I bet DT will be honking for Virginia. Since y’all posted his info do you care to show his thinking once he issues it later today? I bet he does 1-2 feet for north-eastern NC into Virginia. I could see that happening like the euro showed.
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Wintry 1/20 - 1/23 Winter Storm
- Thread starter packfan98
- Start date
See this dance too many times. I think areas along and N of 85 are sitting pretty.
Would feel much better if it were colder. Then if the precip doesn’t happen we are stuck with a nasty cold rainy day.I'll take this 96 hours out ....
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Snownut
Member
But are you talking about upstate sc north of 85 or you talking Nc?
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Hypsometric
Member
Absolutely. This plus just the general inabilty for coarser global models to accurately predict the northwestern shield of these type of events makes me wonder just how much it could be underdone.This could help with that, no
Flotown
Member
Com
Come on northwest bout 100 miles ease!!! Seriously though i20 in bama and Georgia look good to me
SC and NC precip will fill in by go time not Everytime but if I was a betting man lol
King euro about to be dethroned yet again. It’s prob gonna show 12-18” near Virginia Beach tho and I’m interested to see how much for Raleigh can they do 3-6”…maybe more?!
packfan98
Moderator
GEFS Looks to have improved from previous runs for NC and SC as a whole. Mean precip looks to have shifted further NW too.
Heelyes
Member
I realize some areas are missing out on this map but every state on this board has some snow showing, that seems like it's pretty close to board wide. Whamby if necessary.GEFS Looks to have improved from previous runs for NC and SC as a whole. Mean precip looks to have shifted further NW too.
Drscottsmith
Member
Does confidence increase with a particular model when events occur so close together (e.g. The ____ did so well with the 1/15-16 event that we should pay most attention to it's output for the 1/22 event)?
Cary_Snow95
Member
Gross
snowlover91
Member
CMC is pretty suppressed.
Much better press over the NE though.CMC is pretty suppressed.
snowlover91
Member
Yeah but it won't matter if there is no QPF to work with. CMC a bit of an outlier but goes to show this isn't a guaranteed storm like Euro/GFS show, things can still shift bad here if the timing isn't right.
canadian east.
Beautiful 
Basically we should want mix of what Icon model has(less suppressed) and what the CMC has(better cold press and allowing the 850s to be futher SE)?
Downeastnc
Member
This why I like the flatter solutions, high ratio snows........
This is most likely well underdone as well...the trends are exactly what I hoped they would be down the stretch back to a less amped more traditional overrunning setup...again I totally expect someone between you and me to get 6-12" out of this....just need to trend to keep up, there will be some mixing to start I think but by Friday night its gonna be all snow and Sat gonna be glorious...
I mean I dont hate it....
Hypsometric
Member
Avalanche
Member
TWC going with climo saying NW NC foothills and mountains see some snow and Raleigh on east rain.
L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
Yeah I’m thinking the CMC ensembles will not agree with it either
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Yeah, this setup isn't climo. Definitely much colder and RDU will at least see sleet if they can get the precip.
Don’t worry about the Canadian if your in Raleigh and s/e Virginia. I’m largely taking a blend with the latest CMC/GFS and new euro about to run I think it will spit some totals as far west as Raleigh area and Virginia for warning criteria 3-6” and 6-12” in spots. 
Due to staffing issues they had me and @BIG FROSTY getting 12-18” at hr 0 with the last storm. Ended up 2-6”. Complete joke no model even showed that.
snowlover91
Member
RGEM was a shift less amped and drier as well though. Suppression is still a possibility if the southern vort hangs back too much, imo.
Snowflowxxl
Member
UKMET is much more south vs last night
GEFS really ramping up the precip over GA and Carolinas the last several runs...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Sounds like last storm and the bias the UK has at this lead.
Snowflowxxl
Member
Snowflowxxl
Member
The UK met last week at 90 hours was close to spot on. It’s biases show more in 120-144 range
Avalanche
Member
Eerily similar to Birdman's forecast.
Cary_Snow95
Member
Pretty easy to see why I’m favoring a precip sheild further NW then modeled, this setup is driven by 850mb/700mb WAA and FGEN which is responsible for overrunning in the first place, imo even with the artic front itself, there’s already insentropic upglide, globals don’t handle this well at all, mesoscale models do 
