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Wintry 1/20 - 1/23 Winter Storm

Reminder; UKMET tends to do well when we talk about phasing of the northern and southern branches.... it was identified a long while back; not sure what's changed with other modeling in regards to it.. this is coming from NWS, not just hobbyists
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Pretty easy to see why I’m favoring a precip sheild further NW then modeled, this setup is driven by 850mb/700mb WAA and FGEN which is responsible for overrunning in the first place, imo even with the artic front itself, there’s already insentropic upglide, globals don’t handle this well at all, mesoscale models do View attachment 107811View attachment 107812View attachment 107813View attachment 107814
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Perfect illustration. Over running always performs on the NW side of these systems and generally you see it along the 85 corridor.
 
This has been one of the more tricky set ups I’ve seen in a while. Don’t envy the Mets on this one. Could be a big storm for the coast or verify 200 miles NW. both are equally likely imo
 
Snowflowxxl said:
This has been one of the more tricky set ups I’ve seen in a while. Don’t envy the Mets on this one. Could be a big storm for the coast or verify 200 miles NW. both are equally likely imo
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Yeah I don't even know what to think about this for the Atlanta area. I've been struggling to understand this set up....I mean I know it's a wave of low pressure causing overrunning on the edge of the cold air mass, but I'm still struggling with understanding how we can maximize potential snow/sleet in the metro area. Even if it trends northwest, not even sure it'll be cold enough for snow here. It's mainly why I've been quiet and just reading the posts and analyzing the models.
 
For Mountain and Foothill folks,
Meteorologist from Morganton NC on another board said this.

IMO, I think eastern NC is the place to be with this type of set-up. I am trying to think of a time when a front stalled along the coast and moisture works it way all the way back to the mountains, and I really do not know of any off the top of my head for a winter storm. Not saying it is impossible, just a lot has to go right. Coastal areas have the better chance right now.
 
The models sure seem to be shifting east wrt my area of the world. The million dollar question is how much will these models trend NW (and they very well may not) and unless we see some more amplification, this could be another swing and maybe not a compete miss but a foul ball. Pedestrian 1" type SN.

What say you N GA posters? How comfortable are you with the trends of the past 12 hours or so?
 
Hey mods, if this freezing rain event (1st wave) becomes evident can a second thread be made to accommodate both waves, just a suggestion. It looks like it's starting to become more clear of 2 events. Or just wrap it all into one big thread? everybody else can chime in.
 
DixieBlizzard said:
The models sure seem to be shifting east wrt my area of the world. The million dollar question is how much will these models trend NW (and they very well may not) and unless we see some more amplification, this could be another swing and maybe not a compete miss but a foul ball. Pedestrian 1" type SN.

What say you N GA posters? How comfortable are you with the trends of the past 12 hours or so?
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I'm waiting to see if the EURO shows this again for a 4th straight run
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FallsLake said:
A third of them look similar to the Canadian. So at this point, I would say a miss (at least for central NC) is a real possibility.
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A certain poster who's no longer here would point out that 2 thirds show a good hit. I will take this look any day.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
There’s many notorious examples of global NWP also whiffing on overrunning while mesoscale models caught on. December 2017, February 2014 are big ones, this list goes on
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Could you explain how the overrunning could and does occur in the I-85 corridor? I remember both of those storms you referenced very well. Just trying to learn about the actual process itself.


Thanks for all your insight the past few days. I have learned a lot from your posts.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
DixieBlizzard said:
The models sure seem to be shifting east wrt my area of the world. The million dollar question is how much will these models trend NW (and they very well may not) and unless we see some more amplification, this could be another swing and maybe not a compete miss but a foul ball. Pedestrian 1" type SN.

What say you N GA posters? How comfortable are you with the trends of the past 12 hours or so?
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Not too worried. Thermals look good for us even with n/w trend in mind. Energy needs to phase earlier but it seems like all winter the models push storms back and slow them down by 12-18 hours. As said above Precipitation shield is almost always under modeled. I’m not worried, just watch and wait!
 
LovingGulfLows said:
Yeah I don't even know what to think about this for the Atlanta area. I've been struggling to understand this set up....I mean I know it's a wave of low pressure causing overrunning on the edge of the cold air mass, but I'm still struggling with understanding how we can maximize potential snow/sleet in the metro area. Even if it trends northwest, not even sure it'll be cold enough for snow here. It's mainly why I've been quiet and just reading the posts and analyzing the models.
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Wouldn’t this be like the Dec 2017 over running event, but with a colder airmass in place? I’m above my pay grade here so please let me know if I’m not seeing the differences.
 
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