Wintry 1/20 - 1/23 Winter Storm

[SD]

View attachment 107263Really not a great trend

Yep you can't lose the polar wave if you want the first system to work unless you pull the wave to its SW out and start interacting but then you open the bag of ptype concerns creeping NW. This setup was clean the other day a strong polar wave digging deep and giving us a nice Miller A. Now it's a convoluted caveat driven mess

 

[NCSNOW]

UKMET? Use to be king of sniffing out pahses

 

[WXinCanton]

 

[jrips27]

A lot going on out there. Lower than usual confidence with all the energy flying around. So hug whichever model shows the most snow for you lol

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

there’s honestly just many reasons to be skeptical about this storm with certain things
and we’re seeing why, we saw the perfect runs a couple days ago so didn’t have a great idea on what could go wrong, now we’ve seen both ways

I feel like even the bad evolving models have printed a winter storm most of the time .. I feel like that should already be reeled in at this point now we just figure out who sleets and who snows

 

[Arcc]

View attachment 107263Really not a great trend

The one time we need the polar wave to slow(like they always do) it speeds up.

 

[Faco Thomas]

Safe to say the Midlands of SC and the CSRA always find a way to fail. Lighter precipitation overall and areas from Aiken and points west doesn't even change over to frozen precip until the end. I would think a weaker system means more snow/sleet,not more rain.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

I was thinking the second system wasnt as cold, but geez the gefs mean has us in the 20s already for it, just more WAA, both of these setups have very cold surface temps it appears

 

[Stormsfury]

The run to run consistently is like trying to gauge if you're about to fart or shart...and you have 30 seconds to decide to hightail it to the bathroom...

The GFS op and basically guidance are having issues keying in on energy just flying around in the atmosphere.

 

[Cary_Snow95]

The trailing wave is what screws everything up. It pushes down on the flow and stretches the main vort back to the sw. Someone correct me if I’m wrong, but the window to trend back to a vort tucked underneath the main Ns vort is diminishing. We’re only 60-72 hours from the energy in the southwest elongating

 

[NCSNOW]

 

[Myfrotho704_]

The trailing wave is what screws everything up. It pushes down on the flow and stretches the main vort back to the sw

It ----- with our ridging behind the main polar wave that would help it dig

 

[Myfrotho704_]

I’m not even concerned tho. Someone here will get wintry wx later this week/next weekend, these exact struggles happened February 2014 as well

 

[GaWx]

Here’s the mean from the 12Z GEFS for wave #2: will it do the typical NW shift from here? We’ll see. If it didn’t, this would be near the ideal track for coastal SE snow.

 

[NCSNOW]

Gawx speacil

 

[iGRXY]

Still think models are having a hard time latching onto which piece of energy. Odds are things get more amped and you get much more precip back to the west. Just depends on what the upper levels look like because cold at the surface looks legit.

 

[BullCityWx]

Not a look you see everyday

 

[LovingGulfLows]

The run to run consistently is like trying to gauge if you're about to fart or shart...and you have 30 seconds to decide to hightail it to the bathroom...

The GFS op and basically guidance are having issues keying in on energy just flying around in the atmosphere.

That's certainly an interesting way to describe it. I'm worried the cold air mass simply won't verify as deep which means the whole thing moves NW.

 

[KyloG]

UK is impressive at this range...

 

[DopplerWx]

GEFS members