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Wintry 1/20 - 1/23 Winter Storm

06z Euro Op run was actually more 'suppressive' than the 00z run. The wave in the SW comes out, but additional shortwave energy is getting dropped into the SW in a psuedo split flow. On the 06z, the main wave thru Iowa is more ahead / on top of the wave over Northern Mexico, and you can see the heights are a touch south thru E VA/NC. Anyway, fine line here between not much of an event and a big storm that cuts inland. @BHS1975 duly noted phasing last night...I think the winning formula to get more folks east of the mountains involved with snow is for the wave complex to drop down positive tilt for a long time, then have a late phase between the 2 streams. That gets the arctic front to the coast quicker, with colder temps aloft as the storm cranks up due to the heights crashing associated with phasing.

Ep75SQs.gif
 
Novice here, but maybe some of you who are more experienced can chime in. Obviously, we
are still fairly far out from the event and much can change, but based on the model handling on the storm yesterday, how do you feel about the chances of a potentially more potent storm next weekend?


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griteater said:
06z Euro Op run was actually more 'suppressive' than the 00z run. The wave in the SW comes out, but additional shortwave energy is getting dropped into the SW in a psuedo split flow. On the 06z, the main wave thru Iowa is more ahead / on top of the wave over Northern Mexico, and you can see the heights are a touch south thru E VA/NC. Anyway, fine line here between not much of an event and a big storm that cuts inland. @BHS1975 duly noted phasing last night...I think the winning formula to get more folks east of the mountains involved with snow is for the wave complex to drop down positive tilt for a long time, then have a late phase between the 2 streams. That gets the arctic front to the coast quicker, with colder temps aloft as the storm cranks up due to the heights crashing associated with phasing.

Ep75SQs.gif
Click to expand...
Great analysis grit! Do you think this gets resolved on the models in the next 24-36hrs or so? There seems to be good agreement on the storm signal and has for days just not on the track/intensity fully yet. I know resolving p-types and their locations will likely be another 72hrs or so.
 
njbarrineau said:
Novice here, but maybe some of you who are more experienced can chime in. Obviously, we
are still fairly far out from the event and much can change, but based on the model handling on the storm yesterday, how do you feel about the chances of a potentially more potent storm next weekend?


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Click to expand...
If you read griteater's post he lays out how that might come about. He's well respected here for his analysis
 
njbarrineau said:
Novice here, but maybe some of you who are more experienced can chime in. Obviously, we
are still fairly far out from the event and much can change, but based on the model handling on the storm yesterday, how do you feel about the chances of a potentially more potent storm next weekend?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
If a storm from the gulf gets too wrapped up the waa is a problem. A weaker storm still delivers the goods, but without the warm nose problems. You don't need tons of moisture to get a good dump over running cold air in place. Many of the best storms are weak ones running by in Fla.
 
njbarrineau said:
I can’t remember that happening at all.


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This wasn't that unusual in the 70's & 80's.
We would get 2 low pressures form in the Gulf and work there way NE days apart.
There was one in the early 80's were we got 2 six inch snows in GVL county 48 hours or less apart from 2 different low pressures.
It has happened just not a lot since 90.
Our elder board members will remember.
 
CaryWx said:
Great analysis grit! Do you think this gets resolved on the models in the next 24-36hrs or so? There seems to be good agreement on the storm signal and has for days just not on the track/intensity fully yet. I know resolving p-types and their locations will likely be another 72hrs or so.
Click to expand...
Thanks for that....yeah, 24-36 hrs to get a better idea sounds about right
 
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