icon very similar to the cmc and nam and euro.
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Wintry 1/20 - 1/23 Winter Storm
- Thread starter packfan98
- Start date
Chattownsnow
Member
I want to believe but it seems to me ensemble support is waning for our general area. Typically I would look at this and be licking my chops at this stage of modeling. However things appear to be trending more towards our east at this time. Carolina’s gonna get smashed again it appears. If Nooga somehow escapes this whole pattern unscathed I’ll be disappointed, but not surprised lol
Iceagewhereartthou
Member
It's a precarious dance. I definitely want to see the QPF come about 100 miles further west to get the upstate and N GA in on this one, but I don't want it to to skip areas further south who are due at the same time. A blend of last nights Euro and UKMET would be good for a lot folks.
- Joined
- Jan 23, 2021
- Messages
- 3,768
- Reaction score
- 11,828
- Location
- Lebanon Township, Durham County NC
If I was along a line from Columbia all the way to Myrtle Beach, I'd be prepping for a hellacious ice storm and pray that sleet or plain rain saves the day.
Cary_Snow95
Member
Icon going for it
This is a warm "tongue" "finger", whatever you want to call it at the surface, it's not the warm nose that often gets discussed (that is in the mid levels) just don't want to confuse anyone, especially the newest of members still trying to learn.
One liners, imby constant questions, low effort post are going to get deleted especially as traffic picks up. Please as has been requested numerous times utilize the whamby/banter thread for that stuff.
Last edited:
this westward shift sure seems familiar - we keep doing it every single storm lol
Philconnors
Member
This almost reminds me of the 1/28/14 storm. Models showed exactly what this is showing precip shield ended up well north into very cold/dry air as we all remember. The setup looks similar at face value. Snow started over south alabama and expanded north.
Even so, the 850 line is much further south from a stronger cold push. It looks more like the Ukmet!
Since I just moved to live on the beach near Morehead City, NC (Emerald Isle to be specific), I'm not used to following weather directly on the coast. How does the ocean affect precip types in a more micro environment? If you're, say, 15 miles inland, does that give you better chance to see frozen precip vs living on the beach? What's the thoughts on getting frozen precip directly on the coast in SE NC? Thanks for any input!
- Joined
- Jan 5, 2017
- Messages
- 3,559
- Reaction score
- 5,518
The NAM had a pretty stout warm layer around 850mb at the 84 hour time stamp, at least in my area.
Attachments
Last night's UKMet was Nirvana....cleared the front thru, then slight delay, then phases the waves well to the SE. Cold and snowy
L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
That’s 10:1 ratio as well. Totals would be even higher! Big storm in the making for ENC
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
I have to be driving into Jacksonville from home in LA, arriving Friday. If current trends keep up, I may have to cut to the coast at Myrtle Beach and hug the coast all the way to Jacksonville. I guess it would be best to drive up as far as I can on Thursday, in case things deteriorate badly.
iGRXY
Member
Expect the SW to likely phase sooner as the trend has been quicker phases . You can already starting to see more digging on the models so the GFS is about to be real telling.
I'm really liking the shift to a colder press over the NE. That would put a lot more people in the game for snow.
That run would be good for singificant snow for the Midlands of SC and the CSRA area. Also a nice sleet event for areas futher south as well. We all need to hope for a stronger cold push with 850s crashing like Rgem model is showing. Maybe a damanging ice storm could be avoided for most areas with that sort of look.
As long as that WAR can keep trending weaker, this might be the winner that us in the southeast parts of CLT metro have been overdue for.
Really liking the upstate thru the SW Piedmont (85 from gsp thru clt) for overrunning/FGEN generated stuff, and eastern central - NE NC/SE VA for coastal stuff With current looks, this isn’t just a flat out Miller A/hybrid given inverted trough in AL/TN. it begins initially as overrunning for areas west as well
Tarheelwx
Member
I thought a Miller B would always have an initial low that would transfer to a new developing low. This almost always results in CAD. I thought a Miller A had no hand off of one low to another. I didn’t think p-types had anything to do with whether it was a Miller A or B. For instance, couldn’t you have a Miller A in May that was rain only - or for that matter a Miller B with all rain? In sum, doesn’t miller A or Miller B have to do with atmospheric pressures and development, and nothing to do with p-types? Obviously, mixed Ptypes are more synonymous with Miller B’s and less so with Miller A’s. Thanks. TW
iGRXY
Member
That's the 12z. The 0Z is the time period at 84 hours
No, it isn't. You're looking at the valid time, not Init.
first call subject to change fkls we are close to the event now is the time to issue these.Purple)6-12”+ snow, Red)3-6” snow/sleet mix, Blue)1-2”snow ice mix south, Yeller) 0-1” snow with ice SC south, a lot rides on lack of qpf could change 25-50miles west or east but really no major surprises instore thank you credit me if you want to copy my forecast (using blend of gfs,German,icon and dryer solutions) haven’t budged past 4 days I’m not changing by the run!
Hypsometric
Member
Raleigh sounding at 84 on the RGEM.
This one is near Clinton, east of I-95 in Sampson County.
This one is near Clinton, east of I-95 in Sampson County.
Lets hope that we can trend towards a weaker WAR from this point forward. Based on history,I think that's quite unlikely,but who knows. If the Regm Model is right with the cold push,this would help many areas escape from a major ice storm and would help to put many more areas futher south in the snow zone.
Yeah, that would really match that look of the January 2002 storm that was posted earlier. Pretty classic look for the Carolinas
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
Member
2024 Supporter
2017-2023 Supporter
First call 3-4 days out with lots of uncertainity in models is uncalled for. The UKMET bias is strong with this map. Just saying.....
brad is live now. saying primarily snow/sleet for clt as of now. 1-2" per the ensembles.
www.facebook.com
Brad Panovich Meteorologist
------------- Meteorologist, Charlotte, North Carolina. 364,235 likes · 24,921 talking about this. Chief Meteorologist at WCNC-TV Weather Geek Extraordinaire!
www.facebook.com
That’s what webb told me as well for the CLT areabrad is live now. saying primarily snow/sleet for clt as of now.
Brad Panovich Meteorologist
------------- Meteorologist, Charlotte, North Carolina. 364,235 likes · 24,921 talking about this. Chief Meteorologist at WCNC-TV Weather Geek Extraordinaire!
Hypsometric
Member
Wow that’s something for Brad… he almost always starts out mentioning ice for CLTbrad is live now. saying primarily snow/sleet for clt as of now.
Brad Panovich Meteorologist
------------- Meteorologist, Charlotte, North Carolina. 364,235 likes · 24,921 talking about this. Chief Meteorologist at WCNC-TV Weather Geek Extraordinaire!
I am across the sound from you. The ocean has a moderating influence on our weather and the effect of the ocean lessens as you head farther inland. In this case, the warmer ocean waters will keep us warm enough to keep us mainly rain. However, areas farther inland (west of Highway 17) will be cooler which will allow for more impacts from snow, sleet, and freezing rain. For us to get snow, the low needs to move well offshore to allow colder air to be pulled in from areas to our northwest. So in order for us to get a decent storm, areas farther west will usually receive little to no precip which the majority of this board would not like.
Iceagewhereartthou
Member
I would have a hard time putting any stock in the NAM; it performed very poorly in this last storm, especially the 12k.
iGRXY
Member
WAA with colder 850's and CAD definitely screams more FGEN. I really think 85 from NE Georgia through CLT is in a sweet spot as we will start getting the coastal moisture as well. But definitely Eastern NC looks great right now too.
Need another jet streak somewhere near eastern FL
Cad Wedge NC
Member
Yeah. But the 3K did very well.
That's because there were issues with p-types due to its lower resolution. It really wasn't that far off on a synoptic level.
Howdy neighbor! My parents live on the sound right behind the Speedway station as soon as you come on the island, so you may be able to see their boat dock ha! I live on the island right near the EI/Indian Beach line. I really appreciate your input. I hate that we will likely see all rain. I was out west for this past event and had my flight canceled to EWN Sunday due to the storm over the weekend, so I missed that too haha! Maybe we can luck out with this one some how. Where are you in reference to the bridge coming onto the island?