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Wintry 1/20 - 1/23 Winter Storm

Iceagewhereartthou said:
I would have a hard time putting any stock in the NAM; it performed very poorly in this last storm, especially the 12k.
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Agree for our area it was surprisingly bad. The 3k picked up at go time did good but it was now cast time by then. Rgem was really good but we are a ways for that to come in play. I've seen jan 2002 and 2014 mentioned which both were novelty events for nw sc and ne ga btw. It's pretty dang awesome to be tracking a 2nd storm in a week regardless how this plays out given how bad December was.
 
Tarheelwx said:
I thought a Miller B would always have an initial low that would transfer to a new developing low. This almost always results in CAD. I thought a Miller A had no hand off of one low to another. I didn’t think p-types had anything to do with whether it was a Miller A or B. For instance, couldn’t you have a Miller A in May that was rain only - or for that matter a Miller B with all rain? In sum, doesn’t miller A or Miller B have to do with atmospheric pressures and development, and nothing to do with p-types? Obviously, mixed Ptypes are more synonymous with Miller B’s and less so with Miller A’s. Thanks. TW
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Correct. There was a Miller A in March (I think 2015 or thereabouts) that crushed the Triad with freezing rain
 
gfs not quite as far west w precip vs 6z
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_14.png
 
For my own area I'm fine with flatter, give me multiple days of precip overrunning cold air and I'll be a happy camper. Phase too early, get it too amped and it's back NW..... I know different people need different things for their area.
 
still think you have to love how this looks at this point if you're rdu/clt/upstate. solid snow soundings with a little wiggle room if we come in a bit more amped. give me 25 degrees and snow all day long and ill gladly take qpf as my only worry vs torching 850s.
 
Robert West said:
12z GFS is reviving the 2nd system. About to pull up more moisture out the Gulf, it showed signs of this during the 06z run
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Just me or does the second system likely to be messy because it has nothing to phase with in the northern stream?
 
Through 12z Sat…matches my first call map blend. The second half coming in I think would largely miss or be freezing drizzle. Gonna focus on the first half before worrying about the second half. I like where I stand with this solution. Maybe inch some of the higher totals away from Charlotte tho and boost up more of Virginia.A00F32CC-79E1-48DE-8566-67383FF7EDAA.jpeg
 
gfs_z500_vort_eus_18.png

GFS with second wave would likely be a weak and messy solution as there is no phase with the two northern pieces on screen, just energy freely moving NE and the energy west of the lakes booting it out quickly.
 
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