Just noticed the ICON was cold from the top down. When you’re at -6 at the 850 level and at the surface, you’re going to do better than any clown map.
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Wintry 1/20 - 1/23 Winter Storm
- Thread starter packfan98
- Start date
Cary_Snow95
Member
Second wave screams marginal. I’m all in on wave 1 with a true cold source
Storm5
Member
Ugh temps would be a problem for many of n the second system . Boarder line for many 5 days out hardly ever works
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Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Slowly but surely the precipitation types are getting closer to what GEFS mean was doing with the last system as the OP GFS amped more and more with other modeling following. What I see this time around are other OP models amping before the GFS to an extent.
We actually have no idea what's going to happen and we are what? Approaching 90 hours out from the setup or even less?
The only sure thing looks like an arctic front coming through.. everything agrees there...
This GEFS run looks good for areas east vs areas west, less overrunning more weak Miller A
Cary_Snow95
Member
Cmc looks like yesterdays 12z
I'm willing to take my chances with the second wave provided the first delivers too. The table is set for exactly that possibility too.
The GFS is splitting things up. I admit I feel okay with that look given how the GFS performed around this lead time last event. Can we just meet in the middle and have a nice Miller-A that gets the whole SE and up/ further off the coast for Eastern NC too?
Really not a great trend
Ok now that’s bad
Cary_Snow95
Member
Everyone worried about amping an hour ago. I’ve been concerned about this stretching out since yesterday. Euro starting to be on an island
Cary_Snow95
Member
NAM is even more elongated than cmc
Z
Zander98al
Guest
This last event had everything pulling away from the euro solution, and then the euro actually was more sane than the rest, and they ended up caving back to the euro if I remember correctly. I think it coincided with the system getting samplesd
Snowflowxxl
Member
Everyone should still be concerned about amping and temps
Cary_Snow95
Member
Cmc still has it but has been trending weaker every run
there’s honestly just many reasons to be skeptical about this storm with certain things
and we’re seeing why, we saw the perfect runs a couple days ago so didn’t have a great idea on what could go wrong, now we’ve seen both ways
and we’re seeing why, we saw the perfect runs a couple days ago so didn’t have a great idea on what could go wrong, now we’ve seen both ways