as sleet.

 

[bouncycorn]

Definitely showing more expansive precip this run.

 

[NCSNOW]

Crazy that the mountains could get 2 feet + total within a week if you count last storm. Who is booking the Southernwx cabin?

Some of them werent to far from getting it out of one. saw a Avery County spotter with 20 and it was still spitting into last night.

 

[Shawn]

MMFS is about to be a monster lights out event to the coastal regions even, it looks.

 

[Zander98al]

View attachment 107725

Definitely showing more expansive precip this run.

Any noticeable biases in your model? 50-75 miles swath of possible freezing rain through central Alabama.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

06. CMC less impressive with southern wave resulting in almost no precip

 

[bouncycorn]

Any noticeable biases in your model? 50-75 miles swath of possible freezing rain through central Alabama.

We've squashed all of the synoptic biases we've found. Honestly, it's biggest issues are with severe systems. I run a 2km to 3km hires version for severe systems and it has some issues with storm initiation, storm interaction, etc. With synoptic features and larger scale events, including winter storms, it has been lights out, really.

 

[bouncycorn]

Holy smokes, this is gonna be a monster!

 

[tempo47]

That reflectivity looks like ATL is gonna get hammered if its cold enough

 

[bouncycorn]

That reflectivity looks like ATL is gonna get hammered if its cold enough

I think the precip is too light that far north.. remember this is composite reflectivity. When I get a chance, i'll switch it over to 3hr QPF instead of reflectivity. Definitely major ZR accums for east central ga thru the carolinas. I'll send the ptype totals when the system makes it's way thru

 

[packfan98]

Looks to be a little more stream separation on the 6z euro. Let’s see where it goes.

 

[BHS1975]

Looks to be a little more stream separation on the 6z euro. Let’s see where it goes.

Should be less amped but less cold right?


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[Myfrotho704_]

Woa

 

[packfan98]

Should be less amped but less cold right?


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Yes. That’s what it’s looking like.

 

[bouncycorn]

Here's the ZR accums thru 18z Saturday, with more falling. Will post the rest later