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Wintry 1/20 - 1/23 Winter Storm

Chazwin said:
The thing is even though there was less phasing on the Euro, the GFS is still trending more NW with the low and the precip and that is gaining support on the GEFS. More than likely we’re probably headed towards a blend of the Euro/GFS/CMC where there is still plenty of moisture back here to the west from overrunning to put down a decent snow with temperatures in the 20s, but the heaviest QPF is east of Hwy 1 where things are aided by the phase. The big question whether or the WAR plays nice and stays backed off to keep the warm nose at bay more
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I still think this is headed that way.....with good deep cold we dont need tons of QPF to get big totals, and the further west you go the better the ratios are anyways, .30 QPF is still 3-6" back west....similar to Jan 3 2002, though that bullseye ends up a little further SE this time :) maybe RDU down to Goldsboro then NE into the tidewaters....Metwannbe is sitting pretty I think.

accum.20020102.gif


I still think when its all said and done the main freezing rain issue will be Hwy 17ish east, and while the central and northern coastal plains might have to deal with pingers mixing in I will gladly take that over some of the freezing rain totals the Euro is giving me right now.
 
Hope this isn’t a whamby post but what is needed for areas west into AL to get back into the game with this? Or is it too late for any major changes like that?
 
We're in a somewhat okay look with the NAM. I think that if it can phase faster, then the wave can move east more quickly with lower heights.
 
Oconeexman said:
Finally someone with some prestige said it. The term "nw trend" is so over used but rarely explained. More times than not it's only the precip field has expanded nw not the Low itself, although that does happen. Robert did a real good job explaining this back in the day when he hung out in these lowly forums before going big time. Thanks Burrel!
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People sometimes confuse the accumulated precipitation output with comparing what is being seen on radar as well I think. A lot of times what is being shown on radar isn’t reaching the ground, and/or not heavy enough to reach the .10 inch threshold to show accumulation on the output. comparing simulated reflectivity with the real time radar would be closer to reality. That’s not to say the precip shield doesn’t verify farther north because it usually does. Just not to the extent that it sometimes seems
 
Dewpoint Dan said:
usually that warm nose is a little further east isnt it ?
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Yes, it usually is. I live in the normal warm bubble. In this depiction, the wedge is building in stronger and faster than usual. That warm spot would fill in the next frame surely all else being equal.

EDIT: It also is downsloping given the modeled wind direction. By this frame, the surface flow has turned due north rather than the typical ene wind from CAD.
namconus_mslp_wind_seus_53.png
 
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Tarheelwx said:
Where is Webb getting a Miller B from? Isn’t this just a hung up front with a low that develops and ride up the coast?
TW
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Yeah, the NAM is Miller A. You can still get a lot of mixed precip types in a Miller A with CAD, depending on the setup. Miller B is a surface low tracking into N Bama / E TN (or NW of there), then reforming along the coast. Miller A / Miller B is very surface low track centric
 
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